Smoking, Income and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from Smoking Bans

This paper provides estimates of the effects of smoking policies on self-reported well-being using US county-level data. Because the bans were implemented at different times, it is possible to exploit these variations to identify the effect on a broad range of outcomes like self-reported well-being. The impact of smoking bans is estimated on those likely to be smokers relatively to others in order to take into account the effect on former, potential and current smokers. Our estimates suggest that the implementation of smoking bans make those who are predicted to be smokers more satisfied with their life. Within-family externalities and time-inconsistent family-utility maximization explain these findings. Additionally, there is evidence that the largest effect of smoking bans is for parents and married couples where the spouse is predicted to smoke.Smoking policies ; Subjective well-being ; Social interactions ; Behavior

Has Uber Made It Easier to Get a Ride in the Rain?

In New York City (NYC), it has been a common complaint that it is difficult to find a taxi in the rain. Using all Uber rides in NYC from April to September 2014 and January to June 2015, we show that the number of Uber rides is significantly correlated with whether it rained. The number of Uber rides per hour is about 25 percent higher when it is raining, suggesting that surge pricing encourages an increase in supply. During the same time period, the number of taxi rides per hour increases by only 4 percent in rainy hours. We then show that the number of taxi rides per hour decreased by approximately 8 percent after Uber entered the New York market in May 2011, confirming that Uber is depressing taxi demand. Last, we test whether the total (Uber plus taxi) number of rides in rainy hours increased since May 2011. Our estimates suggest that the total number of rides increased by approximately 9 percent since Uber entered the market and that it is relatively easier to get a ride in rainy than in non-rainy hours in post-Uber years

État, économie et population : de Malthus à Keynes et Myrdal

L'accroissement de plus en plus rapide de la population mondiale pousse un grand nombre de chercheurs à s'interroger sur les limites de la croissance. Dans le même ordre d'idée, cette recherche vise à comprendre la dynamique entourant l'économie et la démographie. Une analyse exhaustive des différents écrits d'économistes permet d'approfondir la connaissance sur ce sujet précis de même qu'à répondre à une question en particulier: Quelles politiques doivent être mises en place pour améliorer le sort des affamés? Thomas Robert Malthus est l'un des premiers à avoir remis en question l'efficacité d'un accroissement de la population. Sa critique de certains des thèmes clés du courant mercantilisme marque ainsi le commencement d'une analyse privilégiant le bonheur individuel sur celui de la nation. Après s'être penché sur les différentes propositions développées par Malthus dans ses Essais sur le principe de population, il s'avère possible d'examiner l'influence qu'il a eue sur deux autres économistes, soit John Maynard Keynes et Karl Gunnar Myrdal. La présente étude analyse ainsi les idées de Keynes et de Myrdal quant à la relation économie-démographie. Bien que Keynes et Myrdal aient modifié au fil du temps leur vision quant à un accroissement démographique, il n'en demeure pas moins qu'ils conservèrent un argumentaire basé sur les théories malthusiennes. Après avoir examiné les différentes politiques démographiques proposées par ces économistes, une dernière section permet de prendre conscience des développements récents dans l'économie de la population. De plus, les politiques proposées par Malthus, Myrdal et Keynes sont analysées dans une perspective contemporaine où l'Inde et la Chine occupent une place prépondérante. \ud ______________________________________________________________________________ \ud MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : John Maynard Keynes, Thomas Robert Malthus, néo-malthusianisme, Karl Gunnar Myrdal, population, redistribution des revenu

Terrorism and Employment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks

This paper examines the economic consequences of terror attacks and the channels through which terrorism affects local economies. I rely on an exhaustive list of terror attacks over the period 1970-2013 in the U.S. and exploit the inherent randomness in the success or failure of terror attacks to identify the economic impacts of terrorism. The findings suggest that successful attacks, in comparison to failed attacks, reduce the number of jobs in targeted counties by approximately 5% in the year the attack takes place. The effects fade away after 2 years and I find no evidence that neighboring counties suffer from the successful attack. Analyzing the channels, I find suggestive evidence that the decrease in the physical capital stock of a county partially explains the temporary reduction in jobs. I also focus on economic attitudes and political preferences since these preferences have been shown to be related to economic outcomes. The results suggest that successful attacks decrease temporarily vote share for Democrat candidates in gubernatorial elections and bring a leftward shift in attitudes in targeted counties

War, migration and the origins of the Thai sex industry

This paper analyzes the determinants behind the spatial distribution of the sex industry in Thailand. We relate the development of the sex industry to an early temporary demand shock, i.e., U.S. military presence during the Vietnam War. Comparing the surroundings of Thai military bases used by the U.S. army to districts close to unused Thai bases, we find that there are currently 5 times more commercial sex workers in districts near former U.S. bases. The development of the sex industry is also explained by a high price elasticity of supply due to female migration from regions affected by an agricultural crisis. Finally, we study a consequence induced by the large numbers of sex workers in few red-light districts: the HIV outbreak in the early 1990

