Aggregation Issues in Integrating and Accelerating BEA's Accounts: Improved Methods for Calculating GDP by Industry

Aggregate measures of real GDP growth obtained from the GDP by Industry Accounts often differ from the featured measure of real GDP growth obtained from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). We find that differences in source data account for most of the difference in aggregate real output growth rates; very little is due to the treatment of the statistical discrepancy, differences in aggregation methods, or the contributions formula. Moreover, we demonstrate that with consistent data, use of BEA's Fisher-Ideal aggregation procedures to aggregate value added over industries yields the same estimate of real GDP as aggregation over final commodities. Thus, two major approaches to measuring real GDP -- "expenditures" approach used in the NIPAs and the "production" or "industry" approach used in the Industry Accounts -- give the same answer under certain conditions. This result enables us to show that the "exact contributions" formula that the NIPAs use to calculate commodity contributions to change in real GDP can also be used to calculate consistent industry contributions to change in real GDP. We also find that using some newly developed datasets would help to bring the aggregate real output measures into closer alignment.

Slip and Fall Risks: Pre-Slip Gait Contributions and Post-Slip Response Effects

This thesis describes analysis methods and results from slip-perturbed gait experiments. The risk for falls was related both to the conditions present at heel strike and to the nature of the response. Gait analysis was performed using the Human Movement and Balance Laboratory (HMBL) model, a fifteen segment, fourteen joint model of the human body that was developed as part of this thesis effort. Resulting kinematics and kinetics included three-dimensional angles describing relative segment rotations, segmental and whole-body centers-of-mass, and joint actuation torques for the entire body.The relationship between pre-slip gait characteristics and the magnitude of slips was explored for both younger and older adults. Slip severity, either hazardous or non-hazardous, was determined using a 1.0 m/s peak slip velocity threshold. Hazardous slips were associated with greater step lengths normalized by leg length, larger and more rapidly changing foot-floor angles at heel strike, and increased cadence across the two subject groups. These results suggest that gait characteristics play an important role in the severity of slips. Older adults were found to walk with shorter step lengths and with smaller and more slowly changing foot-floor angles at heel strike compared to younger subjects, suggesting that age effects also impact slip severity.The effects of slipping and trailing leg response on slip outcome (falls or recoveries) were explored. Slip severity was found to be the most significant parameter related to outcome. Response strategies were classified, based on trailing leg dynamics, as either minimal, foot-flat, mid-flight, or toe-down. Slipping and trailing leg hip and knee torques were determined using the HMBL model and timing and magnitude parameters from these torques were then identified. Relationships between these parameters, age group (younger/older), response strategy, and outcome were then explored. Age was not found to be significantly related to response strategy or outcome, nor was response strategy found to be related to outcome. Slipping leg knee torque timing and magnitude parameters were related to slip severity and to outcome for hazardous slips. These results suggest that slip responses, coupled with slip severity, determine fall or recovery outcomes

A Reconciliation between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) prepares the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), and the Bureau of Economic Analysis prepares the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) chain-type price index. Both indexes measure the prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Because the two indexes are based on different underlying concepts, they are constructed differently, and tend to behave differently over time. From the first quarter of 2002 through the second quarter of 2007, the CPI-U increased 0.4 percentage point per year faster than the PCE price index. This paper details and quantifies the differences in growth rates between the CPI-U and the PCE price index; it provides a quarterly reconciliation of growth rates for the 2002:Q1- 2007:Q2 time period. There are several factors that explain the differences in growth rates between the CPI and the PCE price index. First, the indexes are based on difference index-number formulas. The CPI-U is based on a Laspeyres index; the PCE price index is based on a Fisher-Ideal index. Second, the relative weights assigned to the detailed item prices in each index are different because they are based on different data sources. The weights used in the CPIU are based on a household survey, while the weights used in the PCE price index are based on business surveys. Third, there are scope differences between the two indexes— that is, there are items in the CPI-U that are out-of-scope of the PCE price index, and there are items in the PCE price index that are out-of-scope of the CPI-U. And finally, there are differences in the seasonal-adjustment routines and in the detailed price indexes used to construct the two indexes. Over the 2002:Q1-2007:Q2 time period, this analysis finds that almost half of the 0.4 percentage point difference in growth rates between the CPI-U and the PCE price index was explained by differences in index-number formulas. After adjusting for formula differences, differences in relative weights—primarily “rent of shelter”—more than accounted for the remaining difference in growth rates. Net scope differences, in contrast, partly offset the effect of relative weight differences.

