SEAM: A Small-Scale Euro Area Model With Forward-Looking Elements

This paper presents a small-scale estimated macro model for the euro area (SEAM) designed primarily to generate forecasts and to evaluate the dynamic response of the economy to unanticipated and anticipated shocks. One crucial feature of SEAM is the presence of forward-looking elements, which makes the model forecasts more robust to the 'Lucas critique', since it allows economic decisions to be moulded by the future impact of 'surprise' policy actions. In what concerns the reliability of the model-simulations, the inclusion of forward-looking behaviour enriches the dynamics of the response of the model's endogenous variables to exogenous shocks. Although the SEAM does not have the richness of full-scale macroeconometric models, as apparent interalia, by the absence of a steady-state analogue and also of some relationships important for a better characterisation of the euro area economy, the model has been shown to deliver reasonable forecasts and responses to shocks that are consistent with conventional wisdom.

The timing and the probability of FDI: an application to the US multinational enterprises

An 'option-pricing' model is employed to analyse when a firm should expand its production capabilities abroad. In a framework where the firm's profits are determined by some average of the attractiveness of the home and foreign countries, and attractiveness in each country follows differentiated Brownian motions, this paper derives an optimal trigger value for FDI. The model shows that, contrary to the NPV rule, FDI entry should be optimally delayed the greater the uncertainty surrounding the future path of attractiveness in both locations. The second part of the paper is devoted to empirically test the results of the model. Drawing on data of FDI from the US into a panel of developed and developing countries and using labour costs as a proxy for (the reciprocal of) attractiveness, our estimation overwhelmingly confirms the results of the model, namely that FDI entry events are negatively related to the uncertainty surrounding attractiveness.Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Enterprises, Option-Pricing Model; Ordered Probit Model for Panel Data.

The Locational Determinants of the U.S. Multinationals Activities

This paper examines empirically a range of theoretical hypotheses about the determinants of FDI location in a panel data regression framework. The results of the estimation of a gravity model lend support to the proximity-concentration and internalisation hypotheses. Also, the fact that FDI has been found to be decreasing in the competition posed by alternative locations is suggestive of the superiority of the share version of the gravity model over its classical formulation. A panel data cointegration-type analysis between FDI and GDP, and per capita income differential suggests that GDP has a positive impact on FDI, but provide mixed evidence as to whether per capita income differential reflects demand or supply determinants of FDI. Causality tests between income, income differential and FDI points to FDI playing a positive role on economic growth and convergence.

The Timing and Probability of FDI: An Application to the United States Multinational Enterprises

An "option-pricing" model is employed to analyse when a firm should expand its production capabilities abroad. In a framework where the firm's profits are determined by some average of the attractiveness of the home and foreign countries, and attractiveness in each country follows differentiated Brownian motions, this paper derives an optimal trigger value for FDI. The model shows that, contrary to the NPV rule, FDI entry should be optimally delayed the greater the uncertainty surrounding the future path of attractiveness in both locations. Another important result is that MNEs do not regard FDI as a risk diversification tool. The second part of the paper is devoted to empirically test the results of the model. Drawing on data of FDI from the US into a panel of developed and developing countries and using labour costs as a proxy for (the reciprocal of) attractiveness, our estimation confirms the results of the model, in particular that FDI entry events are negatively related to the uncertainty surrounding attractiveness.

The Effects of a Technology Shock in the Euro Area

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effects of a technology shock in the euro area within a structural VAR framework. Since the impact of these shocks on labor use is a controversial issue in the related literature, we give particular attention to it. Given that the estimated effects of a technology shock are quite sensible to the low-frequency properties of the labor input measure, we resort to an extensive statistical analysis to investigate whether hours worked are better characterized as stationary or difference stationary. We conduct a battery of classical unit root and stationary tests, analyze the small-sample properties of some of the tests-statistics, explore encompassing tests and Bayesian odds ratios to ascertain if the more appropriate VAR model is the one in which hours per capita enter in levels or first-differences. The evidence gathered is in support of hours being stationary, which leads to the conclusion that per capita hours worked rise after a technology shock in the euro area. As for the responses of the remaining variables, our results are in line with the bulk of the literature.

