Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Risk Management Among Georgia Farmers

Recent increases in the scientific robustness of seasonal climate forecasts have not led to substantial changes in farmers’ risk management strategies of actors, largely because there is poor integration of scientific forecasting into farmers’ decision-making processes. The goal of the research presented here is to explore the potentials and constraints for farmers’ application of seasonal climate forecasts through an analysis of the cultural contexts of their decision-making and information use. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 38 farmers in southern Georgia, examining their approaches, risk-management, to livelihood goals and strategies, and interactions with weather and climate information. Findings indicate that farmers’ management of risks associated with climate variability is embedded within a broad array of social factors, including subjective construction of social and personal identities, goals, and values. These cultural contexts affect the ways that farmers interpret and might apply seasonal climate forecasts to agricultural decisions. These findings indicate that, rather than simply acting as a technical information input, seasonal climate forecasts and forecasters must gradually work theirway into farmers’ trusted social networks before their potential as risk management tools will be realized. Furthermore, while seeking to produce scientific information to support farmers’ adaptive practices, scientists themselves must adapt their own practices to better fit a coproduction of knowledge approach

Forecast Skill and Farmers' Skills: Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Agricultural Risk Management in the Southeastern United States

During the last 10 yr, research on seasonal climate forecasts as an agricultural risk management tool has pursued three directions: modeling potential impacts and responses, identifying opportunities and constraints, and analyzing risk communication aspects. Most of these approaches tend to frame seasonal climate forecasts as a discrete product with direct and linear effects. In contrast, the authors propose that agricultural management is a performative process, constituted by a combination of planning, experimentation, and improvisation and drawing on a mix of technical expertise, situated knowledge, cumulative experience, and intuitive skill as farmers navigate a myriad of risks in the pursuit of livelihood goals and economic opportunities. This study draws on ethnographic interviews conducted with 38 family farmers in southern Georgia, examining their livelihood goals and social values, strategies for managing risk, and interactions with weather and climate information, specifically their responses to seasonal climate forecasts. Findings highlight the social nature of information processing and risk management, indicating that both material conditions and value-based attitudes bear upon the ways farmers may integrate climate predictions into their agricultural management practices. These insights translate into specific recommendations that will enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of seasonal climate forecasts among farmers and will promote the incorporation of such information into a skillful performance in the face of climate uncertaint