Risk Factors for Avian Influenza H9 Infection of Chickens in Live Bird Retail Stalls of Lahore District, Pakistan 2009-2010

Abstract This study was conducted to identify risk factors associated with AIV infections in live bird retail stalls (LBRS) in Lahore District, Pakistan. A cross-sectional survey of LBRS was conducted from December 2009-February 2010 using two-stage cluster sampling based on probability proportional to size. A total of 280 oropharyngeal swab sample pools were collected from 1400 birds in 8 clusters and tested by qRT-PCR for the matrix (M) gene of type A influenza virus and HA gene subtypes H9, H5 and H7. Thirty-four (34) samples were positive for the M gene, of which 28 were also positive for H9. No sample was found positive for H5 or H7. Data for 36 potential risk factors, collected by questionnaire, were analyzed by survey-weighted logistic regression and prevalence odds ratios (OR) for associated risk factors were calculated. A final multivariable model identified three risk factors for H9 infection in LRBS, namely obtaining birds from mixed sources (OR 2.28, CI95%: 1.4–3.7), keeping birds outside cages (OR 3.10, CI95%: 1.4–7.0) and keeping chicken breeds other than broilers (OR 6.27, CI95%: 1.7–23.2). Sourcing birds from dealers/wholesalers, keeping birds inside cages and avoiding mixing different breeds in cages could reduce the risk of H9 infections in LRBS

Scenario planning: the future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease

In this paper, we present a description of foresighting activities undertaken by EPIC, Scotland’s Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, to investigate the future uncertainty of animal health security in the Scottish sheep and cattle sectors. Using scenario planning methodologies, we explored four plausible but provocative long-term futures which identify dynamics underpinning the resilience of these agricultural sectors to animal disease. These scenarios highlight a number of important drivers that influence disease resilience: industry demographics, the role of government support and regulation and the capacity for technological innovation to support the industry to meet local and global market demand. Participants in the scenario planning exercises proposed creative, robust strategies that policy makers could consider implementing now to enhance disease control and industry resilience in multiple, uncertain futures. Using these participant-led strategies as a starting point, we offer ten key questions for policy makers and stakeholders to provoke further discussion about improving resiliency and disease preparedness. We conclude with a brief discussion of the value of scenario planning, not only for the development of futures which will inform disease contingency plans and improve industry resilience, but as a mechanism for dialogue and information sharing between stakeholders and government

One million dog vaccinations recorded on mHealth innovation used to direct teams in numerous rabies control campaigns

<div><p>Background</p><p>Canine transmitted rabies kills an estimated 59,000 people annually, despite proven methods for elimination through mass dog vaccination. Challenges in directing and monitoring numerous remote vaccination teams across large geographic areas remain a significant barrier to the up-scaling of focal vaccination programmes to sub-national and national level. Smartphone technology (mHealth) is increasingly being used to enhance the coordination and efficiency of public health initiatives in developing countries, however examples of successful scaling beyond pilot implementation are rare. This study describes a smartphone app and website platform, “Mission Rabies App”, used to co-ordinate rabies control activities at project sites in four continents to vaccinate over one million dogs.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Mission Rabies App made it possible to not only gather relevant campaign data from the field, but also to direct vaccination teams systematically in near real-time. The display of user-allocated boundaries on Google maps within data collection forms enabled a project manager to define each team’s region of work, assess their output and assign subsequent areas to progressively vaccinate across a geographic area. This ability to monitor work and react to a rapidly changing situation has the potential to improve efficiency and coverage achieved, compared to regular project management structures, as well as enhancing capacity for data review and analysis from remote areas. The ability to plot the location of every vaccine administered facilitated engagement with stakeholders through transparent reporting, and has the potential to motivate politicians to support such activities.</p><p>Results</p><p>Since the system launched in September 2014, over 1.5 million data entries have been made to record dog vaccinations, rabies education classes and field surveys in 16 countries. Use of the system has increased year-on-year with adoption for mass dog vaccination campaigns at the India state level in Goa and national level in Haiti.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>Innovative approaches to rapidly scale mass dog vaccination programmes in a sustained and systematic fashion are urgently needed to achieve the WHO, OIE and FAO goal to eliminate canine-transmitted human deaths by 2030. The Mission Rabies App is an mHealth innovation which greatly reduces the logistical and managerial barriers to implementing large scale rabies control activities. Free access to the platform aims to support pilot campaigns to better structure and report on proof-of-concept initiatives, clearly presenting outcomes and opportunities for expansion. The functionalities of the Mission Rabies App may also be beneficial to other infectious disease interventions.</p></div

