A geography-based critique of new US biofuels regulations

The new renewable fuels standard (RFS 2) aims to distinguish corn-ethanol that achieves a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared with gasoline. Field data from Kim et al. (2009) and from our own study suggest that geographic variability in the GHG emissions arising from corn production casts considerable doubt on the approach used in the RFS 2 to measure compliance with the 20% target. If regulators wish to require compliance of fuels with specific GHG emission reduction thresholds, then data from growing biomass should be disaggregated to a level that captures the level of variability in grain corn production and the application of life cycle assessment to biofuels should be modified to capture this variability

Conservation to sustain ecological processes and services in landscapes of the Americas.

Ecosystem services are fundamental to the development of sustainable landscapes but are largely ignored or taken for granted in land management strategies. Ecosystems, and the ecological processes that define them, form the natural infrastructure supporting human activities to enhance the economic and social well-being of communities. This chapter draws upon results from across the IAI research network and associated programs to review our current knowledge of ecosystem processes that should be considered when making decisions on designing areas for protection in cultural or highly-intervened landscapes. Taking ecosystem services into consideration will help decision-makers identify the different components of a landscape that are providing essential services and which should be preserved within a sustainable landscape development plan

Impact of global warming on beef cattle production cost in Brazil

Global warming is affecting agribusiness in its economic aspects. Therefore, the prediction of the evolution of Brazilian beef cattle production cost was made using the IPCC forecast scenario for global warming. The methodology consisted of two steps: (i) the development of a fuzzy model that estimated the grazing land capacity (RP) decrease risk as a function of the changes in the average total rain index, air temperature and increase in extension of the dry season; and (ii) the design of an algorithm for predicting the decrease in production as function of the RPfuzzy model, that results in the impact in beef cattle productivity, and consequent increase in production costs. Historical environmental data from important producing counties in the Cerrado were organized and a set of fuzzy Gaussian functions were developed, and three possible settings (optimistic, medium and pessimistic) were considered. The decrease in beef cattle productivity was estimated using the losses in production due to the increase in air temperature and vulnerability of pasture capacity. The boundary settings for the total increase of production cost scenario used the number of animals per area of grazing land, the adoption of grain supplement and its future scenario; and the result output function pointed to a threshold within a variation from an increase in production cost of 80% (optimistic) to 160% (pessimistic). Under the optimistic scenario the total cost of Brazilian beef cattle production in the Cerrado became near to US$2.88 kg-1, while in the pessimistic scenario this cost reached US$ 4.16 kg-1, challenging the international competitiveness of this economic segment.O aquecimento global afeta o agronegócio em seus aspectos econômicos. Foi feita previsão daevolução do custo de produção de carne bovina brasileira usando a predição de aquecimento global do IPCC. A metodologia consistiu de duas etapas: (i) o desenvolvimento de modelo fuzzy que estimou o risco de decréscimo da capacidade de pastagens (RP) em função das mudanças no índice pluviométrico total, na temperatura do ar e na extensão da estação de seca; e (ii) o desenvolvimento de um algoritmo para predição do decréscimo da produção em função de um modelo fuzzy de RP que resulte no impacto na produtividade bovina de corte e conseqüente aumento no custo de produção. Foram organizados os dados históricos de fatores ambientais dos municípios importante produção no Cerrado e um conjunto de funções Gaussianas fuzzy foi desenvolvido e três estimativas possíveis (otimista, média e negativa) foram consideradas. O decréscimo na produtividade do gado foi estimado usando as perdas de produção devido ao acréscimo da temperatura bem como da vulnerabilidade da capacidade de pastagem. O estabelecimento dos limites para o cenário do acréscimo do custo de produção usou o número de unidade animal por área de pastagem, a adoção de suplemento de grãos e o cenário de produção futura; e o resultado da função de saída apontou para uma variação do acréscimo do custo de produção de 80% (otimista) até 160% (pessimista). Sob o cenário otimista, o custo total da produção brasileira de carne bovina no Cerrado chega a US$2,88 kg-1, enquanto no cenário pessimista este custo pode atingir US$ 4,16 kg-1, o que pode comprometer a competitividade internacional do setor

Advancing our understanding of the vulnerability of farming to climate change

Vulnerability is not a new concept. It has been developed and applied by hazards, famine and health resear

Agricultural adaptation to changing environments: Lessons learned from farmers in eastern Ontario, Canada

Agriculture exists in dynamic environments where change is normal. All facets of agri-food systems are constantly exposed to these changes and, when necessary, make adjustments. This study builds on our growing understanding of farm-level adaptations in uncertain environments. It grapples with agriculture change in general and, more specifically, framing climatic change adaptation within the complex and dynamic environments that farmers negotiate on a daily basis. Engagement with the farming community was in conjunction with the Dundas County Federation of Agriculture, occurred during 2009-2013, and included the co-hosting of two focus group meetings plus the administration of 42 in-depth interviews. Many changes in Dundas County over the past 30 years mirror broader sectoral trends, including a decline in the number of farms (-40%) coupled with increases in farm size (+61%) and the age of farm operators (+14%). One significant difference however is that farming continues to be the main economic activity in Dundas County with only a slight decline (-3%) in the overall area devoted to farming. The continued strength of farming reflects the willingness and ability of farmers to embrace technological improvements as well as consolidate farm operations in order to manage costs and buffer uncertainties. Farmers are confident they can manage anticipated changes over the next two decades but are concerned with potential negative impacts associated with more government regulations and farm succession. Climate change, especially increases in the incidence of extreme events, is viewed as another but manageable uncertainty that will need to be factored into longer-term decisions