A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data

In this paper a parametric framework for estimation and inference in cointegrated panel data models is considered that is based on a cointegrated VAR(p) model. A convenient two-step estimator is suggested where in the first step all individual specific parameters are estimated, whereas in the second step the long-run parameters are estimated from a pooled least-squares regression. The two-step estimator and related test procedures can easily be modified to account for contemporaneously correlated errors, a feature that is often encountered in multi-country studies. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the two-step estimator and related test procedures outperform semiparametric alternatives such as the FM-OLS approach, especially if the number of time periods is small.

How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model

A high degree of cyclical synchronization between central and east European countries (CEECs) and the euro area is generally seen as a prerequisite for successful EMU enlargement. This paper investigates comovements between CEECs and the euro area. We first establish stylized facts on economic linkages using dynamic correlation and cohesion measures. By means of a large-scale dynamic factor model, we then identify the main structural common euro-area shocks and investigate their transmission to the CEECs in comparison to the current EMU members. We finally carry out a counterfactual experiment which allows us to assess the costs and benefits of accession to EMU for individual CEECs in terms of economic volatilities and the implications of enlargement for synchronization. Overall, our results are mixed. Dynamic business cycle and inflation correlations between CEECs and the euro area are, on average, lower than between individual EMU members and the euro area, but they are higher than for some small peripheral EMU countries. This is confirmed by our other measure, variance shares of output and inflation explained by common euro-area factors. The proliferation of euro-area shocks to the CEECs does not differ significantly from the propagation to EMU countries in most cases. Based on our counterfactual experiment, we do not find significant stabilizing or destabilizing effects through a common monetary policy and fixed exchange rates. We also find that business cycle synchronization between CEECs and between most CEECs and the euro area will increase. There seems to be considerable heterogeneity across CEECs, implying that for some countries, accession to EMU would be more costly than for others. According to our analysis and based on our measures, Poland, Slovenia, Hungary and Estonia are more suitable EMU candidates than other countries. --Dynamic factor models,international business cycles,EMU enlargement,counterfactual experiment

Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models

From time to time, economies undergo far-reaching structural changes. In this paper we investigate the consequences of structural breaks in the factor loadings for the specification and estimation of factor models based on principal components and suggest test procedures for structural breaks. It is shown that structural breaks severely inflate the number of factors identified by the usual information criteria. Based on the strict factor model the hypothesis of a structural break is tested by using Likelihood-Ratio, Lagrange-Multiplier and Wald statistics. The LM test which is shown to perform best in our Monte Carlo simulations, is generalized to factor models where the common factors and idiosyncratic components are serially correlated. We also apply the suggested test procedure to a US dataset used in Stock and Watson (2005) and a euro-area dataset described in Altissimo et al. (2007). We find evidence that the beginning of the so-called Great Moderation in the US as well as the Maastricht treaty and the handover of monetary policy from the European national central banks to the ECB coincide with structural breaks in the factor loadings. Ignoring these breaks may yield misleading results if the empirical analysis focuses on the interpretation of common factors or on the transmission of common shocks to the variables of interest. --Dynamic factor models,structural breaks,number of factors,Great Moderation,EMU

A Residual-Based LM Test for Fractional Cointegration

Nonstationary fractionally integrated time series may possibly be fractionally cointegrated. In this paper we propose a test for the null hypothesis of no cointegration. It builds on a static cointegration regression of the levels of the variables as a first step. In a second step, a univariate LM test is applied to the single equation regression residuals. However, it turns out that the application of the LM test to residuals without further modifications does not result in a limiting standard normal distribution, which contrasts with the situation when the LM test is applied to observed series. Therefore, we suggest a simple modification of the LM test that accounts for the residual effect. At the same time it corrects for eventual endogeneity of the cointegration regression. The proposed modification guarantees a limiting standard normal distribution of the test statistic. Our procedure is completely regression based and hence easy to perform. Monte Carlo experiments establish its validity for finite samples.Long memory, LM test, single equations

