Forecasting and planning for special events in the pulp and paper supply chains

Due to global warming, flood is an increasing threat to companies operating in the pulp and paper industry. The impact of this threat needs to be managed. We deploy a qualitative investigation into how paper manufacturers can forecast and mitigate the impact of special events, most notably floods, across their supply chains. A grounded theory approach using semi-structured interviews held with supply chain consultants in three stages allowed for topic categories emerging during previous interviews to be explored. Analysis of these interviews uncovered tactics unique to the pulp and paper industry. The findings are three-fold. First, paper manufacturers should focus on basic forecasting methods which they are capable of, such as subscribing to flood warnings, rather than poorly executing advance machine learning forecasts. Second, planning is of equal importance to forecasting: integrated business planning should guide the process. Third, business execution should involve a proactive approach to decision-making which trusts data and has people that nurture and drive the process

Forecasting and planning for special events in the pulp and paper supply chains

Due to global warming, flood is an increasing threat to companies operating in the pulp and paper industry. The impact of this threat needs to be managed. We deploy a qualitative investigation into how paper manufacturers can forecast and mitigate the impact of special events, most notably floods, across their supply chains. A grounded theory approach using semi-structured interviews held with supply chain consultants in three stages allowed for topic categories emerging during previous interviews to be explored. Analysis of these interviews uncovered tactics unique to the pulp and paper industry. The findings are three-fold. First, paper manufacturers should focus on basic forecasting methods which they are capable of, such as subscribing to flood warnings, rather than poorly executing advance machine learning forecasts. Second, planning is of equal importance to forecasting: integrated business planning should guide the process. Third, business execution should involve a proactive approach to decision-making which trusts data and has people that nurture and drive the process

A robust lentiviral pseudotype neutralisation assay for in-field serosurveillance of rabies and lyssaviruses in Africa

The inflexibility of existing serological techniques for detection of rabies in surveillance constrains the benefit to be gained from many current control strategies. We analysed 304 serum samples from Tanzanian dogs for the detection of rabies antibodies in a pseudotype assay using lentiviral vectors bearing the CVS-11 envelope glycoprotein. Compared with the widely used gold standard fluorescent antibody virus neutralisation assay, a specificity of 100% and sensitivity of 94.4% with a strong correlation of antibody titres (r = 0.915) were observed with the pseudotype assay. To increase the assay's surveillance specificity in Africa we incorporated the envelope glycoprotein of local viruses, Lagos bat virus, Duvenhage virus or Mokola virus and also cloned the lacZ gene to provide a reporter element. Neutralisation assays using pseudotypes bearing these glycoproteins reveal that they provide a greater sensitivity compared to similar live virus assays and will therefore allow a more accurate determination of the distribution of these highly pathogenic infections and the threat they pose to human health. Importantly, the CVS-11 pseudotypes were highly stable during freeze–thaw cycles and storage at room temperature. These results suggest the proposed pseudotype assay is a suitable option for undertaking lyssavirus serosurveillance in areas most affected by these infections