Validation of a Parkinson disease predictive model in a population-based study

Parkinson disease (PD) has a relatively long prodromal period that may permit early identification to reduce diagnostic testing for other conditions when patients are simply presenting with early PD symptoms, as well as to reduce morbidity from fall-related trauma. Earlier identification also could prove critical to the development of neuroprotective therapies. We previously developed a PD predictive model using demographic and Medicare claims data in a population-based case-control study. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) indicated good performance. We sought to further validate this PD predictive model. In a randomly selected, population-based cohort of 115,492 Medicare beneficiaries aged 66–90 and without PD in 2009, we applied the predictive model to claims data from the prior five years to estimate the probability of future PD diagnosis. During five years of follow-up, we used 2010–2014 Medicare data to determine PD and vital status and then Cox regression to investigate whether PD probability at baseline was associated with time to PD diagnosis. Within a nested case-control sample, we calculated the AUC, sensitivity, and specificity. A total of 2,326 beneficiaries developed PD. Probability of PD was associated with time to PD diagnosis (p<0.001, hazard ratio = 13.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 10.6–17.3 for the highest vs. lowest decile of probability). The AUC was 83.3% (95% CI 82.5%–84.1%). At the cut point that balanced sensitivity and specificity, sensitivity was 76.7% and specificity was 76.2%. In an independent sample of additional Medicare beneficiaries, we again applied the model and observed good performance (AUC = 82.2%, 95% CI 81.1%–83.3%). Administrative claims data can facilitate PD identification within Medicare and Medicare-aged samples

Immunosuppressants and risk of Parkinson disease

We performed a population-based case-control study of United States Medicare beneficiaries age 60-90 in 2009 with prescription data (48,295 incident Parkinson disease cases and 52,324 controls) to examine the risk of Parkinson disease in relation to use of immunosuppressants. Inosine monophosphate dehydrogenase inhibitors (relative risk = 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.51-0.79) and corticosteroids (relative risk = 0.80; 95% confidence interval 0.77-0.83) were both associated with a lower risk of Parkinson disease. Inverse associations for both remained after applying a 12-month exposure lag. Overall, this study provides evidence that use of corticosteroids and inosine monophosphate dehydrogenase inhibitors might lower the risk of Parkinson disease

Sensitivity and specificity of the finger tapping task for the detection of psychogenic movement disorders

Psychogenic movement disorders (PMD) represent a diagnostically challenging group of patients in movement disorders. Finger tapping tests (FTT) have been used in neuropsychiatric evaluations to identify psychogenic conditions, but their use in movement disorders has been limited to the quantification of upper extremity disability in idiopathic Parkinson disease (IPD). We evaluated the ability of the FTT to objectively identify PMD by screening 195 individuals from a movement disorder clinic with IPD, dystonia, essential tremor, or PMD and compared them to 130 normal adults. All subjects performed six-30 second trials using alternate hands. We compared mean FTT score and the coefficient of variation between diagnostic groups. FTT scores in IPD were inversely correlated with Hoehn and Yahr stage (p < .001) and the United Parkinson Disease Rating Scale III (motor) subscale (p < .001). FTT scores were significantly lower in PMD (mean = 41.72) when compared to the other diagnostic groups after controlling for age. The coefficient of variation was not significantly different between diagnostic groups. ROC analysis identified a cutoff FTT ratio of 0.670 or less was 89.1% specific and 76.9% sensitive for the diagnosis of PMD. We conclude the FTT can provide supportive evidence for the diagnosis of PMD

A rapid motor task-based screening tool for parkinsonism in community-based studies

The prevalence of parkinsonism in developing countries is largely unknown due to difficulty in ascertainment because access to neurologists is often limited. Develop and validate a parkinsonism screening tool using objective motor task-based tests that can be administered by non-clinicians. In a cross-sectional population-based sample from South Africa, we evaluated 315 adults, age \u3e40, from an Mn-exposed (smelter) community, using the Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale motor subsection 3 (UPDRS3), Purdue grooved pegboard, and kinematic-UPDRS3-based motor tasks. In 275 participants (training dataset), we constructed a linear regression model to predict UPDRS3. We selected motor task summary measures independently associated with UPDRS3 ( \u3c 0.05). We validated the model internally in the remaining 40 participants from the manganese-exposed community (test dataset) using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and externally in another population-based sample of 90 participants from another South African community with only background levels of environmental Mn exposure. The mean UPDRS3 score in participants from the Mn-exposed community was 9.1 in both the training and test datasets (standard deviation = 6.4 and 6.1, respectively). Together, 57 (18.1%) participants in this community had a UPDRS3 ≥ 15, including three with Parkinson\u27s disease. In the non-exposed community, the mean UPDRS3 was 3.9 (standard deviation = 4.3). Three (3.3%) had a UPDRS3 ≥ 15. Grooved pegboard time and mean velocity for hand rotation and finger tapping tasks were strongly associated with UPDRS3. Using these motor task summary measures and age, the UPDRS3 predictive model performed very well. In the test dataset, AUCs were 0.81 (95% CI 0.68, 0.94) and 0.91 (95% CI 0.81, 1.00) for cut points for neurologist-assessed UPDRS3 ≥ 10 and UPDRS3 ≥ 15, respectively. In the external validation dataset, the AUC was 0.85 (95% CI 0.73, 0.97) for UPDRS3 ≥ 10. AUCs were 0.76-0.82 when excluding age. A predictive model based on a series of objective motor tasks performs very well in assessing severity of parkinsonism in both Mn-exposed and non-exposed population-based cohorts

