New sobriety: Drinking less wine to save the planet?

In 2015, the Paris agreements set a global framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to keep the global temperature increase below 2 degrees between the beginning of the industrial era and 2050. Agriculture, which accounts for 25% of global CO2 emissions, plays a major role in achieving these goals. To this end, the European Parliament has adopted the "Farm to fork" strategy, which aims to reduce both CO2 emissions and the use of pesticides for food products. In order to meet these targets, average individual emissions should be 2 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year, knowing that, for example, today, on average, each French person emits 9.5 tCO2/year. Citizens who wish to contribute and reduce their carbon footprint can act on different emission items: their travel, their food, their housing, their purchases of goods and services. In France, on average, food accounts for a quarter of individual emissions. Knowing that the average impact of a standard 10-12cl glass of wine is around 180 grams of CO2 and that the target per meal should be 500 grams of CO2e, what will be the trade-offs for consumers who are aware of these issues ? Will consumers decide to limit their consumption of wine in the face of environmental issues, as some already do with meat? Will communication shift from the dangers of alcohol on health to the environmental impact of wine consumption, in a "one health" approach? Faced with this risk, the wine industry's response and its consumer information strategy will be crucial. Players will have to provide information on their assets in terms of sustainability (environmental, economic and social) while adapting to new legislation and consumer demands

Une prospective pour la filière française des vins biologiques

La viticulture biologique française est une filière dynamique. Si certaines évolutions de la demande de bio sont similaires à celles observées pour le vin conventionnel (rosé, Bag-in-box, …), d'autres comme la demande de vins sans sulfites ou de vins « vegan » interpellent plus spécifiquement ce segment. La filière des vins bio se trouve à la fois devoir respecter la règlementation viticole et celle de la production en bio, que ce soit par le cahier des charges de production de la matière première « raisin » que de sa transformation en vin. Elle doit satisfaire des consommateurs exigeants et fédérer des producteurs passionnés parfois jusqu'à l'excès. Face à cette forte dynamique de développement soutenue par une demande qui contourne partiellement les circuits classiques de distribution, la filière française des vins bio (France Vins Bio) a souhaité mener un exercice de prospective conduit par FranceAgriMer et Montpellier SupAgro. La présente communication va présenter, après un rappel des grands principes et de la méthode de prospective utilisée, les thématiques explorées, les principales hypothèses combinées et l'essentiel des scénarios sur lesquels elles débouchent

The relevance of foresight exercises for wine territories facing global polycrisis

International audienceWhy is it relevant for actors in a territory in crisis to carry out a foresight exercise? The actors in a territory in crisis (economic crisis, climate crisis, etc.) are collectively facing a decrease in resources and performance. Among these actors, the gap between the realities and the perception of these realities becomes more pronounced, resulting in a loss of meaning and even identity. Opportunistic strategies multiply to the detriment of the common interest. Through a participatory process, the foresight exercise is likely to bring out different contributions within the territory in crisis: the reconstruction of common shared representations, the disarmament of short-term conflicts, the exit from the dictatorship of urgency, the creation of collective strategies to proactively bring about a common future that is most favorable for all

Une prospective pour la filière française des vins biologiques

La viticulture biologique française est une filière dynamique. Si certaines évolutions de la demande de bio sont similaires à celles observées pour le vin conventionnel (rosé, Bag-in-box, …), d'autres comme la demande de vins sans sulfites ou de vins « vegan » interpellent plus spécifiquement ce segment. La filière des vins bio se trouve à la fois devoir respecter la règlementation viticole et celle de la production en bio, que ce soit par le cahier des charges de production de la matière première « raisin » que de sa transformation en vin. Elle doit satisfaire des consommateurs exigeants et fédérer des producteurs passionnés parfois jusqu'à l'excès. Face à cette forte dynamique de développement soutenue par une demande qui contourne partiellement les circuits classiques de distribution, la filière française des vins bio (France Vins Bio) a souhaité mener un exercice de prospective conduit par FranceAgriMer et Montpellier SupAgro. La présente communication va présenter, après un rappel des grands principes et de la méthode de prospective utilisée, les thématiques explorées, les principales hypothèses combinées et l'essentiel des scénarios sur lesquels elles débouchent

Travaux de prospective sur l'adaptation de la viticulture au changement climatique : quelles séries d'événements pourraient favoriser différentes stratégies d'adaptation ?

