Toronto HCC Risk Index::A validated scoring system to predict 10-year risk of HCC in patients with cirrhosis

Background: Current guidelines recommend biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in all patients with cirrhosis, regardless of etiology. However, HCC incidence is not well established for many causes of cirrhosis. Aim: To assess the disease-specific incidence of HCC in a large cohort of patients with cirrhosis and to develop a scoring system to predict HCC risk. Methods: A derivation cohort of patients with cirrhosis diagnosed by biopsy or non-invasive measures was identified through retrospective chart review. The disease-specific incidence of HCC was calculated according to etiology of cirrhosis. Factors associated with HCC were identified through multivariable Cox regression and used to develop a scoring system to predict HCC risk. The scoring system evaluated in an external cohort for validation. Results: Of 2,079 patients with cirrhosis and ≥6 months follow-up, 226 (10.8%) developed HCC. The 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC varied by etiologic category from 22% in patients with viral hepatitis, to 16% in those with steatohepatitis and 5% in those with autoimmune liver disease (p<0.001). By multivariable Cox regression, age, sex, etiology and platelets were associated with HCC. Points were assigned in proportion to each hazard ratio to create the Toronto HCC Risk Index (THRI). The 10-year cumulative HCC incidence was 3%, 10% and 32% in the low (<120 points) medium (120-240) and high (>240) risk groups respectively, values that remained consistent after internal validation. External validation was performed on a cohort of patients with PBC, HBV and HCV cirrhosis (n= 1,144) with similar predictive ability (Harrell’s c-statistic 0.77) in the validation and derivation cohorts. Conclusion: HCC incidence varies markedly by etiology of cirrhosis. The THRI, using readily available clinical and laboratory parameters, has good predictive ability for HCC in patients with cirrhosis, and has been validated in an external cohort. This risk score may help to guide recommendations regarding HCC surveillance among patients with cirrhosis

TP53 outperforms other androgen receptor biomarkers to predict abiraterone or enzalutamide outcome in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

Purpose: To infer the prognostic value of simultaneous androgen receptor (AR) and TP53 profiling in liquid biopsies from patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) starting a new line of AR signaling inhibitors (ARSi). Experimental Design: Between March 2014 and April 2017, we recruited patients with mCRPC (n = 168) prior to ARSi in a cohort study encompassing 10 European centers. Blood samples were collected for comprehensive profiling of Cell Search-enriched circulating tumor cells (CTC) and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA). Targeted CTC RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) allowed the detection of eight AR splice variants (ARV). Low-pass whole-genome and targeted gene-body sequencing of AR and TP53 was applied to identify amplifications, loss of heterozygosity, mutations, and structural rearrangements in ctDNA. Clinical or radiologic progression-free survival (PFS) was estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis, and independent associations were determined using multivariable Cox regression models. Results: Overall, no single AR perturbation remained associated with adverse prognosis after multivariable analysis. Instead, tumor burden estimates (CTC counts, ctDNA fraction, and visceral metastases) were significantly associated with PFS. TP53 inactivation harbored independent prognostic value [HR 1.88; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18-3.00; P = 0.008], and outperformed ARV expression and detection of genomic AR alterations. Using Cox coefficient analysis of clinical parameters and TP53 status, we identified three prognostic groups with differing PFS estimates (median, 14.7 vs. 7.51 vs. 2.62 months; P < 0.0001), which was validated in an independent mCRPC cohort (n = 202) starting first-line ARSi (median, 14.3 vs. 6.39 vs. 2.23 months; P < 0.0001). Conclusions: In an all-comer cohort, tumor burden estimates and TP53 outperform any AR perturbation to infer prognosis. See related commentary by Rebello et al., p. 169

Susceptibility to chronic mucus hypersecretion, a genome wide association study

Background: Chronic mucus hypersecretion (CMH) is associated with an increased frequency of respiratory infections, excess lung function decline, and increased hospitalisation and mortality rates in the general population. It is associated with smoking, but it is unknown why only a minority of smokers develops CMH. A plausible explanation for this phenomenon is a predisposing genetic constitution. Therefore, we performed a genome wide association (GWA) study of CMH in Caucasian populations. Methods: GWA analysis was performed in the NELSON-study using the Illumina 610 array, followed by replication and meta-analysis in 11 additional cohorts. In total 2,704 subjects with, and 7,624 subjects without CMH were included, all current or former heavy smokers (≥20 pack-years). Additional studies were performed to test the functional relevance of the most significant single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP). Results: A strong association with CMH, consistent across all cohorts, was observed with rs6577641 (p = 4.25x10-6, OR = 1.17), located in intron 9 of the special AT-rich sequence-binding protein 1 locus (SATB1) on chromosome 3. The risk allele (G) was associated with higher mRNA expression of SATB1 (4.3x10 -9) in lung tissue. Presence of CMH was associated with increased SATB1 mRNA expression in bronchial biopsies from COPD patients. SATB1 expression was induced during differentiation of primary human bronchial epithelial cells in culture. Conclusions: Our findings, that SNP rs6577641 is associated with CMH in multiple cohorts and is a cis-eQTL for SATB1, together with our additional observation that SATB1 expression increases during epithelial differentiation provide suggestive evidence that SATB1 is a gene that affects CMH

Susceptibility to chronic mucus hypersecretion, a genome wide association study

Background: Chronic mucus hypersecretion (CMH) is associated with an increased frequency of respiratory infections, excess lung function decline, and increased hospitalisation and mortality rates in the general population. It is associated with smoking, but it is unknown why only a minority of smokers develops CMH. A plausible explanation for this phenomenon is a predisposing genetic constitution. Therefore, we performed a genome wide association (GWA) study of CMH in Caucasian populations.Methods: GWA analysis was performed in the NELSON-study using the Illumina 610 array, followed by replication and metaanalysis in 11 additional cohorts. In total 2,704 subjects with, and 7,624 subjects without CMH were included, all current or former heavy smokers (&gt;= 20 pack-years). Additional studies were performed to test the functional relevance of the most significant single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP).Results: A strong association with CMH, consistent across all cohorts, was observed with rs6577641 (p = 4.25610(-6), OR = 1.17), located in intron 9 of the special AT-rich sequence-binding protein 1 locus (SATB1) on chromosome 3. The risk allele (G) was associated with higher mRNA expression of SATB1 (4.3610 29) in lung tissue. Presence of CMH was associated with increased SATB1 mRNA expression in bronchial biopsies from COPD patients. SATB1 expression was induced during differentiation of primary human bronchial epithelial cells in culture.Conclusions: Our findings, that SNP rs6577641 is associated with CMH in multiple cohorts and is a cis-eQTL for SATB1, together with our additional observation that SATB1 expression increases during epithelial differentiation provide suggestive evidence that SATB1 is a gene that affects CMH.</p