Economic trends and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index

This article discusses an experimental methodology for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index—a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and inflationary pressure. The goal is to see how well it accounts for recent structural changes in the U.S. economy.Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ; Economic conditions

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and business cycles

This article discusses how the Chicago Fed National Activity Index—a monthly index designed to gauge economic activity and related inflationary pressures—can be used as an indicator of business cycle turning points.Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

Federal Reserve policies and financial market conditions during the crisis

During the recent financial crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of extraordinary and unconventional policies to alleviate the impact of the crisis on financial markets and the economy. In this paper, we examine the effects of these policies on broad financial market conditions, explicitly taking into account that policy was endogenously determined in response to prevailing financial market and economic conditions. We find that the Fed was more likely to initiate or expand new programs when financial market conditions were tighter than usual and economic conditions deteriorating. We also find that the Fed’s policies improved broad financial market conditions significantly at announcement and that the improvements were associated primarily with program initiations and expansions.Federal Reserve Act ; Financial crises - United States

Predicting gross state product growth with the Chicago Fed's Midwest Economy Index

This article explains how the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Midwest Economy Index (MEI) can be used to produce quarterly estimates of the annual gross state product (GSP) growth of each state in the Seventh Federal Reserve District.Economic conditions - Federal Reserve District, 7th ; Federal Reserve District, 7th

Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach

Monitoring financial stability requires an understanding of both how traditional and evolving financial markets relate to each other and how they relate to economic conditions. This article describes two new indexes of financial conditions that aim to quantify these relationships.Financial stability ; Financial crises ; Finance

Gathering insights on the forest from the trees: a new metric for financial conditions

By incorporating the Harvey accumulator into the large approximate dynamic factor framework of Doz et al. (2006), we are able to construct a coincident index of financial conditions from a large unbalanced panel of mixed frequency financial indicators. We relate our financial conditions index, or FCI, to the concept of a "financial crisis" using Markov-switching techniques. After demonstrating the ability of the index to capture "crisis" periods in U.S. financial history, we present several policy-geared threshold rules for the FCI using Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis.Financial crises ; Financial markets

In search of a robust inflation forecast

It is difficult to consistently improve upon forecasts of inflation based solely on the most recent data on inflation. In this article, we show how to do so. Our main finding is that the most robust forecasts combine information from several different forecasting models, each of which incorporates the information in the available inflation indicators in different ways.Inflation (Finance)

Chicago Fed National Activity Index turns ten - analyzing its first decade of performance

This article discusses how the Chicago Fed National Activity Index has performed as a “real-time” indicator of economic activity and related inflationary pressure.

Factors Associated with American Indian Cigarette Smoking in Rural Settings

Introduction: This paper reports on the prevalence, factors and patterns of cigarette smoking among rural California American Indian (AI) adults. Methods: Thirteen Indian health clinic registries formed the random household survey sampling frame (N = 457). Measures included socio-demographics, age at smoking initiation, intention to quit, smoking usage, smoking during pregnancy, health effects of smoking, suicide attempts or ideation, history of physical abuse, neglect and the role of the environment (smoking at home and at work). Statistical tests included Chi Square and Fisher’s Exact test, as well as multiple logistic regression analysis among never, former, and current smokers. Results: Findings confirm high smoking prevalence among male and female participants (44% and 37% respectively). American Indians begin smoking in early adolescence (age 14.7). Also, 65% of current smokers are less than 50% Indian blood and 76% of current smokers have no intention to quit smoking. Current and former smokers are statistically more likely to report having suicidal ideation than those who never smoked. Current smokers also report being neglected and physically abused in childhood and adolescence, are statistically more likely to smoke ½ pack or less (39% vs. 10% who smoke 1+ pack), smoke during pregnancy, and have others who smoke in the house compared with former and never smokers. Conclusion: Understanding the factors associated with smoking will help to bring about policy changes and more effective programs to address the problem of high smoking rates among American Indians

Argument-Checking:A Critical Pedagogy Approach to Digital Literacy

The digital revolution brought about unprecedented changes in people’s daily lives as well as in techno-scientific contexts. In this paper, we address the problem of information overload people experience in online media, news outlets, and social media. The problem is well-known for its negative influence on the quality of online information, with abundant discussion on the promise of fact-checking and the potential role of censorship and moderation by social media. We instead discuss the issue from the perspective of digital literacy; specifically, we advance the view that our procedure of argument-checking can enhance such literacy, as a form of critical pedagogy, thereby contributing to improving the quality of online information