Britain can promote private investment and economic growth. Here’s how

The UK investment ecosystem needs rewiring across the board to increase firms’ desire to invest in productive and sustainable assets, and to enhance their ability to do so. Paul Brandily, Mimosa Distefano, Krishan Shah, Gregory Thwaites and Anna Valero set out why this matters and what to do about it

Bridging the productivity gap between different areas in the UK

An economic strategy that helps the UK respond to change and tackle stagnant living standards and weak productivity will need to address stubborn spatial disparities in economic performance across the UK. Addressing these disparities requires a good understanding of their extent, causes and consequences. Paul Brandily, Mimosa Distefano, Hélène Donnat, Immanuel Feld, Henry G. Overman, and Krishan Shah outline what is known about disparities in productivity across the country, the factors that determine them, and the changes that would be needed to reduce them

Time for a strategy to boost productivity in Manchester and beyond

The UK has a significant productivity problem and the poor performance of the nation’s largest cities outside the capital contribute to this problem. Paul Brandily, Mike Brewer, Nye Cominetti, Matt Coombes, Adam Corlett, Lindsay Judge, Felicia Odamtten, Henry Overman, Cara Pacitti, Gui Rodrigues, Krishan Shah, Paul Swinney and Lalitha Try set out what change would be needed to set Greater Manchester on a plausible path for growth

Hysteresis from Adverse Shocks : essays in Applied Economics

Cette thèse comprend trois chapitres mesurant les effets durables de chocs adverses, des effets d’hystérèse. Les trois chapitres sont des travaux d’économie empirique s'appuyant sur des bases de données administratives françaises. Le premier chapitre étudie les conséquences individuelles à long terme des récessions de la fin des années 1970. En suivant tout au long de leur vie les membres d’une cohorte (1957-1974), le chapitre montre qu’il existe un lien entre la résidence pendant l’enfance et le revenu à l’âge adulte. Les enfants qui se trouvaient au 75e percentile d’exposition en 1975 gagnent, en 2018 encore, 6% de moins que les individus ayant des caractéristiques familiales similaires mais qui vivaient au 25e percentile d’exposition. Le second chapitre (écrit avec C. Hémet el C. Malgouyres) étudie des travailleurs licenciés en France (2002 à 2012) et documente l’importance de la réallocation entre firmes pour expliquer leurs pertes de revenus à long-terme. Celle-ci est aussi favorable à la productivité, ce qui semble s'expliquer par une réallocation vers des firmes où les conditions de négociation collective sont relativement moins favorables aux travailleurs. Enfin, le dernier chapitre (écrit avec C. Brébion, S. Briole cl L. Khoury) étudie les inégalités de mortalité en France lors des premières vagues de la pandémie de Covid. Au cours de l’année 2020, les communes les plus pauvres ont connu une augmentation de 30% de la surmortalité. L’exposition par l’emploi et les conditions de logement sont des déterminants majeurs, même si leur rôle respectif varie dans le temps.This thesis includes three chapters that focus on measuring lasting effects of adverse shocks, i.e. hysteresis effects. The three chapters are empirical works based on French administrative databases. The first chapter studies the long-term individual consequences of the recessions of the late 1970s. By following the members of a cohort (1957-1974) throughout their lives, the chapter shows that there exists a link between residence during childhood and income in adulthood. Children who were at the 75th exposure percentile in 1975 still earn 6% less in 2018 than individuals with similar family characteristics but who lived at the 25th exposure percentile. The second chapter (written with C. Hémet and C. Malgouyres) studies laid-off workers in France (2002 to 2012) and documents the importance of reallocation between firms in explaining their long-term income losses. At the same time, this reallocation also appears favourable to productivity, which seems to be explained by a reallocation to firms where collective bargaining conditions are relatively less favourable to workers. Finally, the last chapter (written with C. Brébion, S. Briole and L. Khoury) studies mortality inequalities in France during the first waves of the covid pandemic. During the year 2020, the poorest municipalities experienced a 30% increase in excess mortality. Exposure through employment and housing conditions are major determinants, although their respective roles vary over time

A Poorly Understood Disease? The Unequal Distribution of Excess Mortality Due to COVID-19 Across French Municipalities

While COVID-19 was responsible for more than 600,000 deaths worldwide as of July 24, 2020, very little is known about the socio-economic heterogeneity of its impact on mortality. In this paper, we combine several administrative data sources to estimate the relationship between mortality due to COVID-19 and poverty at a very local level (i.e. the municipality level) in France, one of the most severely hit countries in the world. We find strong evidence of an income gradient in the impact of the pandemic on mortality rates, which is twice as large in municipalities below the 25th percentile of the national income distribution than in municipalities above this threshold. We then show that both poor housing conditions and higher occupational exposure play a key role in this heterogeneity: taken together, these mechanisms account for up to 77% of the difference observed between rich and poor municipalities

Understanding the Reallocation of Displaced Workers to Firms

We study job displacement in France. In the medium run, losses in firm-specific wage premium account for a substantial share of tthe overall cost of displacement. However, and despite the positive correlation between premium and productivity in the cross-section of firms, we find that workers are reemployed by high productivity, low labor share firms. The observed reallocation is therefore productivity-enhancing, yet costly for workers. We show that destination firms are less likely to conclude collective wage agreements and have lower participation rates at professional elections. Overall, our results point to a loss in bargaining power

Understanding the Reallocation of Displaced Workers to Firms

We study job displacement in France. In the medium run, losses in firm-specific wage premium account for a substantial share of tthe overall cost of displacement. However, and despite the positive correlation between premium and productivity in the cross-section of firms, we find that workers are reemployed by high productivity, low labor share firms. The observed reallocation is therefore productivity-enhancing, yet costly for workers. We show that destination firms are less likely to conclude collective wage agreements and have lower participation rates at professional elections. Overall, our results point to a loss in bargaining power

Understanding the Reallocation of Displaced Workers to Firms

We investigate the cost of job displacement using administrative data from France that covers employer and employee over both employment and unemployment spells. We find that displaced workers experience earnings losses both because of a decline in hours worked (especially in the short run) and because of lower re-employment hourly wages. In line with an active literature, we find that loss in employer-specific wage premium drives most of earnings losses in the long run. However, displaced workers tend to be re-employed by more productive firms. This result contrasts strikingly with the strong positive correlation between firms' productivity and wage premium in the cross-section. We further show that the re-employment firms also display lower labor shares. Overall, our results show that the commonly estimated loss in wage premium following job displacement does not reflect a reallocation toward low productivity firms. Instead they are most consistent with a loss in bargaining power and reallocation towards low-labor share firms

A Poorly Understood Disease? The Unequal Distribution of Excess Mortality Due to COVID-19 Across French Municipalities

While COVID-19 was responsible for more than 600,000 deaths worldwide as of July 24, 2020, very little is known about the socio-economic heterogeneity of its impact on mortality. In this paper, we combine several administrative data sources to estimate the relationship between mortality due to COVID-19 and poverty at a very local level (i.e. the municipality level) in France, one of the most severely hit countries in the world. We find strong evidence of an income gradient in the impact of the pandemic on mortality rates, which is twice as large in municipalities below the 25th percentile of the national income distribution than in municipalities above this threshold. We then show that both poor housing conditions and higher occupational exposure play a key role in this heterogeneity: taken together, these mechanisms account for up to 77% of the difference observed between rich and poor municipalities