The Asypow S(plus) Library for Asymptotic Power Calculations

The asypow library consists of routines written in the S language that calculate power and related quantities utilizing asymptotic methods. A paper describing these methods with examples is in preparation [1]. Two methods are available. The likelihood ratio method (LR) is described in [2]. Another general method appears recently in [3]; and we designate it the SMO method after the initials of the authors.

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Ski areas, weather and climate: Time series models for New England case studies

Wintertime warming trends experienced in recent decades, and predicted to increase in the future, present serious challenges for ski areas and whole regions that depend on winter tourism. Most research on this topic examines past or future climate-change impacts at yearly to decadal resolution, to obtain a perspective on climate-change impacts. We focus instead on local-scale impacts of climate variability, using detailed daily data from two individual ski areas. Our analysis fits ARMAX (autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables) time series models that predict day-to-day variations in skier attendance from a combination of mountain and urban weather, snow cover and cyclical factors. They explain half to two-thirds of the variation in these highly erratic series, with no residual autocorrelation. Substantively, model results confirm the backyard hypothesis that urban snow conditions significantly affect skier activity; quantify these effects alongside those of mountain snow and weather; show that previous-day conditions provide a practical time window; find no monthly effects net of weather; and underline the importance of a handful of high-attendance days in making or breaking the season. Viewed in the larger context of climate change, our findings suggest caution regarding the efficacy of artificial snowmaking as an adaptive strategy, and of smoothed yearly summaries to characterize the timing-sensitive impacts of weather (and hence, high-variance climate change) on skier activity. These results elaborate conclusions from our previous annual-level analysis. More broadly, they illustrate the potential for using ARMAX models to conduct integrated, dynamic analysis across environmental and social domains

The Old Chestnut Explored: Thoughts About the Survival of Casner\u27s \u3cem\u3eCases and Text on Property\u3c/em\u3e Long Past Its Prime

The pedagogy of the Casner text-now often imitated-assumes a fractional approach to private property. The Hohfeldian bundle of rights rational for allocation and justification of property interests did not begin with Casner or Leach, but the fact that the first edition of the book bearing the combined authors\u27 names appeared in 1947 and has been in continuous use since that time is a testament to the insight of its writers and to its timelessness. That the structure and themes of the text have been followed in a host of casebooks is, no doubt, the sincerest form of flatter

Revisiting Local Campaign Effects: An Experiment Involving Literature Mail Drops in the 2007 Ontario Election

An invariant feature of constituency election campaigns is the literature mail drop, usually a one-page leaflet or card left at the door profiling the candidate and appealing for electoral support. In this article, we report on a field experiment designed to assess the effects of such mail drops. The experiment was conducted during the 2007 Ontario provincial election campaign in the constituency of Cambridge and entailed distributing literature for the Green party candidate in that constituency. After randomly assigning constituency polls to treatment and control groups, and delivering the Green candidate’s partisan literature only to the selected treatment group polls, we compared the candidate’s support levels in the treated polls with those in the control group. Our research detected a modest effect associated with the literature drop. The effect was largely limited to constituency neighbourhoods fitting at least part of the Green party’s traditional demographic, that is, those with higher than average socio-economic status