Free Trade Agreements and Volatility of Stock Returns and Exchange Rates: Evidence from NAFTA

This paper uses GARCH models and daily data to investigate the effect of the Canada – U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) and NAFTA on the volatility of, and the relationship between stock market returns and changes in bilateral exchange rates of the member countries. Empirical results indicate that the CUSFTA had a stabilizing effect on the Canadian and U.S. equity markets while increasing the volatility of the CAD/USD exchange rate. NAFTA further reduced the two stock markets’ volatility, however unlike CUSFTA, NAFTA also reduced the volatility of the CAD/USD exchange rate. Additional results indicate that during NAFTA, the Mexican stock market is more volatile than the other stock and bilateral exchange markets. Moreover, the exchange rate of the Mexican peso against both the U.S. and Canadian dollars has been more volatile than the Canadian dollar/US dollar exchange rate. Evidence also suggests that all three stock markets are positively correlated with each other with the U.S. market being much less correlated with the Canadian and Mexican stock markets than the latter two markets are correlated with each other. Evidence found in this paper suggests a negative relationship between the stock and bilateral currency markets that is statistically significant except for the U.S. equity market when paired with an exchange rate that involves the Mexican peso

Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey

The New York-New Jersey region entered a pronounced downturn in 2008, but the pace of decline eased considerably in spring 2009 and then leveled off in July, according to three key Federal Reserve Bank of New York economic indexes. These developments, in conjunction with a growing consensus that the national economy is headed for recovery, suggest that the worst may be over for the region's economy. However, a downsizing of the area's critical finance sector could pose a major risk to the economic outlook going forward--particularly for New York City.Federal Reserve Bank of New York ; Federal Reserve District, 2nd ; Economic conditions ; Economic indicators

400 pc Imaging of a Massive Quasar Host Galaxy at a Redshift of 6.6

We report high spatial resolution (~0.076", 410pc) Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array imaging of the dust continuum and the ionized carbon line [CII] in a luminous quasar host galaxy at z=6.6, 800 million years after the big bang. Based on previous studies, this galaxy hosts a ~1x10^9 M_sun black hole and has a star-formation rate of ~1500 M_sun/yr. The unprecedented high resolution of the observations reveals a complex morphology of gas within 3kpc of the accreting central black hole. The gas has a high velocity dispersion with little ordered motion along the line of sight, as would be expected from gas accretion that has yet to settle in a disk. In addition, we find the presence of [CII] cavities in the gas distribution (with diameters of ~0.5kpc), offset from the central black hole. This unique distribution and kinematics cannot be explained by a simple model. Plausible scenarios are that the gas is located in a truncated or warped disk, or the holes are created by interactions with nearby galaxies or due to energy injection into the gas. In the latter case, the energy required to form the cavities must originate from the central active galactic nucleus, as the required energy far exceeds the energy output expected from supernovae. This energy input into the gas, however, does not inhibit the high rate of star-formation. Both star-formation and black hole activity could have been triggered by interactions with satellite galaxies; our data reveal three additional companions detected in [CII] emission around the quasar.Comment: Published in ApJ Letter

Mapping the Lyman-Alpha Emission Around a z~6.6 QSO with MUSE: Extended Emission and a Companion at Close Separation

We utilize the Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) to search for extended Lyman-Alpha emission around the z~6.6 QSO J0305-3150. After carefully subtracting the point-spread-function, we reach a nominal 5-sigma surface brightness limit of SB = 1.9x10$^{-18}$ erg/s/cm$^2$/arcsec$^2$ over a 1 arcsec$^2$ aperture, collapsing 5 wavelength slices centered at the expected location of the redshifted Lyman-Alpha emission (i.e. at 9256 Ang.). Current data suggest the presence (5-sigma, accounting for systematics) of a Lyman-Alpha nebula that extends for 9 kpc around the QSO. This emission is displaced and redshifted by 155 km/s with respect to the location of the QSO host galaxy traced by the [CII] emission line. The total luminosity is L = 3.0x10$^{42}$ erg/s. Our analysis suggests that this emission is unlikely to rise from optically thick clouds illuminated by the ionizing radiation of the QSO. It is more plausible that the Lyman-Alpha emission is due to fluorescence of the highly ionized optically thin gas. This scenario implies a high hydrogen volume density of n$_H$ ~ 6 cm$^{-3}$. In addition, we detect a Lyman-Alpha emitter (LAE) in the immediate vicinity of the QSO: i.e., with a projected separation of 12.5 kpc and a line-of-sight velocity difference of 560 km/s. The luminosity of the LAE is L = 2.1x10$^{42}$ erg/s and its inferred star-formation-rate is SFR ~ 1.3 M$_\odot$/yr. The probability of finding such a close LAE is one order of magnitude above the expectations based on the QSO-galaxy cross-correlation function. This discovery is in agreement with a scenario where dissipative interactions favour the rapid build-up of super-massive black holes at early Cosmic times.Comment: 17 pages, 15 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

