Real Versus Pseudo-International Systemic Risk: Some Lessons from History

This paper considers the meaning of domestic and international systemic risk. It examines scenarios that have been adduced as creating systemic risk both within countries and among them. It distinguishes between the concepts of real and pseudo-systemic risk. We examine the history of episodes commonly viewed either as financial crises or as evidencing systemic risk to glean lessons for today. We also present some statistical evidence on possible recent systemic risk linkages between the stock markets of emerging countries. The paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons yielded by the record.

Scientific Objectives, Measurement Needs, and Challenges Motivating the PARAGON Aerosol Initiative

Aerosols are involved in a complex set of processes that operate across many spatial and temporal scales. Understanding these processes, and ensuring their accurate representation in models of transport, radiation transfer, and climate, requires knowledge of aerosol physical, chemical, and optical properties and the distributions of these properties in space and time. To derive aerosol climate forcing, aerosol optical and microphysical properties and their spatial and temporal distributions, and aerosol interactions with clouds, need to be understood. Such data are also required in conjunction with size-resolved chemical composition in order to evaluate chemical transport models and to distinguish natural and anthropogenic forcing. Other basic parameters needed for modeling the radiative influences of aerosols are surface reflectivity and three-dimensional cloud fields. This large suite of parameters mandates an integrated observing and modeling system of commensurate scope. The Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON) concept, designed to meet this requirement, is motivated by the need to understand climate system sensitivity to changes in atmospheric constituents, to reduce climate model uncertainties, and to analyze diverse collections of data pertaining to aerosols. This paper highlights several challenges resulting from the complexity of the problem. Approaches for dealing with them are offered in the set of companion papers

A new approach to generating research-quality data through citizen science: The USA National Phenology Monitoring System

Phenology is one of the most sensitive biological responses to climate change, and recent changes in phenology have the potential to shake up ecosystems. In some cases, it appears they already are. Thus, for ecological reasons it is critical that we improve our understanding of species’ phenologies and how these phenologies are responding to recent, rapid climate change. Phenological events like flowering and bird migrations are easy to observe, culturally important, and, at a fundamental level, naturally inspire human curiosity— thus providing an excellent opportunity to engage citizen scientists. The USA National Phenology Network has recently initiated a national effort to encourage people at different levels of expertise—from backyard naturalists to professional scientists—to observe phenological events and contribute to a national database that will be used to greatly improve our understanding of spatio-temporal variation in phenology and associated phenological responses to climate change.

Traditional phenological observation protocols identify specific dates at which individual phenological events are observed. The scientific usefulness of long-term phenological observations could be improved with a more carefully structured protocol. At the USA-NPN we have developed a new approach that directs observers to record each day that they observe an individual plant, and to assess and report the state of specific life stages (or phenophases) as occurring or not occurring on that plant for each observation date. Evaluation is phrased in terms of simple, easy-to-understand, questions (e.g. “Do you see open flowers?”), which makes it very appropriate for a citizen science audience. From this method, a rich dataset of phenological metrics can be extracted, including the duration of a phenophase (e.g. open flowers), the beginning and end points of a phenophase (e.g. traditional phenological events such as first flower and last flower), multiple distinct occurrences of phenophases within a single growing season (e.g multiple flowering events, common in drought-prone regions), as well as quantification of sampling frequency and observational uncertainties. These features greatly enhance the utility of the resulting data for statistical analyses addressing questions such as how phenological events vary in time and space, and in response to global change. This new protocol is an important step forward, and its widespread adoption will increase the scientific value of data collected by citizen scientists.
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Faculty-Librarian Collaboration in Building the Curriculum for the Millennium: The US Experience

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68104/2/10.1177_034003529902500402.pd

Critical Exponents of the pure and random-field Ising models

We show that current estimates of the critical exponents of the three-dimensional random-field Ising model are in agreement with the exponents of the pure Ising system in dimension 3 - theta where theta is the exponent that governs the hyperscaling violation in the random case.Comment: 9 pages, 4 encapsulated Postscript figures, REVTeX 3.

Altered Lysosomal Proteins in Neural-Derived Plasma Exosomes in Preclinical Alzheimer Disease

OBJECTIVE: Diverse autolysosomal proteins were quantified in neurally derived blood exosomes from patients with Alzheimer disease (AD) and controls to investigate disordered neuronal autophagy. METHODS: Blood exosomes obtained once from patients with AD (n = 26) or frontotemporal dementia (n = 16), other patients with AD (n = 20) both when cognitively normal and 1 to 10 years later when diagnosed, and case controls were enriched for neural sources by anti-human L1CAM antibody immunoabsorption. Extracted exosomal proteins were quantified by ELISAs and normalized with the CD81 exosomal marker. RESULTS: Mean exosomal levels of cathepsin D, lysosome-associated membrane protein 1 (LAMP-1), and ubiquitinylated proteins were significantly higher and of heat-shock protein 70 significantly lower for AD than controls in cross-sectional studies (p ≤ 0.0005). Levels of cathepsin D, LAMP-1, and ubiquitinylated protein also were significantly higher for patients with AD than for patients with frontotemporal dementia (p ≤ 0.006). Step-wise discriminant modeling of the protein levels correctly classified 100% of patients with AD. Exosomal levels of all proteins were similarly significantly different from those of matched controls in 20 patients 1 to 10 years before and at diagnosis of AD (p ≤ 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: Levels of autolysosomal proteins in neurally derived blood exosomes distinguish patients with AD from case controls and appear to reflect the pathology of AD up to 10 years before clinical onset. These preliminary results confirm in living patients with AD the early appearance of neuronal lysosomal dysfunction and suggest that these proteins may be useful biomarkers in large prospective studies

