Shifting to tenofovir use in first-line antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive adults in public sector treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa

The success of scale up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is in large part due to the introduction of a “public health approach” to access advocated by the World Health Organization (WHO) which emphasized standardized treatment regimens that could be purchased in large quantities and delivered at scale. In 2010 the WHO updated their global HIV treatment guidelines recommending the substitution of stavudine with tenofovir (both of which are members of the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) class of drugs) in first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). Given the size of treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa, changing the NRTI used in first-line therapy for HIV could have a substantial impact on treatment outcomes. We conducted three prospective cohort studies using clinical datasets from several sub-Saharan African countries to answer questions surrounding the impacts of exposure to tenofovir in first-line therapy. The first study examines the frequency of stavudine use and single-drug substitutions (substituting the NRTI in first-line ART) in three regions in sub-Saharan Africa by calendar year, 2004–2014. We found a total of 33,441 (8.9%; 95% CI: 8.7–8.9%) single-drug substitutions occurred among 377,656 patients in the first 24 months on ART, close to 40% of which were amongst patients on stavudine. The decrease in single-drug substitutions corresponded with the phasing out of stavudine. We saw an 80% reduction in the risk of single-drug substitutions when comparing tenofovir to stavudine and close to a 70% reduction in the risk when comparing zidovudine to stavudine. The second study uses a regression discontinuity design to evaluate the impact of national HIV treatment guideline changes in South Africa and Zambia recommending tenofovir in first-line ART on treatment outcomes. We found that updated WHO guidelines increased the proportion of patients initiating tenofovir (risk difference (RD) (South Africa): 81%; 95% CI: 73%, 89%; RD (Zambia): 42%; 95% CI: 38%, 45%). Intent to treat estimates showed a decrease in single-drug substitutions in South Africa (RD: -15%; 95% CI: -18%, -12%) and Zambia (RD: -2.0%; 95% CI: -3.6%, -0.3%). In both countries, there was no effect on mortality, attrition or viral load failure (South Africa only). The third study investigates the effect of the 2012 tenofovir stock shortage in South Africa on provider and patient level outcomes, using data from four public-sector Right to Care clinics, two of which experienced a tenofovir stock shortage and two that did not. While imprecise, our results suggest a potential shift in how providers managed patients during the period of the shortage, mainly, a noticeable decrease in the average number of days between visits during the shortage compare to before or after at all four clinics and a significant difference in the proportion of patients missing visits. Difference-in-difference regression results showed a small, but significant, increase in the risk of missed visits during the shortage compared to after (RD: 1.2%; 95% CI: 0.5%, 2.0%), mainly driven by ACTs clinic. No significant difference was seen in other outcomes. Great strides have been made to extend access to ART as well as increase the quality of the services provided to patients in sub-Saharan Africa. Continued access to and a consistent supply of tenofovir in this setting is necessary for patients to receive drugs that are comparable to those used for HIV treatment in high-income countries, as we show that phasing out of stavudine and for either zidovudine or tenofovir potentially reduced toxicities and potentially improved quality of life in multiple regions throughout sub-Saharan Africa. While we show little effect on treatment outcomes when comparing patients accessing care and treatment during the shortage of tenofovir compared to those that did not, this most likely reflects the clinics’ ability to offset the crisis by continuing to initiate newly diagnosed and eligible patients on treatment and keep treatment experienced patients on their current regimen

Timing of pregnancy, postpartum risk of virologic failure and loss to follow-up among HIV-positive women.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the association between the timing of pregnancy with the risk of postpartum virologic failure and loss from HIV care in South Africa. METHODS: The incidence of virologic failure (two consecutive viral load measurements of >1000 copies/ml) and loss to follow-up (>3 months late for a visit) during 24 months postpartum were assessed using Cox proportional hazards modelling. RESULTS: The rate of postpartum virologic failure was higher following an incident pregnancy on ART [adjusted hazard ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-2.7] than among women who initiated ART during pregnancy. This difference was sustained among women with CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl at delivery (adjusted hazard ratio 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1-3.0). Predictors of postpartum virologic failure were being viremic, longer time on ART, being 25 or less years old and low CD4 cell count and anaemia at delivery, as well as initiating ART on stavudine-containing or abacavir-containing regimen. There was no difference postpartum loss to follow-up rates between the incident pregnancies group (hazard ratio 0.9, 95% CI: 0.7-1.1) and those who initiated ART in pregnancy. CONCLUSION: The risk of virologic failure remains high among postpartum women, particularly those who conceive on ART. The results highlight the need to provide adequate support for HIV-positive women with fertility intention after ART initiation and to strengthen monitoring and retention efforts for postpartum women to sustain the benefits of ART

