It is difficult to consistently improve upon forecasts of inflation based solely on the most recent data on inflation. In this article, we show how to do so. Our main finding is that the most robust forecasts combine information from several different forecasting models, each of which incorporates the information in the available inflation indicators in different ways.Inflation (Finance)

Jonas D. M. Fisher

Scott Brave

English

Research Papers in Economics

A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series,” manuscript.

Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?,”

Forecasting inflation,”

Forecasting output and inflation: The role of asset prices,”

The Conquest of American Inflation,

The predictive content of the output gap for inflation: Resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence,” manuscript. ,

The role of models and probabilities in the monetary policy process,”

The unreliability of inflation indicators,”

When can we forecast inflation?,” Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, First Quarter,

In search of a robust inflation forecast

http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/2004/ep_4qtr2004_part2_Brave_Fisher.pdf

In search of a robust inflation forecast

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Research Papers in Economics