Dynamic factor models

Factor models can cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom problems often faced in a regression-based analysis. In this article we review recent work on dynamic factor models that have become popular in macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. By means of an empirical application we demonstrate that these models turn out to be useful in investigating macroeconomic problems. --Principal components,dynamic factors,forecasting

Unit roots and cointegration in panels

This paper provides a review of the literature on unit roots and cointegration in panels where the time dimension (T), and the cross section dimension (N) are relatively large. It distinguishes between the first generation tests developed on the assumption of the cross section independence, and the second generation tests that allow, in a variety of forms and degrees, the dependence that might prevail across the different units in the panel. In the analysis of cointegration the hypothesis testing and estimation problems are further complicated by the possibility of cross section cointegration which could arise if the unit roots in the different cross section units are due to common random walk components. --Panel Unit Roots,Panel Cointegration,Cross Section Dependence,Common Effects

Bidder behavior in repo auctions without minimum bid rate : evidence from the Bundesbank

A distinguishing feature of the ECB’s monetary policy setup is the preannouncement of a minimum bid rate in its weekly repo auctions. However, whenever interest rates are expected to decline, the minimum bid rate is viewed as too high and banks refrain from bidding, severely impeding the ECB’s money market management. To shed more light on banks’ underbidding, we perform a panel analysis of the bidder behavior in the repo auctions of the Bundesbank where no minimum bid rate was set. Our results indicate that neither bank’s participation nor the submitted bid amount is significantly affected by an expected rate cut. This suggests that abandoning the minimum bid rate might increase the efficiency of the ECB’s money market management.Nach dem Vorbild der Deutschen Bundesbank spielen wöchentliche Repo-Auktionen (die Hauptrefinanzierungsgeschäfte) eine zentrale Rolle für die Geldpolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank. Das dort bereitgestellte Refinanzierungsvolumen bestimmt die Liquidität des Bankensektors und der dabei von der EZB gesetzte Mindestbietungssatz gilt als geldpolitischer Leitzins für die Zinssätze am Interbankengeldmarkt. Ausgangspunkt dieser Arbeit ist die Beobachtung, dass die Verwendung eines Mindestbietungssatzes bei Zinssenkungserwartungen zu einem unerwünschten Unterbieten der Banken führt. Im Extremfall eines Bieterstreiks wird das Liquiditätsmanagement der EZB merklich behindert. Thema dieser Studie ist das Bieteverhalten der Banken bei den Repo-Auktionen der Bundesbank, die in den 90er Jahren bei den Zinstendern auf die Vorgabe eines Mindestbietungssatzes verzichtete. Auf der Grundlage individueller Bietedaten wird mit Hilfe panelökonometrischer Methoden untersucht, wie verschiedene Faktoren, wie zum Beispiel Zinserwartungen, Opportunitätskosten, Zinsunsicherheit oder der Bankentyp die Teilnahmeentscheidung und das Bietevolumen einer Bank bei einem Zinstender ohne Mindestbietungssatz bestimmen. Die empirischen Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Zinserwartungen, auch bei den Bundesbank Auktionen das Bieteverhalten der Banken beeinflussten. Allerdings verursachen Zinserwartungen im Gegensatz zur EZB keine abrupten Änderungen im Bieteverhalten und auch keine Bieterstreiks. Offenbar bewirkte das Fehlen eines Mindestbietungssatzes, dass sich die Gebote der Banken und damit der Reposatz und die Zinssätze am Interbankengeldmarkt graduell an ein verändertes Zinsniveau anpassen konnten

An endogeneity correction based on a nonparametric control function approach

This paper considers a linear regression model with an endogenous regressor which is not normally distributed. It is shown that the corresponding coefficient can be consistently estimated without external instruments by adding a rank-based transformation of the regressor to the model and performing standard OLS estimation. In contrast to other approaches, our nonparametric control function approach does not rely on a conformably specified copula. Furthermore, the approach allows for the presence of additional exogenous regressors which may be (linearly) correlated with the endogenous regressor(s). Consistency and further asymptotic properties of the estimator are considered and the estimator is compared with copula based approaches by means of Monte Carlo simulations. An empirical application on wage data of the US current population survey demonstrates the usefulness of our method