Systematic differences between Cochrane and non-Cochrane meta-analyses on the same topic: a matched pair analysis

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses conducted via the Cochrane Collaboration adhere to strict methodological and reporting standards aiming to minimize bias, maximize transparency/reproducibility, and improve the accuracy of summarized data. Whether this results in differences in the results reported by meta-analyses on the same topic conducted outside the Cochrane Collaboration is an open question. METHODS: We conducted a matched-pair analysis with individual meta-analyses as the unit of analysis, comparing Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews. Using meta-analyses from the cardiovascular literature, we identified pairs that matched on intervention and outcome. The pairs were contrasted in terms of how frequently results disagreed between the Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews, whether effect sizes and statistical precision differed systematically, and how these differences related to the frequency of secondary citations of those reviews. RESULTS: Our search yielded 40 matched pairs of reviews. The two sets were similar in terms of which was first to publication, how many studies were included, and average sample sizes. The paired reviews included a total of 344 individual clinical trials: 111 (32.3%) studies were included only in a Cochrane review, 104 (30.2%) only in a non-Cochrane review, and 129 (37.5%) in both. Stated another way, 62.5% of studies were only included in one or the other meta-analytic literature. Overall, 37.5% of pairs had discrepant results. The most common involved shifts in the width of 95% confidence intervals that would yield a different statistical interpretation of the significance of results (7 pairs). Additionally, 20% differed in the direction of the summary effect size (5 pairs) or reported greater than a 2-fold difference in its magnitude (3 pairs). Non-Cochrane reviews reported significantly higher effect sizes (P < 0.001) and lower precision (P < 0.001) than matched Cochrane reviews. Reviews reporting an effect size at least 2-fold greater than their matched pair were cited more frequently. CONCLUSIONS: Though results between topic-matched Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews were quite similar, discrepant results were frequent, and the overlap of included studies was surprisingly low. Non-Cochrane reviews report larger effect sizes with lower precision than Cochrane reviews, indicating systematic differences, likely reflective of methodology, between the two types of reviews that could generate different interpretations of the interventions under question

Systematic differences between Cochrane and non-Cochrane meta-analyses on the same topic: a matched pair analysis

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses conducted via the Cochrane Collaboration adhere to strict methodological and reporting standards aiming to minimize bias, maximize transparency/reproducibility, and improve the accuracy of summarized data. Whether this results in differences in the results reported by meta-analyses on the same topic conducted outside the Cochrane Collaboration is an open question. METHODS: We conducted a matched-pair analysis with individual meta-analyses as the unit of analysis, comparing Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews. Using meta-analyses from the cardiovascular literature, we identified pairs that matched on intervention and outcome. The pairs were contrasted in terms of how frequently results disagreed between the Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews, whether effect sizes and statistical precision differed systematically, and how these differences related to the frequency of secondary citations of those reviews. RESULTS: Our search yielded 40 matched pairs of reviews. The two sets were similar in terms of which was first to publication, how many studies were included, and average sample sizes. The paired reviews included a total of 344 individual clinical trials: 111 (32.3%) studies were included only in a Cochrane review, 104 (30.2%) only in a non-Cochrane review, and 129 (37.5%) in both. Stated another way, 62.5% of studies were only included in one or the other meta-analytic literature. Overall, 37.5% of pairs had discrepant results. The most common involved shifts in the width of 95% confidence intervals that would yield a different statistical interpretation of the significance of results (7 pairs). Additionally, 20% differed in the direction of the summary effect size (5 pairs) or reported greater than a 2-fold difference in its magnitude (3 pairs). Non-Cochrane reviews reported significantly higher effect sizes (P < 0.001) and lower precision (P < 0.001) than matched Cochrane reviews. Reviews reporting an effect size at least 2-fold greater than their matched pair were cited more frequently. CONCLUSIONS: Though results between topic-matched Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews were quite similar, discrepant results were frequent, and the overlap of included studies was surprisingly low. Non-Cochrane reviews report larger effect sizes with lower precision than Cochrane reviews, indicating systematic differences, likely reflective of methodology, between the two types of reviews that could generate different interpretations of the interventions under question

Research report: "Using what you have to get what you want": Vulnerability to HIV and prevention needs of female post‐secondary students engaged in transactional sex in Kumasi, Ghana

