Alert at Maradi: preventing food crisis using price signals

National early warning systems of Sahelian countries are mainly based on biophysics models to predict agricultural production shortages and prevent food crisis. The objective of this paper is to show that cereal market prices also bring useful information on future food availability that could complete current early warning disposals. Indeed, at any point in time prices are informative not only on the state of present food availability but also on agents' expectations about future availability. The research is based on the exploitation of the statistical properties of price series. It aims at detecting movements in the prices trend signalling a coming crisis. We first identify markets playing a leading role in price formation at the national and regional level through the estimation of VAR models. The second step consists in identifying crisis periods and then the price shocks characterises during the period which precedes a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The data set encompasses 50 markets belonging to three countries: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, over the period 1990-2008. The results show that past price shocks on a few number of leading marketplaces can help preventing coming crises.Food security ; Sahel ; grain markets ; early warning systems ; discret choice panel model

Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises in West Africa by Using Price Signals

The aim of this paper is to exploit grain price data to detect the warning signs of looming food crises in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Firstly we identify which markets play a leading role at the national and regional level. The second step consists of identifying crisis periods and characterizing price movements during the period proceeding a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The results show that monitoring price movements on "leading markets" during crucial periods of the year can help in forecasting future crises.Food security, Africa, Niger, early warning systems, discrete choice panel model, Food Security and Poverty, Q18, C25, D40, O18,

Non-invasive brain stimulation can induce paradoxical facilitation. Are these neuroenhancements transferable and meaningful to security services?

For ages, we have been looking for ways to enhance our physical and cognitive capacities in order to augment our security. One potential way to enhance our capacities may be to externally stimulate the brain. Methods of non-invasive brain stimulation (NIBS), such as repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) and transcranial electrical stimulation (tES), have been recently developed to modulate brain activity. Both techniques are relatively safe and can transiently modify motor and cognitive functions outlasting the stimulation period. The purpose of this paper is to review data suggesting that NIBS can enhance motor and cognitive performance in healthy volunteers. We frame these findings in the context of whether they may serve security purposes. Specifically, we review studies reporting that NIBS induces paradoxical facilitation in motor (precision, speed, strength, acceleration endurance, and execution of daily motor task) and cognitive functions (attention, impulsive behavior, risk-taking, working memory, planning, and deceptive capacities). Although transferability and meaningfulness of these NIBS-induced paradoxical facilitations into real-life situations are not clear yet, NIBS may contribute at improving training of motor and cognitive functions relevant for military, civil, and forensic security services. This is an enthusiastic perspective that also calls for fair and open debates on the ethics of using NIBS in healthy individuals to enhance normal functions

Impact of climate related shocks on child's health in Burkina Faso

The aim of this paper is to estimate the impact of weather related income shocks on child health in rural Burkina Faso where rain fed agriculture is the dominant production system. We combine health data originating from the 2008 household survey with meteorological data to define shocks at the child level. We first estimate the marginal effect of rainfall at various ages on the child's health in order to identify the critical period during which deprivation has the most severe consequences. Then we look for a different impact of shocks on girls and boys that would reflect a gender bias in intra household resource allocation. We also assess the household ability to smooth consumption by testing for an asymmetric effect of rainfall shocks according to their size and by testing the impact of shocks according to household endowments. Results evidence a strong relationship between rainfall shocks during the prenatal period and child health. Households are not able to dampen small but negative rainfall shocks. Unexpectedly, girls are less severely affected by shocks than boys. The robustness of results is tested by using the sibling and difference-in-differences estimators as well as placebo regressions

Abnormal Striatal Dopamine Transmission in Schizophrenia

Despite numerous revisions and reformulations, dopamine (DA) hypothesis of schizophrenia remains a pivotal neurochemical hypothesis of this illness. The aim of this review is to expose and discuss findings from positron emission tomography (PET) or single-photon-emission computed tomography (SPECT) studies investigating DA function in the striatum of medicated, drug-naïve or drug-free patients with schizophrenia and in individuals at risk compared with healthy volunteers. DA function was studied at several levels: i) at a presynaptic level where neuroimaging studies investigating DOPA uptake capacity clearly show an increase of DA synthesis in patients with schizophrenia; ii) at a synaptic level where neuroimaging studies investigating dopamine transporter availability (DAT) does not bring any evidence of dysfunction; iii) and finally, neuroimaging studies investigating DA receptor density show a mild increase of D2 receptor density in basic condition and, an hyperreactivity of DA system in dynamic condition. These results are discussed regarding laterality, sub-regions of striatum and implications for the at-risk population. Striatal DA abnormalities are now clearly demonstrated in patients with schizophrenia and at risk population and could constitute an endophenotype of schizophrenia. Subtle sub-clinical striatal DA abnormalities in at risk population could be a biomarker of transition from a vulnerability state to the expression of frank psychosis

How Much Do Benzodiazepines Matter for Electroconvulsive Therapy in Patients With Major Depression?

BACKGROUND: Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is one of the most effective treatments for major depressive disorder (MDD), especially in cases of treatment-resistant MDD. Because of their pharmacological profiles, benzodiazepines (BZDs) are suspected to decrease the efficacy of ECT. This study investigated the effect of BZDs on ECT-induced clinical outcomes and ECT course parameters in patients with MDD. METHOD: The impact of BZDs on severity of depression (Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale scores) and on ECT course parameters (seizure threshold, clinical and electroencephalographic seizure duration) was investigated in 70 patients with MDD who received an ECT course using dose-titration method (22 received concomitant BZDs). RESULTS: Lower remission rates (52.0%) and smaller decreases in Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale scores were observed in the non-BZD group than in the BZD group (81.2%, P = 0.02). There were no significant differences between the 2 groups regarding seizure duration and seizure threshold. LIMITATIONS: This was a retrospective study. Impact of BZDs on anxiety and cognition was not assessed. CONCLUSIONS: Benzodiazepines increased the clinical efficacy of ECT when delivered using dose-titration method and bitemporal stimulation. Further studied are needed to understand the interaction between BZDs and ECT on clinical outcomes