Integrating Industry and National Economic Accounts: First Steps and Future Improvements

The integration of the annual I-O accounts with the GDP-by-industry accounts is the most recent in a series of improvements to the industry accounts provided by the BEA in recent years. BEA prepares two sets of national industry accounts: The I-O accounts, which consist of the benchmark I-O accounts and the annual I-O accounts, and the GDPby- industry accounts. Both the I-O accounts and the GDP-by-industry accounts present measures of gross output, intermediate inputs, and value added by industry. However, in the past, they were inconsistent because of the use of different methodologies, classification frameworks, and source data. The integration of these accounts eliminated these inconsistencies and improved the accuracy of both sets of accounts. The integration of the annual industry accounts represents a major advance in the timeliness, accuracy, and consistency of these accounts, and is a result of significant improvements in BEA's estimating methods. The paper describes the new methodology, and the future steps required to integrate the industry accounts with the NIPAs. The new methodology combines source data between the two industry accounts to improve accuracy; it prepares the newly integrated accounts within an I-O framework that balances and reconciles industry production with commodity usage. Moreover, the new methodology allows the acceleration of the release of the annual I-O accounts by 2 years and for the first time, provides a consistent time series of annual I-O accounts. Three appendices are provided: A description of the probability-based method to rank source data by quality; a description of the new balancing produced for producing the annual I-O accounts; and a description of the computation method used to estimate chaintype price and quantity indexes in the GDP-by-industry accounts.

Acoustic Remote-Sensing of Reef Benthos in Broward County, Florida (USA)

Benthic assemblages of variable density cover three progressively deeper ridges that parallel the Broward County, Florida, coast. An acoustic bottom classification survey using QTCView5 with a 50 kHz transducer showed different acoustic classes on the shallow reef-ridge and the two deeper reef-lines, which both showed the same acoustic signature. Ground-truthing showed that the differences in acoustic signature corresponded to different benthic assemblages: nearshore hardgrounds had low live cover and were dominated by algae covering substrate, the two deeper reef-ridges had the same acoustic signature and similar benthic assemblages (dominated by sponges and gorgonians). The QTCView5 was also able to differentiate between stable sands covered by a thin red algae turf and more mobile sand without turf cover. Acoustic remote-sensing methods can be used to differentiate benthic assemblages, as long as enough differences exist in the growth-form characteristics of the dominant species to provide for a different acoustic roughness

Development of GIS Maps for Southeast Florida Coral Reefs

The present report outlines the results of an integrated mapping project undertaken to provide a habitat map of the shallow Broward County seafloor between the 0m and 35m contour. The study area stretched from Golden Beach in northern Dade County to just north of the Palm Beach County line. To produce this map and assure its compatibility with other, in particular NOAA, mapping products, a series of data were integrated. Data types included Laser Airborne Depth Sounder (LADS) bathymetry, multi- and single-beam bathymetry, acoustic seafloor discrimination, ecological assessments, and groundtruthing. The method used for acoustic seafloor discrimination was based on the first echo and its associated tail, and on the second echo returns of a 200 kHz signal. Two survey systems were employed: QTC View and Echoplus. A series of controlled experiments and field verifications indicated that it was possible to distinguish acoustically between different scattering classes that correlated to different seafloor types. For the production of the final map, information obtained from LADS bathymetry, NOAA classification and scattering classes obtained by QTC View and Echoplus was fused. The final map showed three well-developed linear reef complexes, a series of deep and shallow ridges believed to be old shorelines, a large sand area between the middle and outer reefs, and a considerable amount of colonized pavement. Due to the lack of distinct geomorphologic zones, the maps were based solely on habitat as defined by the NOAA biogeography program; however distinctions between areas such as linear reef, spur and groove, and colonized pavement were based on benthic cover (as seen by acoustic seafloor discrimination and biological transects) and geomorphology. The outer linear reef was subdivided into four habitats: aggregated patch reef, spur and groove, linear reef and deep colonized pavement. The area east of the outer linear reef consisted of a very patchy environment with large patches of reef interspersed amongst the deep sand. These were more prevalent close to the reef and tapered off eastward, becoming sandier. The spur and groove, linear reef, and deep colonized pavement comprised the outer reef and were separated mainly based on geomorphology. The outer reef was separated from the middle linear reef by a wide sandy plane (deep sand), which was characterized overall by a different scattering class in QTC View than the shallow sand found inshore. Acoustic ground discrimination identified patches of higher scatter and lower scatter amongst the outer, middle, and inner linear reefs suggesting distinct benthic cover between these structures. The eastern boundary of the middle reef was distinct and easily mapped whereas acoustic discrimination aided in determining the western boundary. The inner reef was the least distinct reef as it is not a mature reef. Much of this reef is patchy growth atop an inshore ridge and reef zonation is absent. Acoustic ground discrimination suggested that patches of higher versus lower scatter existed between and within the linear reefs, indicating that dense fauna is patchily distributed. Shoreward of the inner reef, another sand area or a mixture of sand and colonized pavements were found. Several nearshore ridges were mapped that could be classified as linear reef habitat, but were thought to be of non-reefal origin. Therefore these structures were mapped separately even though similar habitat comprises the inshore ridges, the inner linear reef, and the shallow colonized pavements. Excluded habitats such as submerged vegetation and large rubble zones were not detected sufficiently enough to be mapped during this effort. Groundtruthing by way of underwater video drop cameras and in situ biological assessments aided in the refinement of the mapping categories. Accuracy assessment of an independent grid of target points showed the map to have a users accuracy between 83% and 97% and a producers accuracy between 81% and 95%. These are acceptable accuracies and compare similarly to NOAA published map accuracies. In conclusion, the amalgamation of several mapping approaches and data products provided a representative map of Broward County submarine habitats that was accurate to a very satisfactory level. The results of this survey are a good example of how similar mapping products can be attained through different means. The method employed to map Broward County appears to have equally and accurately illustrated the benthic community as more traditional methods like photo interpretation. Similar methodology should be used in other areas where photo interpretation is not feasible due to either absence of data or the turbidity of the water