Mapping the Lyman-Alpha Emission Around a z~6.6 QSO with MUSE: Extended Emission and a Companion at Close Separation

We utilize the Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) to search for extended Lyman-Alpha emission around the z~6.6 QSO J0305-3150. After carefully subtracting the point-spread-function, we reach a nominal 5-sigma surface brightness limit of SB = 1.9x10$^{-18}$ erg/s/cm$^2$/arcsec$^2$ over a 1 arcsec$^2$ aperture, collapsing 5 wavelength slices centered at the expected location of the redshifted Lyman-Alpha emission (i.e. at 9256 Ang.). Current data suggest the presence (5-sigma, accounting for systematics) of a Lyman-Alpha nebula that extends for 9 kpc around the QSO. This emission is displaced and redshifted by 155 km/s with respect to the location of the QSO host galaxy traced by the [CII] emission line. The total luminosity is L = 3.0x10$^{42}$ erg/s. Our analysis suggests that this emission is unlikely to rise from optically thick clouds illuminated by the ionizing radiation of the QSO. It is more plausible that the Lyman-Alpha emission is due to fluorescence of the highly ionized optically thin gas. This scenario implies a high hydrogen volume density of n$_H$ ~ 6 cm$^{-3}$. In addition, we detect a Lyman-Alpha emitter (LAE) in the immediate vicinity of the QSO: i.e., with a projected separation of 12.5 kpc and a line-of-sight velocity difference of 560 km/s. The luminosity of the LAE is L = 2.1x10$^{42}$ erg/s and its inferred star-formation-rate is SFR ~ 1.3 M$_\odot$/yr. The probability of finding such a close LAE is one order of magnitude above the expectations based on the QSO-galaxy cross-correlation function. This discovery is in agreement with a scenario where dissipative interactions favour the rapid build-up of super-massive black holes at early Cosmic times.Comment: 17 pages, 15 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

A metal-poor damped Ly-alpha system at redshift 6.4

We identify a strong Ly-alpha damping wing profile in the spectrum of the quasar P183+05 at z=6.4386. Given the detection of several narrow metal absorption lines at z=6.40392, the most likely explanation for the absorption profile is that it is due to a damped Ly-alpha system. However, in order to match the data a contribution of an intergalactic medium 5-38% neutral or additional weaker absorbers near the quasar is also required. The absorption system presented here is the most distant damped Ly-alpha system currently known. We estimate an HI column density ($10^{20.68\pm0.25}\,$cm$^{-2}$), metallicity ([O/H]$=-2.92\pm 0.32$), and relative chemical abundances of a system consistent with a low-mass galaxy during the first Gyr of the universe. This object is among the most metal-poor damped Ly-alpha systems known and, even though it is observed only ~850 Myr after the big bang, its relative abundances do not show signatures of chemical enrichment by Population III stars.Comment: Updated to match published versio

The Discovery of a Gravitationally Lensed Quasar at z = 6.51

Strong gravitational lensing provides a powerful probe of the physical properties of quasars and their host galaxies. A high fraction of the most luminous high-redshift quasars was predicted to be lensed due to magnification bias. However, no multiple imaged quasar was found at z>5 in previous surveys. We report the discovery of J043947.08+163415.7, a strongly lensed quasar at z=6.51, the first such object detected at the epoch of reionization, and the brightest quasar yet known at z>5. High-resolution HST imaging reveals a multiple imaged system with a maximum image separation theta ~ 0.2", best explained by a model of three quasar images lensed by a low luminosity galaxy at z~0.7, with a magnification factor of ~50. The existence of this source suggests that a significant population of strongly lensed, high redshift quasars could have been missed by previous surveys, as standard color selection techniques would fail when the quasar color is contaminated by the lensing galaxy.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, submitted to ApJ

