The Impact of Climate on Southeast Asia, circa 950–1820: New Findings

The recent discovery of continuous tree-ring series starting as early as 1030 CE has for the first time made possible the reconstruction of historical climates for much of mainland Southeast Asia. Perhaps the most dramatic finding is that wide cyclic fluctuations in the reach and volume of monsoon rains contributed substantially to both the genesis and the collapse of the charter civilizations of Angkor, Pagan, and Dai Viet. From circa 1450–1820 climate continued to influence political and economic development, but its impact appears to have diminished both because the amplitude of hydrological fluctuations decreased markedly, and because new sources of power rendered early modern Southeast Asian states more resilient. A pioneering collaborative effort by a historian and a paleoclimatologist, this paper promises three benefits: It can help to solve a variety of local historiographic puzzles, it can facilitate construction of a synchronized historical narrative for mainland Southeast Asia as a whole, and it can aid comparisons between mainland Southeast Asia and other sectors of Eurasia

Inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere: evidence from Tasmanian tree rings over the past three millennia

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The characterization of inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is severely constrained by the shortness of the instrumental climate records. To help relieve this constraint, we have developed and analyzed a reconstruction of warm-season (November-April) temperatures from Tasmanian tree rings that now extends back to 800 BC. A detailed analysis of this reconstruction in the time and frequency domains indicates that much of the inter-decadal variability is principally confined to four frequency bands with mean periods of 31, 57, 77, and 200 years. ... In so doing, we show how a future greenhouse warming signal over Tasmania could be masked by these natural oscillations unless they are taken into account

A Changing Temperature Response With Elevation For Lagarostrobos Franklinii In Tasmania, Australia

A network of seven Huon pine ring-width chronologies is constructed from sites ranging in elevation from 200 to 950 metres above sea level in western Tasmania. The chronologies are analysed individually and collectively to explore Huon pine‘s response to climate as a function of elevation. Three chronologies from greater than 700 metres in elevation exhibit a strong, direct response to temperature for most growing season months (p<0.05), while three from below 700 metres exhibit a weaker, direct response to growing-season temperature, and a strong, inverse relationship with temperature of the prior season of growth, also significant at the 0.05 level. Moisture availability at these temperate rainforest sites is less growth-limiting than temperature, and significant correlations for January (inverse) and April (direct) of the year of growth largely reflect the inter-relationships between temperature, precipitation and cloudiness, and their combined influence on photosynthesis, particularly at higher-elevation sites. A rotated Principal Component Analysis reveals a clear grouping of the high and low-elevation chronologies, represented by the first and second eigenvectors, respectively. The 700 metre Lake Marilyn Low chronology is revealed to be a transitional site between the two groupings, and likely reflects an important climatic ecotone where both temperature and photosynthetically-active radiation drop below optimum levels for the species, and begin to directly inhibit growth. Tasmania's west coast climate has been shown to exhibit a distinct vertical structure, exemplified by a subsidence-inversion layer above 900 metres. Temperature increases slightly with altitude above 930 metres (the elevation at which a peak in daily minimum and maximum humidity levels is observed) before decreasing again. A dense, orographically-generated cloud-zone of reduced light and temperature has a mean altitude between 700 and 900 metres, with the steepest drop in both air and soil temperature exhibited between 850 and 930 metres. This structure can account for Huon pine‘s changing response to climate with elevation as described in this paper, and reinforces the importance of careful site selection for dendroclimatic research. In the case of reconstructing warm-season temperature from Tasmanian Huon pine, the desired signal might be maximised through sampling at the few rare, subalpine stands which have been located in western Tasmania. The great length afforded by the low-elevation Huon pine resource may ultimately yield a far more detailed reconstruction of regional climate throughout the Holocene, with respect to a vertical profile, following the development of more sound, mechanistically-based response models

The effect of Holstein-Friesian genotype and feeding system on selected performance parameters of dairy cows on grass-based systems of milk production in Ireland

End of project reportThe overall objective of this project was to assess, the effect of strain of Holstein-Friesian dairy cow, pasture-based feed system (FS) and their interaction on animal performance in terms of milk productivity and lactation profile, body weight (BW), body condition score (BCS), feed intake and energy balance (EB), reproductive performance and overall economic profitability

