The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory

Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short- and long-term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized. Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis. Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales. We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight

Microplastics in the diet of nestling double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auratus), an obligate piscivore in a freshwater ecosystem

Anthropogenic debris, namely plastic, is a concern across aquatic ecosystems worldwide, with freshwater systems being understudied relative to marine. In this study, we quantified and characterized debris in the diet of double-crested cormorant chicks (Phalacrocorax auratus) from three sites in two of the Laurentian Great Lakes to 1) determine whether or not the diet of double-crested cormorants in the Laurentian Great Lakes includes anthropogenic debris, 2) characterize the size, shape and type of debris incorporated, and 3) examine relationships between the amount of debris ingested and their proximity to industrial/urban centres. Overall, >86% of cormorants in our study had anthropogenic debris (mostly fibers) in their digestive tracts with no correlation between site and the amount of debris ingested. The ingested debris includes microplastics, natural fibres from textiles, and other anthropogenic materials (e.g., glass). To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first studies to examine anthropogenic debris in a diving bird in the Laurentian Great Lakes, and one of few studies investigating this in freshwater birds.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

Differential infestation of juvenile Pacific salmon by parasitic sea lice in British Columbia, Canada

Fraser River Pacific salmon have declined in recent decades, possibly from parasitism by sea lice (Caligus clemensi and Lepeophtheirus salmonis). We describe the abundance of both louse species infesting co-migrating juvenile pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), chum (Oncorhynchus keta), and sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) salmon over 5 years in the Discovery Islands and Johnstone Strait, British Columbia. The generalist louse, C. clemensi, was 5, 7, and 39 times more abundant than the salmonid specialist, L. salmonis, on pink, chum, and sockeye salmon, respectively. Caligus clemensi abundance was higher on pink salmon (0.45, 95% CI: 0.38–0.55) and sockeye (0.39, 95% CI: 0.33–0.47) than on chum salmon. Lepeophtheirus salmonis abundance was highest on pink salmon (0.09, 95% CI = 0.06–0.15). Caligus clemensi had higher abundances in Johnstone Strait than in the Discovery Islands. These results suggest differences in host specialization and transmission dynamics between louse species. Because both lice infest farmed salmon, but only C. clemensi infests Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), conservation science and management regarding lice and Fraser River salmon should further consider C. clemensi and transmission from farmed salmon and wild herring.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

Not just for programmers: How GitHub can accelerate collaborative and reproducible research in ecology and evolution

Researchers in ecology and evolutionary biology are increasingly dependent on computational code to conduct research. Hence, the use of efficient methods to share, reproduce, and collaborate on code as well as document research is fundamental. GitHub is an online, cloud-based service that can help researchers track, organize, discuss, share, and collaborate on software and other materials related to research production, including data, code for analyses, and protocols. Despite these benefits, the use of GitHub in ecology and evolution is not widespread. To help researchers in ecology and evolution adopt useful features from GitHub to improve their research workflows, we review 12 practical ways to use the platform. We outline features ranging from low to high technical difficulty, including storing code, managing projects, coding collaboratively, conducting peer review, writing a manuscript, and using automated and continuous integration to streamline analyses. Given that members of a research team may have different technical skills and responsibilities, we describe how the optimal use of GitHub features may vary among members of a research collaboration. As more ecologists and evolutionary biologists establish their workflows using GitHub, the field can continue to push the boundaries of collaborative, transparent, and open research

Not just for programmers: How GitHub can accelerate collaborative and reproducible research in ecology and evolution

Abstract Researchers in ecology and evolutionary biology are increasingly dependent on computational code to conduct research. Hence, the use of efficient methods to share, reproduce, and collaborate on code as well as document research is fundamental. GitHub is an online, cloud‐based service that can help researchers track, organize, discuss, share, and collaborate on software and other materials related to research production, including data, code for analyses, and protocols. Despite these benefits, the use of GitHub in ecology and evolution is not widespread. To help researchers in ecology and evolution adopt useful features from GitHub to improve their research workflows, we review 12 practical ways to use the platform. We outline features ranging from low to high technical difficulty, including storing code, managing projects, coding collaboratively, conducting peer review, writing a manuscript, and using automated and continuous integration to streamline analyses. Given that members of a research team may have different technical skills and responsibilities, we describe how the optimal use of GitHub features may vary among members of a research collaboration. As more ecologists and evolutionary biologists establish their workflows using GitHub, the field can continue to push the boundaries of collaborative, transparent, and open research