Earliest Memories and Recent Memories of Highly Salient Events – Are They Similar?

Four- to 11-year-old children were interviewed about two different sorts of memories in the same home visit: recent memories of highly salient and stressful events, namely injuries serious enough to require hospital emergency room treatment, and their earliest memories. Injury memories were scored for amount of unique information, completeness vis à vis a standardized injury prototype, and accuracy while earliest memories were scored for amount of unique information, how old children had been at the time of their earliest memory, and time between their earliest memory and current age. Correlational and regression analyses showed that the two types of memory reports demonstrated considerable similarity in terms of unique information and completeness. Specifically, children with the most informative earliest memories had more informative as well as more complete free recalls of injury events. Such relationships between both sorts of memories suggest similar underlying processes at work when children produce memory reports, even when the length, structure, coherence, and content of those memories is about as divergent as one can imagine

Inventory control for point-of-use locations in hospitals

Most inventory management systems at hospital departments are characterised by lost sales, periodic reviews with short lead times, and limited storage capacity. We develop two types of exact models that deal with all these characteristics. In a capacity model, the service level is maximised subject to a capacity restriction, and in a service model the required capacity is minimised subject to a service level restriction. We also formulate approximation models applicable for any lost-sales inventory system (cost objective, no lead time restrictions etc). For the capacity model, we develop a simple inventory rule to set the reorder levels and order quantities. Numerical results for this inventory rule show an average deviation of 1% from the optimal service levels. We also embed the single-item models in a multi-item system. Furthermore, we compare the performance of fixed order size replenishment policies and (R, s, S) policies

Modeling a teacher in a tutorial-like system using Learning Automata

The goal of this paper is to present a novel approach to model the behavior of a Teacher in a Tutorial- like system. In this model, the Teacher is capable of presenting teaching material from a Socratic-type Domain model via multiple-choice questions. Since this knowledge is stored in the Domain model in chapters with different levels of complexity, the Teacher is able to present learning material of varying degrees of difficulty to the Students. In our model, we propose that the Teacher will be able to assist the Students to learn the more difficult material. In order to achieve this, he provides them with hints that are relative to the difficulty of the learning material presented. This enables the Students to cope with the process of handling more complex knowledge, and to be able to learn it appropriately. To our knowledge, the findings of this study are novel to the field of intelligent adaptation using Learning Automata (LA). The novelty lies in the fact that the learning system has a strategy by which it can deal with increasingly more complex/difficult Environments (or domains from which the learning as to be achieved). In our approach, the convergence of the Student models (represented by LA) is driven not only by the response of the Environment (Teacher), but also by the hints that are provided by the latter. Our proposed Teacher model has been tested against different benchmark Environments, and the results of these simulations have demonstrated the salient aspects of our model. The main conclusion is that Normal and Below-Normal learners benefited significantly from the hints provided by the Teacher, while the benefits to (brilliant) Fast learners were marginal. This seems to be in-line with our subjective understanding of the behavior of real-life Students

Effectiveness and Cost Effectiveness of Expanding Harm Reduction and Antiretroviral Therapy in a Mixed HIV Epidemic: A Modeling Analysis for Ukraine

A cost-effectiveness study by Sabina Alistar and colleagues evaluates the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of different levels of investment in methadone, ART, or both, in the mixed HIV epidemic in Ukraine

Communication Research

Contains reports on five research projects.Rand Corporatio

A review on the relation between simulation and improvement in hospitals

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Simulation applications on operations management in hospitals are frequently published and claim to support decision-making on operations management subjects. However, the reported implementation rates of recommendations are low and the actual impact of the changes recommended by the modeler has hardly been examined. This paper examines: 1) the execution rate of simulation study recommendations, 2) the research methods used to evaluate implementation of recommendations, 3) factors contributing to implementation, and 4) the differences regarding implementation between literature and practice.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Altogether 16 hospitals executed the recommendations (at least partially). Implementation results were hardly reported upon; 1 study described a before-and-after design, 2 a partial before and after design. Factors that help implementation were grouped according to 1) technical quality, of which data availability, validation/verification with historic data/expert opinion, and the development of the conceptual model were mentioned most frequently 2) process quality, with client involvement and 3) outcome quality with, presentation of results. The survey response rate of traceable authors was 61%, 18 authors implemented the results at least partially. Among these responses, evaluation methods were relatively better with 3 time series designs and 2 before-and-after designs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although underreported in literature, implementation of recommendations seems limited; this review provides recommendations on project design, implementation conditions and evaluation methods to increase implementation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A literature review in PubMed and Business Source Elite on stochastic simulation applications on operations management in individual hospitals published between 1997 and 2008. From those reporting implementation, cross references were added. In total, 89 papers were included. A scoring list was used for data extraction. Two reviewers evaluated each paper separately; in case of discrepancies, they jointly determined the scores. The findings were validated with a survey to the original authors.</p

