Crime Emergence and Simulation Modeling: Modeling Crime Space

This chapter explores several new modeling approaches and research findings, showing how they may be used to explore and enhance theory. There is a special emphasis on Target Choice Selection, focusing on Crime Pattern Theory and the Geometry of Crime (Brantingham and Brantingham, 1978a, 1984, 1991; Brantingham and Brantingham, 1981, 1993a, 2008). This exploration is described through a series of research examples and a case study of the target choice behavior of high repeat offenders. The goal is to explore the emergence of patterns better understood against the urban backcloths for high repeat offenders. Emphasis is in this case study is particularly placed on the structural backcloth but will be expanded in future studies to include other backcloth components such as the social, the cultural, the economic, and the derived vernacular architecture that combine with structural components to form neighborhoods

How to Measure Efficiency, Effectiveness, and Equity Within the Complex Role of Police in a Democratic Society: An ICURS Economics of Policing Study

Policing is complex. No easy measures exist for determining efficiency, effectiveness or equity in the overall economics of police service. Perhaps this is related to the fact that the debate on issues like core policing and tiered policing is both contentious and not well understood. For example, dealing with mental health issues in vulnerable communities may not be considered core policing in some discussions but it certainly remains an important element of and a key activity in contemporary policing. We are, nevertheless, making major advances in the 21st Century. Simple crime rate or response time measures have some meaning, but the multi-agency, multi-role character of policing calls for better measures that take into account the underlying public meaning of crime, the varying demands for police service in different jurisdictions, and the rapid increase in cyber crime

Power of Criminal Attractors: Modeling the Pull of Activity Nodes

The spatial distribution of crime has been a long-standing interest in the field of criminology. Research in this area has shown that activity nodes and travel paths are key components that help to define patterns of offending. Little research, however, has considered the influence of activity nodes on the spatial distribution of crimes in crime neutral areas - those where crimes are more haphazardly dispersed. Further, a review of the literature has revealed a lack of research in determining the relative strength of attraction that different types of activity nodes possess based on characteristics of criminal events in their immediate surrounds. In this paper we use offenders' home locations and the locations of their crimes to define directional and distance parameters. Using these parameters we apply mathematical structures to define rules by which different models may behave to investigate the influence of activity nodes on the spatial distribution of crimes in crime neutral areas. The findings suggest an increasing likelihood of crime as a function of geometric angle and distance from an offender's home location to the site of the criminal event. Implications of the results are discussed.Crime Attractor, Directionality of Crime, Mathematical Modeling, Computational Criminology

Towards understanding crime dynamics in a heterogeneous environment:A mathematical approach

Crime data provides information on the nature and location of the crime but, in general, does not include information on the number of criminals operating in a region. By contrast, many approaches to crime reduction necessarily involve working with criminals or individuals at risk of engaging in criminal activity and so the dynamics of the criminal population is important. With this in mind, we develop a mechanistic, mathematical model which combines the number of crimes and number of criminals to create a dynamical system. Analysis of the model highlights a threshold for criminal efficiency, below which criminal numbers will settle to an equilibrium level that can be exploited to reduce crime through prevention. This efficiency measure arises from the initiation of new criminals in response to observation of criminal activity; other initiation routes - via opportunism or peer pressure - do not exhibit such thresholds although they do impact on the level of criminal activity observed. We used data from Cape Town, South Africa, to obtain parameter estimates and predicted that the number of criminals in the region is tending towards an equilibrium point but in a heterogeneous manner - a drop in the number of criminals from low crime neighbourhoods is being offset by an increase from high crime neighbourhoods