Forecasting Design Day Demand Using Extremal Quantile Regression

Extreme events occur rarely, making them difficult to predict. Extreme cold events strain natural gas systems to their limits. Natural gas distribution companies need to be prepared to satisfy demand on any given day that is at or warmer than an extreme cold threshold. The hypothetical day with temperature at this threshold is called the Design Day. To guarantee Design Day demand is satisfied, distribution companies need to determine the demand that is unlikely to be exceeded on the Design Day. We approach determining this demand as an extremal quantile regression problem. We review current methods for extremal quantile regression. We implement a quantile forecast to estimate the demand that has a minimal chance of being exceeded on the design day. We show extremal quantile regression to be more reliable than direct quantile estimation. We discuss the difficult task of evaluating a probabilistic forecast on rare events. Probabilistic forecasting is a quickly growing research topic in the field of energy forecasting. Our paper contributes to this field in three ways. First, we forecast quantiles during extreme cold events where data is sparse. Second, we forecast extremely high quantiles that have a very low probability of being exceeded. Finally, we provide a real world scenario on which to apply these techniques

Medium Modifications of Charm and Charmonium in High-Energy Heavy-Ion Collisions

The production of charmonia in heavy-ion collisions is investigated within a kinetic theory framework simultaneously accounting for dissociation and regeneration processes in both quark-gluon plasma (QGP) and hadron-gas phases of the reaction. In-medium modifications of open-charm states (c-quarks, D-mesons) and the survival of J/psi mesons in the QGP are included as inferred from lattice QCD. Pertinent consequences on equilibrium charmonium abundances are evaluated and found to be especially relevant to explain the measured centrality dependence of the psi'/psi ratio at SPS. Predictions for recent In-In experiments, as well as comparisons to current Au-Au data from RHIC, are provided.Comment: 4 Latex pages including 4 eps figures and IOP style files. Talk given at the 17th International Conference on Ultra-Relativistic Nucleus-Nucleus Collisions, Quark Matter 2004, Oakland, CA USA, 11-17 Jan 2004. To appear in J. Phys.

Two Modes of Magnetization Switching in a Simulated Iron Nanopillar in an Obliquely Oriented Field

Finite-temperature micromagnetics simulations are employed to study the magnetization-switching dynamics driven by a field applied at an angle to the long axis of an iron nanopillar. A bi-modal distribution in the switching times is observed, and evidence for two competing modes of magnetization-switching dynamics is presented. For the conditions studied here, temperature $T = 20$ K and the reversal field 3160 Oe at an angle of 75$^\circ$ to the long axis, approximately 70% of the switches involve unstable decay (no free-energy barrier) and 30% involve metastable decay (a free-energy barrier is crossed). The latter are indistinguishable from switches which are constrained to start at a metastable free-energy minimum. Competition between unstable and metastable decay could greatly complicate applications involving magnetization switches near the coercive field.Comment: 19 pages, 7 figure

Star formation in the inner galaxy: A far-infrared and radio study of two H2 regions

Far-infrared and radio continuum maps have been made of the central 6' of the inner-galaxy HII regions G30.8-0.0 (in the W43 complex) and G25.4-0.2, along with radio and molecular line measurements at selected positions. The purpose of this study is an effort to understand star formation in the molecular ring at 5 kpc in galactic radius. Measurements at several far infrared wavelengths allow the dust temperature structures and total far infrared fluxes to be determined. Comparison of the radio and infrared maps shows a close relationship between the ionized gas and the infrared-emitting material. There is evidence that parts of G30.8 are substantially affected by extinction, even at far-infrared wavelengths. Using radio recombination line and CO line data for G25.4-0.2, the distance ambiguity for this source is resolved. The large distance previously ascribed to the entire complex is found to apply to only one of the two main components. The confusion in distance determination is found to result from an extraordinary near-superposition of two bright HII regions. Using the revised distances of 4.3 kpc for G25.4SE and 12 kpc for G25.4NW, it is found that the latter, which is apparently the fainter of the two sources, is actually the more luminous. The ratio of total luminosity to ionizing luminosity is very similar to that of HII regions in the solar circle. Assuming a coeval population of ionizing stars, a normal initial mass function is indicated