Allocating HIV Prevention Funds in the United States: Recommendations from an Optimization Model

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had an annual budget of approximately $327 million to fund health departments and community-based organizations for core HIV testing and prevention programs domestically between 2001 and 2006. Annual HIV incidence has been relatively stable since the year 2000 [1] and was estimated at 48,600 cases in 2006 and 48,100 in 2009 [2]. Using estimates on HIV incidence, prevalence, prevention program costs and benefits, and current spending, we created an HIV resource allocation model that can generate a mathematically optimal allocation of the Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention’s extramural budget for HIV testing, and counseling and education programs. The model’s data inputs and methods were reviewed by subject matter experts internal and external to the CDC via an extensive validation process. The model projects the HIV epidemic for the United States under different allocation strategies under a fixed budget. Our objective is to support national HIV prevention planning efforts and inform the decision-making process for HIV resource allocation. Model results can be summarized into three main recommendations. First, more funds should be allocated to testing and these should further target men who have sex with men and injecting drug users. Second, counseling and education interventions ought to provide a greater focus on HIV positive persons who are aware of their status. And lastly, interventions should target those at high risk for transmitting or acquiring HIV, rather than lower-risk members of the general population. The main conclusions of the HIV resource allocation model have played a role in the introduction of new programs and provide valuable guidance to target resources and improve the impact of HIV prevention efforts in the United States

Recommendations for increasing the use of HIV/AIDS resource allocation models

The article of record as published may be found at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-9-S1-S8Background: Resource allocation models have not had a substantial impact on HIV/AIDS resource allocation decisions in spite of the important, additional insights they may provide. In this paper, we highlight six difficulties often encountered in attempts to implement such models in policy settings; these are: model complexity, data requirements, multiple stakeholders, funding issues, and political and ethical considerations. We then make recommendations as to how each of these difficulties may be overcome. Results: To ensure that models can inform the actual decision, modellers should understand the environment in which decision-makers operate, including full knowledge of the stakeholders' key issues and requirements. HIV/AIDS resource allocation model formulations should be contextualized and sensitive to societal concerns and decision-makers' realities. Modellers should provide the required education and training materials in order for decision-makers to be reasonably well versed in understanding the capabilities, power and limitations of the model. Conclusion: This paper addresses the issue of knowledge translation from the established resource allocation modelling expertise in the academic realm to that of policymaking

A systematic review to identify areas of enhancements of pandemic simulation models for operational use at provincial and local levels

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years, computer simulation models have supported development of pandemic influenza preparedness policies. However, U.S. policymakers have raised several <it>concerns </it>about the practical use of these models. In this review paper, we examine the extent to which the current literature already addresses these <it>concerns </it>and identify means of enhancing the current models for higher operational use.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We surveyed PubMed and other sources for published research literature on simulation models for influenza pandemic preparedness. We identified 23 models published between 1990 and 2010 that consider single-region (e.g., country, province, city) outbreaks and multi-pronged mitigation strategies. We developed a plan for examination of the literature based on the concerns raised by the policymakers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>While examining the concerns about the adequacy and validity of data, we found that though the epidemiological data supporting the models appears to be adequate, it should be validated through as many updates as possible during an outbreak. Demographical data must improve its interfaces for access, retrieval, and translation into model parameters. Regarding the concern about credibility and validity of modeling assumptions, we found that the models often simplify reality to reduce computational burden. Such simplifications may be permissible if they do not interfere with the performance assessment of the mitigation strategies. We also agreed with the concern that social behavior is inadequately represented in pandemic influenza models. Our review showed that the models consider only a few social-behavioral aspects including contact rates, withdrawal from work or school due to symptoms appearance or to care for sick relatives, and compliance to social distancing, vaccination, and antiviral prophylaxis. The concern about the degree of accessibility of the models is palpable, since we found three models that are currently accessible by the public while other models are seeking public accessibility. Policymakers would prefer models scalable to any population size that can be downloadable and operable in personal computers. But scaling models to larger populations would often require computational needs that cannot be handled with personal computers and laptops. As a limitation, we state that some existing models could not be included in our review due to their limited available documentation discussing the choice of relevant parameter values.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>To adequately address the concerns of the policymakers, we need continuing model enhancements in critical areas including: updating of epidemiological data during a pandemic, smooth handling of large demographical databases, incorporation of a broader spectrum of social-behavioral aspects, updating information for contact patterns, adaptation of recent methodologies for collecting human mobility data, and improvement of computational efficiency and accessibility.</p