This study was implemented by Boston University in collaboration with the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology with support from the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the U.S. Agency for International Development under Project SEARCH Task Order No. GHH‐I‐00‐07‐00023‐00, beginning August 27, 2010. The content and views expressed here are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect the opinion or policy of USAID or the U.S. Government.This report presents findings from a qualitative study examining vulnerability to HIV of female post‐secondary students engaged in transactional sex in Kumasi, Ghana and their prevention needs. The study was conducted by Boston University’s Center for Global and Health and Development (CGHD) and the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST) as part of Project SEARCH funded by the United States Agency for International Development Ghana. Participants were recruited from five post‐secondary institutions in the greater Kumasi area. Our objective is to provide academic institutions, the Ghana AIDS Commission (GAC), the National AIDS Control Program, donors, and other stakeholders with rich data to inform research and programmatic efforts in Kumasi specifically, as well as academic institutions in general. We set out to document what forms of transactional sex female students are engaging in, who their partners are, and what motivates them to participate. We asked students about the individual and structural vulnerabilities for HIV reported by female post‐secondary students involved in transactional sex and what their prevention needs are. We also interviewed a small sample of faculty, residence hall matrons, and hotel staff to get their perspective on the behavior of female students practicing transactional sex that might put them at risk for HIV. The findings of this study can be used as well to inform the design of future studies of young women engaging in transactional sex in Ghana. With such limited understanding of HIV transmission among young female post‐secondary students engaged in transactional sex, research is needed to determine how this group contributes to the overall HIV epidemic. The Ghana AIDS Commission has recognized the need for further research among communities engaged in less well‐defined risky sex practices in the National Strategic Plan for Most‐at – Risk Populations (MARP) 2011‐2015.4 This study attempts to fill in gaps in the research regarding transactional sex, taking into account the complexities and nuances of the practice, in addition to examining the needs of female students for targeted HIV prevention programs.Support from the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the U.S. Agency for International Development under Project SEARCH Task Order No. GHH‐I‐00‐07‐00023‐00, beginning August 27, 201

Program brief: "Using what you have to get what you want: HIV vulnerability and prevention needs of female post‐secondary students engaged in transactional sex in Kumasi, Ghana

This study was implemented by Boston University in collaboration with the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology with support from the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the U.S. Agency for International Development under Project SEARCH Task Order No. GHH‐I‐00‐07‐00023‐00, beginning August 27, 2010. The content and views expressed here are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect the opinion or policy of USAID or the U.S. Government.HIV prevalence among young Ghanaian men and women aged 15–24 years old is estimated at 1.7%.1 HIV prevalence in the specific population of female post-secondary students is unknown. The Ghana AIDS Commission (GAC) recognizes the need for further research in communities participating in less well-defined risky sex practices. This study was conducted by Boston University’s Center for Global Health and Development and the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology with funding from the United States Agency for International Development/Ghana. The objective was to provide academic institutions, the GAC, the National AIDS Control Program, donors, and other stakeholders with data to inform research and programmatic efforts in Kumasi, specifically, as well as academic institutions, in general. Study participants were recruited from five post-secondary institutions in the greater Kumasi area. Data were collected on students’ perceptions of transactional sex (TS) on campus, individual and structural HIV vulnerabilities, and prevention needs through in-depth interviews with seven female post-secondary students involved in TS and focus groups with twenty-nine female and male students. Key informant interviews were also conducted with faculty, residence hall matrons, and hotel staff. Non-commercial transactional sex is defined here as engaging in sex for the purposeof obtaining material goods, financial support, or grades.Support from the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the U.S. Agency for International Development under Project SEARCH Task Order No. GHH‐I‐00‐07‐00023‐00, beginning August 27, 201

Cohort profile: the Right to Care Clinical HIV Cohort, South Africa

PURPOSE: The research objectives of the Right to Care Clinical HIV Cohort analyses are to: (1) monitor treatment outcomes (including death, loss to follow-up, viral suppression and CD4 count gain among others) for patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART); (2) evaluate the impact of changes in the national treatment guidelines around when to initiate ART on HIV treatment outcomes; (3) evaluate the impact of changes in the national treatment guidelines around what ART regimens to initiate on drug switches; (4) evaluate the cost and cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment delivery models; (5) evaluate the need for and outcomes on second-line and third-line ART; (6) evaluate the impact of comorbidity with non-communicable diseases on HIV treatment outcomes and (7) evaluate the impact of the switch to initiating all patients onto ART regardless of CD4 count. PARTICIPANTS: The Right to Care Clinical HIV Cohort is an open cohort of data from 10 clinics in two provinces within South Africa. All clinics include data from 2004 onwards. The cohort currently has data on over 115 000 patients initiated on HIV treatment and patients are followed up every 3–6 months for clinical and laboratory monitoring. FINDINGS TO DATE: Cohort data includes information on demographics, clinical visit, laboratory data, medication history and clinical diagnoses. The data have been used to identify rates and predictors of first-line failure, to identify predictors of mortality for patients on second-line (eg, low CD4 counts) and to show that adolescents and young adults are at increased risk of unsuppressed viral loads compared with adults. FUTURE PLANS: Future analyses will inform national models of HIV care and treatment to improve HIV care policy in South Africa