The Primordial Binary Population in OB Associations

For understanding the process of star formation it is essential to know how many stars are formed as singles or in multiple systems, as a function of environment and binary parameters. This requires a characterization of the primordial binary population, which we define as the population of binaries that is present just after star formation has ceased, but before dynamical and stellar evolution have significantly altered its characteristics. In this article we present the first results of our adaptive optics survey of 200 (mainly) A-type stars in the nearby OB association Sco OB2. We report the discovery of 47 new candidate companions of Sco OB2 members. The next step will be to combine these observations with detailed simulations of young star clusters, in order to find the primordial binary population.Comment: 2 pages, 1 figure, poster paper to appear in proceedings of IAU Coll. 191 "The environments and evolution of binary and multiple stars

Influence of Context on Item Parameters in Forced-Choice Personality Assessments

A fundamental assumption in computerized adaptive testing (CAT) is that item parameters are invariant with respect to context – items surrounding the administered item. This assumption, however, may not hold in forced-choice (FC) assessments, where explicit comparisons are made between items included in the same block. We empirically examined the influence of context on item parameters by comparing parameter estimates from two FC instruments. The first instrument was compiled of blocks of three items, whereas in the second, the context was manipulated by adding one item to each block, resulting in blocks of four. The item parameter estimates were highly similar. However, a small number of significant deviations were observed, confirming the importance of context when designing adaptive FC assessments. Two patterns of such deviations were identified, and methods to reduce their occurrences in a FC CAT setting were proposed. It was shown that with a small proportion of violations of the parameter invariance assumption, score estimation remained stable

Star formation in the inner galaxy: A far-infrared and radio study of two H2 regions

Far-infrared and radio continuum maps have been made of the central 6' of the inner-galaxy H II regions G30.8-0.0 (in the W43 complex) and G25.4-02., along with radio and molecular line measurements at selected positions. An effort is made to understand far infrared wavelingths allow the dust temperature structures and total far infrared fluxes to be determined. Comparison of the radio and infrared maps shows a close relationship between the ionized gas and the infrared-emitting material. There is evidence that parts of G30.8 are substantially affected by extinction, even at far-infrared wavelengths. For G25.4-0.2, the radio recombination line and CO line data permit resolution of the distance ambiguity for this source. The confusion in distance determination is found to result from an extraordinary near-superposition of two bright H II regions. Using revised distances of 4.3 kpc for G26.4SE and 12 kpc for G25.4NW, that the latter, which is apparently the fainter of the two sources, is actually the more luminous. Though it is not seen on the Palomar Sky Survey, G25.4SE is easily visible in the 9532A line of S III and is mapped in this line. The ratio of total luminosity to ionizing luminosity is very similar to that of H II regions in the solar circle. Assuming a coeval population of ionizing stars, a normal initial mass function is indicated

Magnetization switching in a Heisenberg model for small ferromagnetic particles

We investigate the thermally activated magnetization switching of small ferromagnetic particles driven by an external magnetic field. For low uniaxial anisotropy the spins can be expected to rotate coherently, while for sufficient large anisotropy they should behave Ising-like, i.e., the switching should then be due to nucleation. We study this crossover from coherent rotation to nucleation for the classical three-dimensional Heisenberg model with a finite anisotropy. The crossover is influenced by the size of the particle, the strength of the driving magnetic field, and the anisotropy. We discuss the relevant energy barriers which have to be overcome during the switching, and find theoretical arguments which yield the energetically favorable reversal mechanisms for given values of the quantities above. The results are confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations of Heisenberg and Ising models.Comment: 8 pages, Revtex, 11 Figures include

Meson Condensation in Dense Matter Revisited

The results for meson condensation in the literature vary markedly depending on whether one uses chiral perturbation theory or the current-algebra-plus-PCAC approach. To elucidate the origin of this discrepancy, we re-examine the role of the sigma-term in meson condensation. We find that the resolution of the existing discrepancy requires a knowledge of terms in the Lagrangian that are higher order in density than hitherto considered.Comment: 10pages, USC(NT)-94-

Quantum Evaporation from Superfluid Helium at Normal Incidence

We study the scattering of atoms, rotons and phonons at the free surface of $^4$He at normal incidence and calculate the evaporation, condensation and reflection probabilities. Assuming elastic one-to-one processes and using general properties of the scattering matrix, such as unitarity and time reversal, we argue that all nonzero probabilities can be written in terms of a single energy-dependent parameter. Quantitative predictions are obtained using linearized time dependent density functional theory.Comment: 12 pages, REVTeX, 2 postscript figures, available also at http://anubis.science.unitn.it/~dalfovo/papers/papers.htm