Star wars: The empirics strike back

Journals favor rejections of the null hypothesis. This selection upon results may distort the behavior of researchers. Using 50,000 tests published between 2005 and 2011 in the AER, JPE and QJE, we identify a residual in the distribution of tests that cannot be explained by selection. The distribution of p-values exhibits a camel shape with abundant p-values above :25, a valley between :25 and :10 and a bump slightly under :05. Missing tests are those which would have been accepted but close to being rejected (p-values between :25 and :10). We show that this pattern corresponds to a shift in the distribution of p-values: between 10% and 20% of marginally rejected tests are misallocated. Our interpretation is that researchers might be tempted to inflate the value of their tests by choosing the specification that provides the highest statistics. Note that Inflation is larger in articles where stars are used in order to highlight statistical significance and lower in articles with theoretical models.Les journaux académiques ont tendance à préférer les articles rejetant l'hypothèse nulle. Cette sélection peut conduire les chercheurs à modifier leurs comportements. Grâce à un échantillon de 50 000 tests d'hypothèse publiés entre 2005 et 2011 dans l'AER, le JPE et le QJE, nous identifions un résidu dans la distribution de ces tests qui ne peut s'expliquer par la seule sélection. La distribution des valeurs p présente une forme en " bosse de chameaux " avec une surpopulation au dessus de 0,25, un creux entre 0,25 et 0,10 et enfin une nouvelle surabondance en-dessous de 0,10. Les tests absents de cette distribution sont ceux dont l'hypothèse nulle n'a pu être rejetée mais qui étaient proche du seuil de rejet (valeur p entre 0,25 et 0.10). Nous montrons que la forme particulière de cette distribution correspond à un déplacement des valeurs p : environ 10% à 20% des tests d'hypothèse marginalement rejetés sont mal situés. Nous interprétons cela comme la possibilité qu'en choisissant la spécification qui produit les statistiques les plus élevées, les chercheurs peuvent engendrer une inflation de la valeur des tests d'hypothèse. Cette inflation est plus importante dans les articles utilisant des étoiles dans le but de souligner la significativité statistique des résultats. En revanche, elle est moins présente dans les articles proposant un modèle théorique

Do Pre-registration and Pre-analysis Plans Recue p-Hacking and Publication Bias? Evidence from 15,922 Tests Statistics and Suggestions for Improvement

Pre-registration is regarded as an important contributor to research credibility. We investigate this by analyzing the pattern of test statistics from the universe of randomized controlled trials (RCT) studies published in 15 leading economics journals. We draw two conclusions: (a) Pre-registration frequently does not involve a pre-analysis plan (PAP), or sufficient detail to constrain meaningfully the actions and decisions of researchers after data is collected. Consistent with this, we find no evidence that pre-registration in itself reduces p-hacking and publication bias. (b) When pre-registration is accompanied by a PAP we find evidence consistent with both reduced p-hacking and publication bias.<br/

Do Pre-registration and Pre-analysis Plans Recue p-Hacking and Publication Bias?:Evidence from 15,992 Test Statistics and Suggestions for Improvement

Pre-registration is regarded as an important contributor to research credibility. We investigate this by analyzing the pattern of test statistics from the universe of randomized controlled trials (RCT) studies published in 15 leading economics journals. We draw two conclusions: (a) Pre-registration frequently does not involve a pre-analysis plan (PAP), or sufficient detail to constrain meaningfully the actions and decisions of researchers after data is collected. Consistent with this, we find no evidence that pre-registration in itself reduces p-hacking and publication bias. (b) When pre-registration is accompanied by a PAP we find evidence consistent with both reduced p-hacking and publication bias.<br/

Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back

Journals favor rejection of the null hypothesis. This selection upon tests may distort the behavior of researchers. Using 50,000 tests published between 2005 and 2011 in the AER, JPE, and QJE, we identify a residual in the distribution of tests that cannot be explained by selection. The distribution of p-values exhibits a two humped camel shape with abundant p-values above 0.25, a valley between 0.25 and 0.10, and a bump slightly below 0.05. The missing tests (with p-values between 0.25 and 0.10) can be retrieved just after the 0.05 threshold and represent 10% to 20% of marginally rejected tests. Our interpretation is that researchers might be tempted to inflate the value of those just-rejected tests by choosing a “significant” specification. We propose a method to measure this residual and describe how it varies by article and author characteristics

The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Occupation Tasks and Mental Health in Canada

In this paper, we document the short-term impact of COVID-19 on labour market outcomes in Canada. Following a pre-analysis plan, we investigate the negative impact of the pandemic on unemployment, labour force participation, hours and wages in Canada. We find that COVID-19 had drastic negative effects on labour market outcomes, with the largest effects for younger, not married, and less educated workers. We investigate whether the economic consequences of this pandemic were larger for certain occupations. We then built indices for whether (1) workers are relatively more exposed to disease, (2) work with proximity to coworkers, (3) are essential workers, and (4) can easily work remotely. Our estimates suggest that the impact of the pandemic was significantly more severe for workers more exposed to disease and workers that work in proximity to coworkers, while the effects are significantly less severe for essential workers and workers that can work remotely. Last, we rely on a unique survey, the Canadian Perspective Survey, and show that reported mental health is significantly lower among the most affected workers during the pandemic. We also find that those who were absent form work because of COVID-19 are more concerned with meeting their financial obligations and with losing their job than those who remain working outside of home, while those who transition from working outside the home to from home are not as concerned with job loss