Efeito de metais pesados na alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata

O impacto dos metais pesados em ambientes aquáticos, incluindo águas residuais, é vulgarmente determinado através de testes de toxicidade. A microalga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata é usada nos métodos de toxicidade recomendados por organismos Internacionais como a EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) e a OCDE (Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Económico). O presente trabalho teve como objectivo avaliar o impacto do cádmio e do zinco no crescimento, na autofluorescência e na actividade metabólica da alga P. subcapitata. Para tal, a alga, em fase exponencial de crescimento, foi inoculada no meio de cultura contendo Cd (150, 500 ou 700 nmol/l) ou Zn (300, 1800 ou 6000 nmol/l). A concentração mais baixa de Cd e Zn não provocou qualquer efeito inibitório. Para uma concentração intermédia de Cd e Zn, observou-se uma redução do crescimento, ao fim de 72 h, de 63 e 50 %, respectivamente. No caso da concentração mais elevada de Cd e de Zn, observou-se uma redução do crescimento, ao fim de 72 h, de 83 e 97 %, respectivamente. A perda de autofluorescência da alga, devido à presença de Cd e de Zn, seguiu um padrão similar ao efeito sobre o crescimento. Resultados preliminares mostraram que a exposição das células de P. subcapitata a 700 nmol/ de Cd, durante 1h, induziu uma inibição da actividade esterásica de 52 %, enquanto que a incubação com 6000 nmol/l de Zn, durante 6 h, provocou uma redução da actividade esterásica de ~ 50 %. Em conclusão, os resultados obtidos mostram que o Cd é mais tóxico que o Zn para a alga P. subcapitata. A perda de autofluorescência, devido à exposição aos metais pesados em estudo, ocorreu segundo um padrão similar ao efeito inibitório sobre o crescimento. O Cd e Zn provocaram uma rápida perda (no espaço de 6 h) da actividade esterásica. Estes resultados sugerem que a avaliação da actividade esterásica da alga P. subcapitata poderá constituir um indicador sensível na avaliação da toxicidade.The impact of heavy metals in aquatic environments, including sewage, is commonly evaluated using toxicity tests. The microalgae Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata is used in the toxicity methods recommended by international agencies, such as EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) or OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). The aim of the present work was to assess the impact of cadmium and zinc on growth, autofluorescence and metabolic activity of the algae P. subcapitata. Thus, the algae, in the exponential phase of growth, was inoculated in culture medium containing Cd (150, 500 or 700 nmol/l) or Zn (300, 1800 or 6000 nmol/l). The lowest concentration of Cd or Zn did not cause any inhibitory growth effect. For an intermediate concentration of Cd and Zn, a reduction of the growth of 63 and 50 %, respectively, was observed after 72 h of growth. In the case of the highest concentration of Cd and Zn, a reduction of growth, after 72 h, of 83 and 97 %, respectively, was observed. The loss of autofluorescence of the algae, due to the presence of Cd and Zn, followed a similar pattern to the effect on growth. Preliminary results showed that exposition of cells of P. subcapitata to 700 nmol Cd, for 1 h, induced an inhibition of esterase activity of 52 %, whereas incubation with 6000 nmol/l Zn, for 6 h, caused a reduction of ~ 50 % of esterase activity. In conclusion, the results show that Cd is more toxic than Zn to the algae P. subcapitata. The loss of autofluorescence, due to exposure to heavy metals, under study, followed a similar pattern to the inhibitory effect on growth. The Cd and Zn caused a rapid loss (within 6 h) of esterase activity. These results suggest that evaluation of the esterase activity of the algae P. subcapitata could be a sensitive indicator for assessing the toxicity