Time to review policy on screening for, and managing, hypertension in South Africa : evidence from primary care

Background Current policy in South Africa requires measurement of blood pressure at every visit in primary care. The number of patients regularly visiting primary care clinics for routine care is increasing rapidly, causing long queues, and unmanageable workloads. Methods We used data collected during a randomised control trial in primary care clinics in South Africa to estimate how changes in policy might affect workloads and improve identification of undiagnosed hypertension. Results The prevalence of raised blood pressure increased with age; 65% of individuals aged over 60 years had a raised blood pressure, and 49% of them were not on any treatment. Over three months, eight health facilities saw 8,947 individual chronic disease patients, receiving 22,323 visits from them. Of these visits, 60% were related to hypertension, with or without HIV, and a further 35% were related to HIV alone. Long waits for blood pressure checks caused friction at all levels of the clinics. Blood pressure machines frequently broke down due to heavy use, and high blood pressures readings were often ignored. If chronic disease patients without a diagnosis of hypertension had their blood pressure checked only once a year, the number of checks would be reduced by more than 80%. Individuals with hypertension had a blood pressure check on average once every 7 weeks, but South African guidelines recommend that this should be done every 3 months at most. Conclusions The numbers of chronic disease patients in primary care clinics in South Africa is rising rapidly. New policies for measuring blood pressure in these patients attending clinics are urgently needed

Has the phasing out of stavudine in accordance with changes in WHO guidelines led to a decrease in single-drug substitutions in first-line antiretroviral therapy for HIV in sub-Saharan Africa?

This version is the Accepted Manuscript and is published in final edited form as: AIDS. 2017 January 02; 31(1): 147–157. doi:10.1097/QAD.0000000000001307OBJECTIVE: We assessed the relationship between phasing out stavudine in first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in accordance with WHO 2010 policy and single-drug substitutions (SDS) (substituting the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor in first-line ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN: Prospective cohort analysis (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Multiregional) including ART-naive, HIV-infected patients aged at least 16 years, initiating ART between January 2005 and December 2012. Before April 2010 (July 2007 in Zambia) national guidelines called for patients to initiate stavudine-based or zidovudine-based regimen, whereas thereafter tenofovir or zidovudine replaced stavudine in first-line ART. METHODS: We evaluated the frequency of stavudine use and SDS by calendar year 2004-2014. Competing risk regression was used to assess the association between nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor use and SDS in the first 24 months on ART. RESULTS: In all, 33 441 (8.9%; 95% confience interval 8.7-8.9%) SDS occurred among 377 656 patients in the first 24 months on ART, close to 40% of which were amongst patients on stavudine. The decrease in SDS corresponded with the phasing out of stavudine. Competing risks regression models showed that patients on tenofovir were 20-95% less likely to require a SDS than patients on stavudine, whereas patients on zidovudine had a 75-85% decrease in the hazards of SDS when compared to stavudine. CONCLUSION: The decline in SDS in the first 24 months on treatment appears to be associated with phasing out stavudine for zidovudine or tenofovir in first-line ART in our study. Further efforts to decrease the cost of tenofovir and zidovudine for use in this setting is warranted to substitute all patients still receiving stavudine

Restrictive ID policies: implications for health equity

We wish to thank Synod Community Services for their critical work to develop, support, and implement a local government-issued ID in Washtenaw County, MI. We also thank Yousef Rabhi of the Michigan House of Representatives and Janelle Fa'aola of the Washtenaw ID Task Force, Lawrence Kestenbaum of the Washtenaw County Clerk's Office, Sherriff Jerry Clayton of the Washtenaw County Sherriff's Office, and the Washtenaw ID Task Force for their tireless commitment to developing and supporting the successful implementation of the Washtenaw ID. Additionally, we thank Vicenta Vargas and Skye Hillier for their contributions to the Washtenaw ID evaluation. We thank the Curtis Center for Research and Evaluation at the University of Michigan School of Social Work, the National Center for Institutional Diversity at the University of Michigan, and the University of California-Irvine Department of Chicano/Latino Studies and Program in Public Health for their support of the Washtenaw ID community-academic research partnership. Finally, we thank the reviewers for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript. (Curtis Center for Research and Evaluation at the University of Michigan School of Social Work; National Center for Institutional Diversity at the University of Michigan; University of California-Irvine Department of Chicano/Latino Studies; Program in Public Health)https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10903-017-0579-3.pdfPublished versio