The vaccination of 35,000 dogs in 20 working days using combined static point and door-to-door methods in Blantyre, Malawi

An estimated 60,000 people die of rabies annually. The vast majority of cases of human rabies develop following a bite from an infected dog. Rabies can be controlled in both human and canine populations through widespread vaccination of dogs. Rabies is particularly problematic in Malawi, costing the country an estimated 13 million USD and 484 human deaths annually, with an increasing paediatric incidence in Blantyre City. Consequently, the aim of this study was to vaccinate a minimum of 75% of all the dogs within Blantyre city during a one month period. Blantyre's 25 administrative wards were divided into 204 working zones. For initial planning, a mean human:dog ratio from the literature enabled estimation of dog population size and dog surveys were then performed in 29 working zones in order to assess dog distribution by land type. Vaccination was conducted at static point stations at weekends, at a total of 44 sites, with each operating for an average of 1.3 days. On Monday to Wednesday, door-to-door vaccination sessions were undertaken in the areas surrounding the preceding static point stations. 23,442 dogs were vaccinated at static point stations and 11,774 dogs were vaccinated during door-to-door vaccinations. At the end of the 20 day vaccination programme, an assessment of vaccination coverage through door-to-door surveys found that of 10,919 dogs observed, 8,661 were vaccinated resulting in a vaccination coverage of 79.3% (95%CI 78.6-80.1%). The estimated human:dog ratio for Blantyre city was 18.1:1. Mobile technology facilitated the collection of data as well as efficient direction and coordination of vaccination teams in near real time. This study demonstrates the feasibility of vaccinating large numbers of dogs at a high vaccination coverage, over a short time period in a large African city

Barriers of attendance to dog rabies static point vaccination clinics in Blantyre, Malawi

<div><p>Rabies is a devastating yet preventable disease that causes around 59,000 human deaths annually. Almost all human rabies cases are caused by bites from rabies-infected dogs. A large proportion of these cases occur in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Annual vaccination of at least 70% of the dog population is recommended by the World Health Organisation in order to eliminate rabies. However, achieving such high vaccination coverage has proven challenging, especially in low resource settings. Despite being logistically and economically more feasible than door-to-door approaches, static point (SP) vaccination campaigns often suffer from low attendance and therefore result in low vaccination coverage. Here, we investigated the barriers to attendance at SP offering free rabies vaccinations for dogs in Blantyre, Malawi. We analysed data for 22,924 dogs from a city-wide vaccination campaign in combination with GIS and household questionnaire data using multivariable logistic regression and distance estimation techniques. We found that distance plays a crucial role in SP attendance (i.e. for every km closer the odds of attending a SP point are 3.3 times higher) and that very few people are willing to travel more than 1.5 km to bring their dog for vaccination. Additionally, we found that dogs from areas with higher proportions of people living in poverty are more likely to be presented for vaccination (ORs 1.58-2.22). Furthermore, puppies (OR 0.26), pregnant or lactating female dogs (OR 0.60) are less likely to be presented for vaccination. Owners also reported that they did not attend an SP because they were not aware of the campaign (27%) or they could not handle their dog (19%). Our findings will inform the design of future rabies vaccination programmes in SSA which may lead to improved vaccination coverage achieved by SP alone.</p></div

Proportion of attendance to SP by distance to nearest SP.

<p>Figure shows that the proportion of attendance to SP decreases as distance to nearest SP increases.</p

Univariable analysis results of the association of each factor with attendance to SP.

<p>Univariable analysis results of the association of each factor with attendance to SP.</p

SP locations and recorded straight line paths.

<p>Location of SPs used in the study. Examples of the straight line paths for the 6,271 dog owners who presented their SP unique ID number during the door-to-door campaign. The map was plotted using R packages <i>ggplot2</i> and <i>ggmap</i> [<a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006159#pntd.0006159.ref032" target="_blank">32</a>] using tiles sourced from Stamen Design (using data by OpenStreetMap).</p

Distance by SP location.

<p>This figure shows distance traveled to each of the 47 SP clinics calculated using google maps and straight line distance. Box plots show lower and upper quartiles and the median distance traveled.</p

Multivariable logistic regression model predicting attendance to SP.

<p>Multivariable logistic regression model predicting attendance to SP using 13,544 observations included in the training dataset.</p