Intensification of Premonsoon Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Its Impacts on Myanmar

We analyze multiple global reanalysis and precipitation datasets in order to explain the dynamic mechanisms that lead to an observed intensification of the monsoon trough and associated tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) during the premonsoon month of May. We find that post-1979 increases in both premonsoon precipitation and TC intensity are a result of enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, characterized by lower-level cyclonic and upper-level anticyclonic anomalies. Such circulation anomalies are manifest of the tropospheric expansion that is caused by regional warming. The deepened monsoon trough in the BOB not only affects TC frequency and timing, but also acts to direct more cyclones towards Myanmar. We propose that increasing sea surface temperature in the BOB has contributed to an increase in cyclone intensity. Our analyses of the Community Earth System Model single-forcing experiments suggest that tropospheric warming and a deepening of the monsoon trough can be explained by two discreet anthropogenic causes--an increase in absorption due to aerosol loading and an increase in the land-ocean thermal contrast that results from increased greenhouse gases. The ensuing circulation changes provide favorable conditions for TCs to grow and to track eastward towards Myanmar

Decadal scale droughts over northwestern Thailand over the past 448 years: links to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors

A 448-year teak chronology from northwestern Thailand is used to assess past changes in the strength of the summer monsoon. The chronology is based on 30 living trees that extend from 1604 to 2005, and a 47-stump chronology that spans from 1558 to 1903. We used methods of cross dating and chronology building that address problems specifically found in teak. The result is a robust chronology with strong signal strength back to 1600 ad, and with variability retained at the multi-decadal scale. Variability in annual growth in teak from this area is dependent on rainfall and soil moisture availability at both the beginning and end of the monsoon season as confirmed by comparisons with temperature, rainfall and PDSI data. These correlation analyses confirm that our record is a proxy for summer monsoon strength and/or duration, and highlight the importance of soil moisture availability in the seasons of transition. The chronology reveals two prominent periods of decadal-scale drought in the early and mid 1700s that correspond to persistently warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific as derived from Galapagos Island coral records. Speleothem data from central India also indicate protracted periods of drought for the 1700s. While these broad-scale eighteenth-century persistent droughts may be related to protracted El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, regional climate forcing over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific sectors appears to be a strong contributor as well. Spectral analyses reveal power in the ENSO range of variability from 2.2 to 4 years, and at the multi-decadal scale at 48.5 years

Global surface temperature signals in pine ring-width chronologies from southern monsoon Asia

We analyze Pinus ring width chronologies from three locations across monsoon Asia (Bhutan, India, and Thailand) where climate is dominated by the southwest monsoon in the boreal summer. We compare these records to global surface temperatures for the past 150 years, shifting the correlations through three seasonal averages: two seasons preceding the monsoon (Dec–Feb and Mar–May), and the monsoon season itself (Jun–Sep). Clear patterns emerge for each of the chronologies that highlight links to areas of known influence on the Asian monsoon: the Indian Ocean, the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and the high-latitude Asian landmass. The Thai and Indian chronologies are from the same species (P. merkusii), and show a strong correlation with tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean bands. The Bhutan chronology (P. Wallichiana) is most strongly linked to climate over the north Pacific and Asian landmass. All of these correlations are strongest in seasons preceding the summer monsoon

Recent Increases in Tasmanian Huon Pine Ring Widths from a Subalpine Stand: Natural Climate Variability, CO2 Fertilisation, or Greenhouse Warming?

Tasmanian subalpine Huon pines from the extreme high-altitude limit of the species distribution provide a summer temperature reconstruction extending back beyond 800 Be. Compared to low elevation Huon pine sites, the subalpine ring-widths exhibit a straightforward direct response to current growth-season temperatures and indicate anomalous warming of 0.33 ± O.06°C from 1967- 91. This warming is consistent with Tasmanian instrumental records and with hemispheric and global records. The possibility that the trees are responding directly to CO2 fertilisation is explored, using a high-precision record of CO2, obtained from air in Antarctic ice and firn, plus direct measurements of air from Cape Grim. The temperature forcing appears capable of explaining the ring-width variations in the alpine trees over the full range of observed periods, whereas CO2 fertilisation would require a more complex interaction and is not supported by other arguments. Two millennia-long tree-ring reconstructions of summer temperatures from South America do not exhibit the recent warming, nor other features found in the Tasmanian record on decadal to century time-scales. In fact, the South American chronologies bear little resemblance to each other, but do, however, reflect their own regional instrumental records. The Mt Read ring-width chronology, and the instrumental temperature series used for its calibration, also co-vary with climate influences of a distinctly regional character, yet still replicate many of the features reported as hemispheric and global temperatures over the last century. Spectral analysis of the Mt Read tree-ring data over the full 2,792 years suggests that at least part of the recent warming in the instrumental records could be a consequence of "natural forcing" of the record, complicating an interpretation in terms of a greenhouse-forced warming

