Rainfall and sentinel chicken seroconversions predict human cases of Murray Valley encephalitis in the north of Western Australia

Background Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a flavivirus that occurs in Australia and New Guinea. While clinical cases are uncommon, MVEV can cause severe encephalitis with high mortality. Sentinel chicken surveillance is used at many sites around Australia to provide an early warning system for risk of human infection in areas that have low population density and geographical remoteness. MVEV in Western Australia occurs in areas of low population density and geographical remoteness, resulting in logistical challenges with surveillance systems and few human cases. While epidemiological data has suggested an association between rainfall and MVEV activity in outbreak years, it has not been quantified, and the association between rainfall and sporadic cases is less clear. In this study we analysed 22 years of sentinel chicken and human case data from Western Australia in order to evaluate the effectiveness of sentinel chicken surveillance for MVEV and assess the association between rainfall and MVEV activity. Methods Sentinel chicken seroconversion, human case and rainfall data from the Kimberley and Pilbara regions of Western Australia from 1990 to 2011 were analysed using negative binomial regression. Sentinel chicken seroconversion and human cases were used as dependent variables in the model. The model was then tested against sentinel chicken and rainfall data from 2012 and 2013.Results Sentinel chicken seroconversion preceded all human cases except two in March 1993. Rainfall in the prior three months was significantly associated with both sentinel chicken seroconversion and human cases across the regions of interest. Sentinel chicken seroconversion was also predictive of human cases in the models. The model predicted sentinel chicken seroconversion in the Kimberley but not in the Pilbara, where seroconversions early in 2012 were not predicted. The latter may be due to localised MVEV activity in isolated foci at dams, which do not reflect broader virus activity in the region. Conclusions We showed that rainfall and sentinel chickens provide a useful early warning of MVEV risk to humans across endemic and epidemic areas, and that a combination of the two indicators improves the ability to assess MVEV risk and inform risk management measures

Molecular Phylogeny of Edge Hill Virus Supports its Position in the Yellow Fever Virus Group and Identifies a New Genetic Variant

Edge Hill virus (EHV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus isolated throughout Australia during mosquito surveillance programs. While not posing an immediate threat to the human population, EHV is a taxonomically interesting flavivirus since it remains the only member of the yellow fever virus (YFV) sub-group to be detected within Australia. Here we present both an antigenic and genetic investigation of collected isolates, and confirm taxonomic classification of the virus within the YFV-group. Isolates were not clustered based on geographical origin or time of isolation, suggesting that minimal genetic evolution of EHV has occurred over geographic distance or time within the EHV cluster. However, two isolates showed significant differences in antigenic reactivity patterns, and had a much larger divergence from the EHV prototype (19% nucleotide and 6% amino acid divergence), indicating a distinct subtype or variant within the EHV subgroup

Murray Valley encephalitis virus surveillance and control initiatives in Australia.