A Tale of Germs, Storms, and Bombs: Geomorphology and Coral Assemblage Structure at Vieques (Puerto Rico) Compared to St. Croix (U.S. Virgin Islands)

The former U.S. Navy range at Vieques Island (Puerto Rico, United States) is now the largest national wildlife refuge in the Caribbean. We investigated the geomorphology and benthic assemblage structure to understand the status of the coral reefs. Coral assemblages were quantified at 24 sites at Vieques and at 6 sites at St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. These sites were chosen to represent the major zones of reef geomorphology. Sites consisted of two or three 21-m-long photo-quadrate belt transects. The results revealed surprisingly little differentiation in the coral assemblages within and between reefs of comparable geomorphological and oceanographic setting at Vieques and St. Croix. At Vieques, the Acropora palmata zone was almost completely lost, and it was severely reduced at St. Croix, presumably primarily due to diseases and hurricane impacts since the 1970s. Subtle, but nonsignificant, differences with respect to the nature of the shelf margin (north adjacent to the bank, south adjacent to the open sea) and depth zone were observed at Vieques. At St. Croix, benthic assemblages differed more between depth zones but not between north and south. Effects of natural disturbances were severe at Vieques, outweighing impacts of past military activity— which were present but not quantitatively discernible at our scale of sampling. Germs and storms, rather than bombs (and associated naval activities), primarily seem to have taken the worst toll on corals at both Vieques and St. Croix

Structure of Lo'ihi Seamount, Hawai'i and lava flow morphology from high-resolution mapping.

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Clague, D. A., Paduan, J. B., Caress, D. W., Moyer, C. L., Glazer, B. T., & Yoerger, D. R. Structure of Lo'ihi Seamount, Hawai'i and lava flow morphology from high-resolution mapping. Frontiers in Earth Science, 7, (2019):58, doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00058.The early development and growth of oceanic volcanoes that eventually grow to become ocean islands are poorly known. In Hawai‘i, the submarine Lō‘ihi Seamount provides the opportunity to determine the structure and growth of such a nascent oceanic island. High-resolution bathymetric data were collected using AUV Sentry at the summit and at two hydrothermal vent fields on the deep south rift of Lō‘ihi Seamount. The summit records a nested series of caldera and pit crater collapse events, uplift of one resurgent block, and eruptions that formed at least five low lava shields that shaped the summit. The earliest and largest caldera, formed ∼5900 years ago, bounds almost the entire summit plateau. The resurgent block was uplifted slightly more than 100 m and has a tilted surface with a dip of about 6.5° toward the SE. The resurgent block was then modified by collapse of a pit crater centered in the block that formed West Pit. The shallowest point on Lō‘ihi’s summit is 986 m deep and is located on the northwest edge of the resurgent block. Several collapse events culminated in formation of East Pit, and the final collapse formed Pele’s Pit in 1996. The nine mapped collapse and resurgent structures indicate the presence of a shallow crustal magma chamber, ranging from depths of ∼1 km to perhaps 2.5 km below the summit, and demonstrate that shallow sub-caldera magma reservoirs exist during the late pre-shield stage. On the deep south rift zone are young medium- to high-flux lava flows that likely erupted in 1996 and drained the shallow crustal magma chamber to trigger the collapse that formed Pele’s Pit. These low hummocky and channelized flows had molten cores and now host the FeMO hydrothermal field. The Shinkai Deep hydrothermal site is located among steep-sided hummocky flows that formed during low-flux eruptions. The Shinkai Ridge is most likely a coherent landslide block that originated on the east flank of Lō‘ihi.Funding for the collection of the data was provided by the National Science Foundation OCE1155756 to CM and the Schmidt Ocean Institute to BG. Support for DC and JP to process the data and write the manuscript was provided by a grant from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation to MBARI