Monsoon extremes and society over the past millennium on mainland Southeast Asia

The early 21st century has seen vigorous scientific interest in the Asian monsoon and significant development of paleo-proxies of monsoon strength. These include the Monsoon Asian Drought Atlas – a 700-year, gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate derived from 327 tree ring records – and several long speleothem records from China and India. Similar progress has been made on the study of monsoon climate dynamics through re-analysis data products and General Circulation Model diagnostics. The story has emerged of a variable monsoon over the latter Holocene, with extended droughts and anomalously wet episodes that occasionally and profoundly influenced the course of human history. We focus on Southeast Asia where an anomalous period of unstable climate coincided with the demise of the capital of the Khmer Empire at Angkor between the 14th and the 16th centuries, and we suggest that protracted periods of drought and deluge rain events, the latter of which damaged Angkor's extensive water management systems, may have been a significant factor in the subsequent transfer of the political capital away from Angkor. The late 16th and early 17th century experienced climate instability and the collapse of the Ming Dynasty in China under a period of drought, while Tonkin experienced floods and droughts throughout the 17th century. The 18th century was a period of great turmoil across Southeast Asia, when all of the region's polities saw great unrest and rapid realignment during one of the most extended periods of drought of the past millennium. New paleo-proxy records and the incorporation of historical documentation will improve future analyses of the interaction between climate extremes, social behavior and the collapse or disruption of regional societies, a subject of increasing concern given the uncertainties surrounding projections for future climate

Milk production of Holstein-Friesian cows of divergent Economic Breeding Index evaluated under seasonal pasture-based management

peer-reviewedThe objective of this study was to validate the effect of genetic improvement using the Irish genetic merit index, the Economic Breeding Index (EBI), on total lactation performance and lactation profiles for milk yield, milk solids yield (fat plus protein; kg), and milk fat, protein, and lactose content within 3 pasture-based feeding treatments (FT) and to investigate whether an interaction exists between genetic group (GG) of Holstein-Friesian and pasture-based FT. The 2 GG were (1) extremely high EBI representative of the top 5% nationally (referred to as the elite group) and (2) representative of the national average EBI (referred to as the NA group). Cows from each GG were randomly allocated each year to 1 of 3 pasture-based FT: control, lower grass allowance, and high concentrate. The effects of GG, FT, year, parity, and the interaction between GG and FT adjusted for calving day of year on milk and milk solids (fat plus protein; kg) production across lactation were studied using mixed models. Cow was nested within GG to account for repeated cow records across years. The overall and stage of lactation-specific responses to concentrate supplementation (high concentrate vs. control) and reduced pasture allowance (lower grass allowance vs. control) were tested. Profiles of daily milk yield, milk solids yield, and milk fat, protein, and lactose content for each week of lactation for the elite and NA groups within each FT and for each parity group within the elite and NA groups were generated. Phenotypic performance was regressed against individual cow genetic potential based on predicted transmitting ability. The NA cows produced the highest milk yield. Milk fat and protein content was higher for the elite group and consequently yield of solids-corrected milk was similar, whereas yield of milk solids tended to be higher for the elite group compared with the NA group. Milk lactose content did not differ between GG. Responses to concentrate supplementation or reduced pasture allowance did not differ between GG. Milk production profiles illustrated that elite cows maintained higher production but with lower persistency than NA cows. Regression of phenotypic performance against predicted transmitting ability illustrated that performance was broadly in line with expectation. The results illustrate that the superiority of high-EBI cattle is consistent across diverse pasture-based FT. The results also highlight the success of the EBI to deliver production performance in line with the national breeding objective: lower milk volume with higher fat and protein content