Mechanisms for monitoring Murray Valley encephalitis (MVE) virus activity include surveillance of human cases, surveillance for activity in sentinel animals, monitoring of mosquito vectors and monitoring of weather conditions. The monitoring of human cases is only one possible trigger for public health action and the additional surveillance systems are used in concert to signal the risk of human disease, often before the appearance of human cases. Mosquito vector surveillance includes mosquito trapping for speciation and enumeration of mosquitoes to monitor population sizes and relative composition. Virus isolation from mosquitoes can also be undertaken. Monitoring of weather conditions and vector surveillance determines whether there is a potential for MVE activity to occur. Virus isolation from trapped mosquitoes is necessary to define whether MVE is actually present, but is difficult to deliver in a timely fashion in some jurisdictions. Monitoring of sentinel animals indicates whether MVE transmission to vertebrates is actually occurring. Meteorological surveillance can assist in the prediction of potential MVE virus activity by signalling conditions that have been associated with outbreaks of Murray Valley encephalitis in humans in the past. Predictive models of MVE virus activity for south-eastern Australia have been developed, but due to the infrequency of outbreaks, are yet to be demonstrated as useful for the forecasting of major outbreaks. Surveillance mechanisms vary across the jurisdictions. Surveillance of human disease occurs in all States and Territories by reporting of cases to health authorities. Sentinel flocks of chickens are maintained in 4 jurisdictions (Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Victoria and New South Wales) with collaborations between Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Mosquito monitoring complements the surveillance of sentinel animals in these jurisdictions. In addition, other mosquito monitoring programs exist in other States (including South Australia and Queensland). Public health control measures may include advice to the general public and mosquito management programs to reduce the numbers of both mosquito larvae and adult vectors. Strategic plans for public health action in the event of MVE virus activity are currently developed or being developed in New South Wales, the Northern Territory, South Australia, Western Australia and Victoria. A southern tri-State agreement exists between health departments of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia and the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care. All partners have agreed to co-operate and provide assistance in predicting and combatting outbreaks of mosquito-borne disease in south-eastern Australia. The newly formed National Arbovirus Advisory Committee is a working party providing advice to the Communicable Diseases Network Australia on arbovirus surveillance and control. Recommendations for further enhancement of national surveillance for Murray Valley encephalitis are described

The relationships between West Nile and Kunjin viruses.

Until recently, West Nile (WN) and Kunjin (KUN) viruses were classified as distinct types in the Flavivirus genus. However, genetic and antigenic studies on isolates of these two viruses indicate that the relationship between them is more complex. To better define this relationship, we performed sequence analyses on 32 isolates of KUN virus and 28 isolates of WN virus from different geographic areas, including a WN isolate from the recent outbreak in New York. Sequence comparisons showed that the KUN virus isolates from Australia were tightly grouped but that the WN virus isolates exhibited substantial divergence and could be differentiated into four distinct groups. KUN virus isolates from Australia were antigenically homologous and distinct from the WN isolates and a Malaysian KUN virus. Our results suggest that KUN and WN viruses comprise a group of closely related viruses that can be differentiated into subgroups on the basis of genetic and antigenic analyses

Sentinel Chicken Surveillance Program in Australia, July 2003 to June 2004

Detection of flavivirus seroconversions in sentinel chicken flocks located in four Australian states are used to provide an early warning of increased levels of Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) and Kunjin virus (KUNV) activity in the region. During the 2003?2004 season low levels of flavivirus activity were detected in northern Australia with both MVEV and KUNV virus activity detected in the Kimberley and Pilbara regions of Western Australia and in the Northern Territory. A single case of Murray Valley encephalitis was reported from Central Australia. MVEV activity was also detected at Minindee in western New South Wales for the first time since 2000?2001. No activity was detected in Victoria

Sentinel Chicken Surveillance Program in Australia, July 2003 to June 2004

Detection of flavivirus seroconversions in sentinel chicken flocks located in four Australian states are used to provide an early warning of increased levels of Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) and Kunjin virus (KUNV) activity in the region. During the 2003?2004 season low levels of flavivirus activity were detected in northern Australia with both MVEV and KUNV virus activity detected in the Kimberley and Pilbara regions of Western Australia and in the Northern Territory. A single case of Murray Valley encephalitis was reported from Central Australia. MVEV activity was also detected at Minindee in western New South Wales for the first time since 2000?2001. No activity was detected in Victoria

Sentinel Chicken Surveillance Program in Australia, July 2003 to June 2004

Detection of flavivirus seroconversions in sentinel chicken flocks located in four Australian states are used to provide an early warning of increased levels of Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) and Kunjin virus (KUNV) activity in the region. During the 2003?2004 season low levels of flavivirus activity were detected in northern Australia with both MVEV and KUNV virus activity detected in the Kimberley and Pilbara regions of Western Australia and in the Northern Territory. A single case of Murray Valley encephalitis was reported from Central Australia. MVEV activity was also detected at Minindee in western New South Wales for the first time since 2000?2001. No activity was detected in Victoria.Date:200