A two-minute walking test with a smartphone app for persons with multiple sclerosis:Validation study

BACKGROUND: Walking disturbances are a common dysfunction in persons with multiple sclerosis (MS). The 2-Minute Walking Test (2MWT) is widely used to quantify walking speed. We implemented a smartphone-based 2MWT (s2MWT) in MS sherpa, an app for persons with MS. When performing the s2MWT, users of the app are instructed to walk as fast as safely possible for 2 minutes in the open air, while the app records their movement and calculates the distance walked. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to investigate the concurrent validity and test-retest reliability of the MS sherpa s2MWT. METHODS: We performed a validation study on 25 persons with relapsing-remitting MS and 79 healthy control (HC) participants. In the HC group, 21 participants were matched to the persons with MS based on age, gender, and education and these followed the same assessment schedule as the persons with MS (the HC-matched group), whereas 58 participants had a less intense assessment schedule to determine reference values (the HC-normative group). Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were determined between the distance measured by the s2MWT and the distance measured using distance markers on the pavement during these s2MWT assessments. ICCs were also determined for test-retest reliability and derived from 10 smartphone tests per study participant, with 3 days in between each test. We interviewed 7 study participants with MS regarding their experiences with the s2MWT. RESULTS: In total, 755 s2MWTs were completed. The adherence rate for the persons with MS and the participants in the HC-matched group was 92.4% (425/460). The calculated distance walked on the s2MWT was, on average, 8.43 m or 5% (SD 18.9 m or 11%) higher than the distance measured using distance markers (n=43). An ICC of 0.817 was found for the concurrent validity of the s2MWT in the combined analysis of persons with MS and HC participants. Average ICCs of 9 test-retest reliability analyses of the s2MWT for persons with MS and the participants in the HC-matched group were 0.648 (SD 0.150) and 0.600 (SD 0.090), respectively, whereas the average ICC of 2 test-retest reliability analyses of the s2MWT for the participants in the HC-normative group was 0.700 (SD 0.029). The interviewed study participants found the s2MWT easy to perform, but they also expressed that the test results can be confronting and that a pressure to reach a certain distance can be experienced. CONCLUSIONS: The high correlation between s2MWT distance and the conventional 2MWT distance indicates a good concurrent validity. Similarly, high correlations underpin a good test-retest reliability of the s2MWT. We conclude that the s2MWT can be used to measure the distance that the persons with MS walk in 2 minutes outdoors near their home, from which both clinical studies and clinical practice can benefit

The Discovery of A Luminous Broad Absorption Line Quasar at A Redshift of 7.02

Despite extensive efforts, only two quasars have been found at $z>7$ to date due to a combination of low spatial density and high contamination from more ubiquitous Galactic cool dwarfs in quasar selection. This limits our current knowledge of the super-massive black hole (SMBH) growth mechanism and reionization history. In this letter, we report the discovery of a luminous quasar at $z=7.021$, DELS J003836.10$-$152723.6 (hereafter J0038$-$1527), selected using photometric data from DESI Legacy imaging Survey (DELS), Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) imaging Survey, as well as Wide-field Infrared Survey Explore ($WISE$) mid-infrared all-sky survey. With an absolute magnitude of $M_{1450}$=$-$27.1 and bolometric luminosity of $L_{\rm Bol}$=5.6$\times$10$^{13}$ $L_\odot$, J0038$-$1527 is the most luminous quasar known at $z>7$. Deep optical to near infrared spectroscopic observations suggest that J0038-1527 hosts a 1.3 billion solar mass BH accreting at the Eddington limit, with an Eddington ratio of 1.25$\pm$0.19. The CIV broad emission line of J0038$-$1527 is blue-shifted by more than 3000 km s$^{-1}$ to the systemic redshift. More detailed investigations of the high quality spectra reveal three extremely high velocity CIV broad absorption lines (BALs) with velocity from 0.08 to 0.14 times the speed of light and total balnicity index of more than 5000 km s$^{-1}$, suggesting the presence of relativistic outflows. J0038$-$1527 is the first quasar found at the epoch of reionization (EoR) with such strong outflows and provides a unique laboratory to investigate AGN feedback on the formation and growth of the most massive galaxies in the early universe.Comment: ApJL in pres