A multidisciplinary group of researchers and experts of public bodies working on the French wine sector met together to elaborate a foresight exercice with the construction of the plausible ways leading to four different adaptation strategies to climate change of the French wine sector to climate change. For the implementation of this work, the group, considered a single climatic scenario and difined four strategies of adaptation incorporating both geographical mobility and of integration of technological changes, used assumptions from three sources: assumptions from researchers of various disciplines in their own disciplinary field, pre-existing assumptions from former foresight works and assumptions defined according to the statements of actors of the sector on the impacts of climate change and on the possible methods of adaptation. All these assumptions were written in the form of simple sentences, giving one version and its contrary. The various assumptions were selected and then combined between them in order to create a blend within the disciplinary fields, without however inferring of orientation. The result of this work is the join-construction of four plausible ways each one leading to one of the four preselected strategies of adaptation: "conservative" strategy where the evolutions are limited, a "nomade" strategy where the relocalisation of the vineyards is the main vector of adaptation, an “innovating” strategy where the adaptation is the result of the systematic integration of innovations, and finally towards a "liberal" strategy largely opened to any kind of changes. These ways and strategies are not supposed to give a predictive image of the future. However while proposing possible or plausible futures, this work provides material which could be debated within the sector, without immediate challenges that could possibly bias the discussion From the expression of the challenges and consequences of the various ways and strategies in which they result, the actors of the French wine sector will be able to start a strategic reflection. The presentation will be focused on the description of the four ways leading to adaptation strategies and their elaboration. Methodology is specified in another article "Adaptation to the climate change: interest of a prospective approach", same authors

Adaptation au changement climatique : l'intérêt d'une démarche prospective

The current challenges of the agronomic research and in particular the adaptation of agriculture to climate change, require a very broad disciplinary mobilization. To meet these challenges, which go beyond its disciplinary and territorial organization, the INRA initiated a new system of interdisciplinary piloting of research. Thus, the métaprogramme ACCAF is trying to understand the joint effects of the various modifications caused by climate change on terrestrial farming and natural environments, and to define adaptation strategies of adaptation as well as their environmental and socio-economic consequences. Within this framework, twenty-three research laboratories have been collaborating in the project LACCAVE and united their efforts in the project LACCAVE in order to examine the effects of climate change on the vine and wine sector. In addition to six disciplinary working groups, this project is made up of an interdisciplinary group including researchers and experts of public institution working with the sector, which has carried out a foresight exercise. By directing the reflection towards a medium-long term future (2030–2050), this prospective exercise authorizes us to leave the temporal horizon of the negotiation and the dictatorship of emergency. As the long-term future is neither known nor recognizable, the evolutions are considered as combinations of assumptions expressed in one potential form and its opposite. For the prospective in the LACCAVE program, four strategies of adaptation of viticulture for 2030–2050 were predefined and a collective and pluridisciplinary work made possible the writing of a plausible way of events leading to each strategy. These results will then be used to debate with the actors of the wine sector at various geographical levels, in order to contribute to the development and the consolidation of choices of strategies of adaptation of the vineyards to climate change. The presentation will focus on this original methodology and its specific implementation. Stories are detailed in another article "Work of prospective on the adaptation of the viticulture to climate change: which series of events could support various adaptation strategies?

Lessons from a Prospective on the French Wine Industry Under Climate Change (2050)

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Quelles actions pour la filière vigne et vin face au changement climatique ?: Sélection de propositions issues d’une démarche participative et de la consultation d’instances professionnelles viticoles

The document is a scientific contribution to the construction of the climate strategy of the French wine industry. It presents a selection of actions to address the issue of climate change, based on a consultation conducted in 2019 in the main French wine regions, and following a foresight exercise carried out since 2015 by the authors of this document. The selection method for the 800 actions is detailed, crossing codification and evaluation by the group of experts. The 38 selected actions are then presented according to eight areas, defined before the consultation: knowledge on wine-growing areas, viticultural practices, plant material, winemaking, market knowledge, R&D, mitigation, communication. Each completed, ongoing or planned action is briefly described and then associated with research projects identified by the group of experts. The analysis shows the diversity of possible options, often already tested, and the importance of sharing this knowledge between the wine regions.Le document est une contribution scientifique à la construction de la stratégie climat de la filière vigne et vin en France. Il présente une sélection d’actions visant à répondre à l’enjeu du changement climatique, en partant d’une consultation réalisée en 2019 dans les principales régions viticoles françaises, et faisant suite à une démarche de prospective animée depuis 2015 par les auteurs de ce document. La méthode de sélection des 800 actions est détaillée, croisant codification et évaluation par le groupe d’experts. Les 38 actions proposées sont ensuite présentées selon huit domaines, définis avant la consultation : connaissance des zones viticoles, pratiques viticoles, matériel végétal, vinification, connaissance des marchés, R&D, atténuation, communication. Chaque action, qu’elle soit réalisée, en cours ou envisagée, est décrite brièvement puis associée à des projets de recherches recensés par ailleurs par le groupe d’experts. L’analyse montre la diversité des options possibles, souvent déjà testées, et l’importance de partager ces connaissances entre les régions viticoles

From scenarios to pathways: lessons from a foresight study on the French wine industry under climate change

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