Therapy optimization in multiple sclerosis: a prospective observational study of therapy compliance and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Data sources for MS research are numerous but rarely provide an objective measure of drug therapy compliance coupled with patient-reported health outcomes. The objective of this paper is to describe the methods and baseline characteristics of the Therapy Optimization in MS (TOP MS) study designed to investigate the relationship between disease-modifying therapy compliance and health outcomes. METHODS: TOP MS was designed as a prospective, observational, nationwide patient-focused study using an internet portal for data entry. The protocol was reviewed and approved by Sterling IRB. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov. It captured structured survey data monthly from MS patients recruited by specialty pharmacies. Data collection included the clinical characteristics of MS such as MS relapses. Disability, quality of life and work productivity and activity impairment were assessed quarterly with well-validated scales. When events like severe fatigue or new or worsening depression were reported, feedback was provided to treating physicians. The therapy compliance measure was derived from pharmacy drug shipment records uploaded to the study database. The data presented in this paper use descriptive statistics. RESULTS: The TOP MS Study enrolled 2966 participants receiving their disease-modifying therapy (DMT) from specialty pharmacies. The mean age of the sample was 49 years, 80.4% were female, 89.9% were Caucasian and 55.7% were employed full or part time. Mean time since first symptoms was 11.5 years; mean duration since diagnosis was 9.5 years. Patient-reported EDSS was 3.5; 72.2% had a relapsing-remitting disease course. The most commonly reported symptoms at the time of enrollment were fatigue (74.7%), impaired coordination or balance (61.8%) and numbness and tingling (61.2%). Half of the sample was using glatiramer acetate and half was using beta-interferons. CONCLUSION: Demographic and clinical characteristics of the TOP MS sample at enrollment are consistent with other community-based MS samples, and the sample appears to be representative of DMT users in the US. TOP MS data can be used to explore the associations between disease-modifying therapy compliance and health outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00819000)

Low Neural Exosomal Levels of Cellular Survival Factors in Alzheimer\u27s Disease

Transcription factors that mediate neuronal defenses against diverse stresses were quantified in plasma neural-derived exosomes of Alzheimer\u27s disease or frontotemporal dementia patients and matched controls. Exosomal levels of low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 6, heat-shock factor-1, and repressor element 1-silencing transcription factor all were significantly lower in Alzheimer\u27s disease patients than controls (P \u3c 0.0001). In frontotemporal dementia, the only significant difference was higher levels of repressor element 1-silencing transcription factor than in controls. Exosomal transcription factors were diminished 2-10 years before clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer\u27s disease. Low exosomal levels of survival proteins may explain decreased neuronal resistance to Alzheimer\u27s disease neurotoxic proteins

An Integrated Approach for Characterizing Aerosol Climate Impacts and Environmental Interactions

Aerosols exert myriad influences on the earth's environment and climate, and on human health. The complexity of aerosol-related processes requires that information gathered to improve our understanding of climate change must originate from multiple sources, and that effective strategies for data integration need to be established. While a vast array of observed and modeled data are becoming available, the aerosol research community currently lacks the necessary tools and infrastructure to reap maximum scientific benefit from these data. Spatial and temporal sampling differences among a diverse set of sensors, nonuniform data qualities, aerosol mesoscale variabilities, and difficulties in separating cloud effects are some of the challenges that need to be addressed. Maximizing the long-term benefit from these data also requires maintaining consistently well-understood accuracies as measurement approaches evolve and improve. Achieving a comprehensive understanding of how aerosol physical, chemical, and radiative processes impact the earth system can be achieved only through a multidisciplinary, inter-agency, and international initiative capable of dealing with these issues. A systematic approach, capitalizing on modern measurement and modeling techniques, geospatial statistics methodologies, and high-performance information technologies, can provide the necessary machinery to support this objective. We outline a framework for integrating and interpreting observations and models, and establishing an accurate, consistent, and cohesive long-term record, following a strategy whereby information and tools of progressively greater sophistication are incorporated as problems of increasing complexity are tackled. This concept is named the Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON). To encompass the breadth of the effort required, we present a set of recommendations dealing with data interoperability; measurement and model integration; multisensor synergy; data summarization and mining; model evaluation; calibration and validation; augmentation of surface and in situ measurements; advances in passive and active remote sensing; and design of satellite missions. Without an initiative of this nature, the scientific and policy communities will continue to struggle with understanding the quantitative impact of complex aerosol processes on regional and global climate change and air quality

Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET): Following the Evolution of Boundary Layer Cloud Systems with the NSFNCAR GV

The Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) study was designed to describe and explain the evolution of the boundary layer aerosol, cloud, and thermodynamic structures along trajectories within the North Pacific trade winds. The study centered on seven round trips of the National Science FoundationNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NSFNCAR) Gulfstream V (GV) between Sacramento, California, and Kona, Hawaii, between 7 July and 9 August 2015. The CSET observing strategy was to sample aerosol, cloud, and boundary layer properties upwind from the transition zone over the North Pacific and to resample these areas two days later. Global Forecast System forecast trajectories were used to plan the outbound flight to Hawaii with updated forecast trajectories setting the return flight plan two days later. Two key elements of the CSET observing system were the newly developed High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Cloud Radar (HCR) and the high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL). Together they provided unprecedented characterizations of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation structures that were combined with in situ measurements of aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and turbulence properties. The cloud systems sampled included solid stratocumulus infused with smoke from Canadian wildfires, mesoscale cloudprecipitation complexes, and patches of shallow cumuli in very clean environments. Ultraclean layers observed frequently near the top of the boundary layer were often associated with shallow, optically thin, layered veil clouds. The extensive aerosol, cloud, drizzle, and boundary layer sampling made over open areas of the northeast Pacific along 2-day trajectories during CSET will be an invaluable resource for modeling studies of boundary layer cloud system evolution and its governing physical processes