Quelques perspectives de développement de l’étude empirique des conflits internationaux

The empirical study of international conflicts has in the last two decades undergone a remarkable development. Careful examination of results so far obtained can however only produce feelings of dissatisfaction. The few correlations uncovered are usually so limited in scope that it is difficult to draw any conclusions whatsoever from them. This essay first of all suggests certain possible developments for empirical research, especially in areas which have been most neglected. The author goes on to show that the road on which such works are embarked, no matter how interesting, contains radical limits which can only invalidate the claims of practitioners of the empirical analysis of international conflicts to an elaboration of a truly explanatory theory. It will only be possible to discover explanatory elements if one undertakes a theoretical leap consisting in reorienting the study of international conflicts. The broad outlines of such a theoretical reorientation are described in the last part of the essay

La difficile quête d'un système de sécurité en Europe : les limites de l'approche institutionnelle

With the end of the cold war, Europe, whilst avoiding the major threat of a global conflagration, has entered a period of uncertainty and instability, resulting from new risks which have appeared and from conflicts which have developed to the east of the continent. The institutions which were created in the context of the cold war, and which helped to manage it, are now forced to redefine their objectives and strategies, since they were not suited to deal with a profoundly different situation. This study evaluates the manner in which these new security challenges have been addressed through adaptation of the various institutions active in the field of security. The study shows that these various adaptations have been incapable of bringing effective answers to the new security problems which have appeared on the continent. Finally, based on this analysis, the study tries to identify the potential and limits of each of these institutions in the search for a European security System

Réflexion sur la prévision en relations internationales

In the study of international relations, as indeed in all of the social sciences, reflections about the future are becoming increasingly numerous. They indicate frequently moreover a desire for systemization through recourse to rigourous techniques and procedures: the Delphi technique, the construction of scenarios, Systems analysis, operations research, decision matrices, graph theory, game theory, etc. This leads us to conclude often that the forecasting approach in international relations is undergoing a major quantitative and qualitative evolution.We seek to show however in this analysis that, contrary to appearances, forecasting research in international relations is characterized above all today by great epistemological weakness and by a remarkable incoherence, and that it is not therefore, for the most part, equal to its pretensions. We will attempt to determine why this is the case and if this situation is likely to change. In doing so, we will seek to identify both the possibilities and the limits of forecasting in this field

Morphogenesis of the Sarine canyon in the Plateau Molasse, Switzerland: new data from an archaeological site

The 50 to 100 metre deep canyon of the Sarine River that develops north of the prealpine front in the Molasse Plateau is classically attributed to postglacial erosion. However, the discovery of a Mesolithic archaeological site (~ 8600 years cal. BP), located at the bottom of the gorge five metres above the actual river bed, has evident implications for the canyons morphogenesis. This new chronological datum indicates that most of the canyon was already formed 8600 years ago, and that only five metres of Molasse have eroded since that time. This implies a dramatically high erosion rate during Late Glacial to early Holocene times 0.9 to 1.48 cm/ year) and, consequently, a very low erosion rate since the Atlantic period approximately 0.06 cm/ year). These new archaeological and geological findings offer exciting perspectives for Quaternary research