Перспективи використання теорії катастроф у дослідженні економічних криз

OBJECTIVE: To assess in-hospital and long-term mortality of Dutch ICU patients admitted with an acute intoxication. DESIGN: Cohort of ICU admissions from a national ICU registry linked to records from an insurance claims database. SETTING: Eighty-one ICUs (85% of all Dutch ICUs). PATIENTS: Seven thousand three hundred thirty-one admissions between January 1, 2008, and October 1, 2011. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier curves were used to compare the unadjusted mortality of the total intoxicated population and for specific intoxication subgroups based on the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV reasons for admission: 1) alcohol(s), 2) analgesics, 3) antidepressants, 4) street drugs, 5) sedatives, 6) poisoning (carbon monoxide, arsenic, or cyanide), 7) other toxins, and 8) combinations. The case-mix adjusted mortality was assessed by the odds ratio adjusted for age, gender, severity of illness, intubation status, recurrent intoxication, and several comorbidities. The ICU mortality was 1.2%, and the in-hospital mortality was 2.1%. The mortality 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after ICU admission was 2.8%, 4.1%, 5.2%, 6.5%, and 9.3%, respectively. Street drugs had the highest mortality 2 years after ICU admission (12.3%); a combination of different intoxications had the lowest (6.3%). The adjusted observed mortality showed that intoxications with street drugs and "other toxins" have a significant higher mortality 1 month after ICU admission (odds ratio adj = 1.63 and odds ratioadj= 1.73, respectively). Intoxications with alcohol or antidepressants have a significant lower mortality 1 month after ICU admission (odds ratioadj = 0.50 and odds ratioadj = 0.46, respectively). These differences were not found in the adjusted mortality 3 months upward of ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the mortality 2 years after ICU admission is relatively low compared with other ICU admissions. The first 3 months after ICU admission there is a difference in mortality between the subgroups, not thereafter. Still, the difference between the in-hospital mortality and the mortality after 2 years is substantial

The need for ICU admission in intoxicated patients : a prediction model

CONTEXT: Intoxicated patients are frequently admitted from the emergency room to the ICU for observational reasons. The question is whether these admissions are indeed necessary. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a model that predicts the need of ICU treatment (receiving mechanical ventilation and/or vasopressors 55 and a GCS <6. Alcohol and "other poisonings" (e.g., carbonmonoxide, arsenic, cyanide) as intoxication type and a systolic blood pressure ≥130 mmHg were indicators that ICU treatment was likely unnecessary. The prediction model had high sensitivity (93.4%) and a high negative predictive value (98.7%). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Clinical use of the prediction model, with a high negative predictive value (98.7%), would result in 34.3% less observational admissions