Validation of Parkinson\u27s disease-related questionnaires in South Africa

Background: There are very few epidemiological studies investigating Parkinson\u27s disease (PD) in Africa. The hundreds of local languages and dialects make traditional screening and clinical evaluation tools difficult to use. Objective: The objective of the study was to validate two commonly used PD questionnaires in an African population. Methods: The PD Screening Questionnaire (PDSQ) and Parkinson\u27s Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39) were modified and translated into Afrikaans, Setswana, and isiZulu and administered to a sample of healthy local residents. We assessed the internal consistencies and cluster characteristics of the questionnaires, using a Cronbach\u27s alpha test and exploratory factor analysis. The questionnaires were then administered to a population-based sample of 416 research participants. We evaluated the correlations between the questionnaires and both a timed motor task and the Unified Parkinson\u27s Disease Rating Scale motor subsection 3 (UPDRS3), using locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOWESS) regression analysis and Spearman\u27s rank correlation. Results: Both questionnaires had high overall internal consistency (Cronbach\u27s alpha = 0.86 and 0.95, respectively). The modified PDQ-39 had evidence of five subscales, with Factor 1 explaining 57% and Factor 2 explaining 14%, of the variance in responses. The PDSQ and PDQ-39 scores were correlated with the UPDRS3 score ( Conclusion: The translated PDSQ and PDQ-39 questionnaires demonstrated high internal consistency and correlations with clinical severity of parkinsonism and a timed motor task, suggesting that they are valid tools for field-based epidemiological studies

A comparison of prediction approaches for identifying prodromal Parkinson disease

Identifying people with Parkinson disease during the prodromal period, including via algorithms in administrative claims data, is an important research and clinical priority. We sought to improve upon an existing penalized logistic regression model, based on diagnosis and procedure codes, by adding prescription medication data or using machine learning. Using Medicare Part D beneficiaries age 66-90 from a population-based case-control study of incident Parkinson disease, we fit a penalized logistic regression both with and without Part D data. We also built a predictive algorithm using a random forest classifier for comparison. In a combined approach, we introduced the probability of Parkinson disease from the random forest, as a predictor in the penalized regression model. We calculated the receiver operator characteristic area under the curve (AUC) for each model. All models performed well, with AUCs ranging from 0.824 (simplest model) to 0.835 (combined approach). We conclude that medication data and random forests improve Parkinson disease prediction, but are not essential

A fixed-dose randomized controlled trial of olanzapine for psychosis in Parkinson disease

Background: Psychosis is a common and debilitating side effect of long-term dopaminergic treatment of Parkinson disease (PD). While clozapine is an effective treatment, the need for blood monitoring has limited its first-line use.  Objective: Since olanzapine shows similar receptor affinity to clozapine, we hypothesized that it might be an effective alternative to clozapine for treatment of drug-induced psychosis (DIP) in PD, and that lower doses than usual might make it tolerable. Methods: In 1998-2003 we conducted a four-week, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group, fixed-dose trial of olanzapine (0, 2.5mg, or 5mg) in 23 PD patients with DIP while allowing for clinically realistic dose adjustments of dopaminomimetic mid-study. The primary outcome measures were Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) ratings scored from videotaped interviews after study termination by an observer blinded to dose assignment and to interview timing, and CGI (Clinical Global Impression). The Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale motor subscale (UPDRS) was the primary measure of tolerability. Results: Intention-to-treat analysis found no significant differences among treatment groups in study completion or serious adverse events. However, a disproportionate number of olanzapine vs. placebo subjects reported mild side effects (p<0.04), many citing motor worsening. Fourteen patients completed the study (seven on placebo, two on 2.5mg olanzapine, five on 5mg olanzapine). In study completers, analysis by repeated measures ANOVA revealed no significant difference between olanzapine and placebo groups in BPRS psychosis reduction (p=0.536), parkinsonism (p=0.608), or any other measured parameters (CGI, MMSE, Beck Depression Inventory, Hamilton Depression score, PDQ‑39, Schwab-England ADL assessment, and sleep scores). Conclusion: This study adds to other evidence that olanzapine is ineffective in treating medication-induced psychosis in Parkinson disease

Relative mortality in U.S. Medicare beneficiaries with Parkinson disease and hip and pelvic fractures

BACKGROUND: Parkinson disease is a neurodegenerative disease that affects gait and postural stability, resulting in an increased risk of falling. The purpose of this study was to estimate mortality associated with demographic factors after hip or pelvic (hip/pelvic) fracture in people with Parkinson disease. A secondary goal was to compare the mortality associated with Parkinson disease to that associated with other common medical conditions in patients with hip/pelvic fracture. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational cohort study of 1,980,401 elderly Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with hip/pelvic fracture from 2000 to 2005 who were identified with use of the Beneficiary Annual Summary File. The race/ethnicity distribution of the sample was white (93.2%), black (3.8%), Hispanic (1.2%), and Asian (0.6%). Individuals with Parkinson disease (131,215) were identified with use of outpatient and carrier claims. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of death associated with demographic and clinical variables and to compare mortality after hip/pelvic fracture between patients with Parkinson disease and those with other medical conditions associated with high mortality after hip/pelvic fracture, after adjustment for race/ethnicity, sex, age, and modified Charlson comorbidity score. RESULTS: Among those with Parkinson disease, women had lower mortality after hip/pelvic fracture than men (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]) = 0.62 to 0.64), after adjustment for covariates. Compared with whites, blacks had a higher (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.09 to 1.16) and Hispanics had a lower (HR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.81 to 0.95) mortality, after adjustment for covariates. Overall, the adjusted mortality rate after hip/pelvic fracture in individuals with Parkinson disease (HR = 2.41, 95% CI = 2.37 to 2.46) was substantially elevated compared with those without the disease, a finding similar to the increased mortality associated with a diagnosis of dementia (HR = 2.73, 95% CI = 2.68 to 2.79), kidney disease (HR = 2.66, 95% CI = 2.60 to 2.72), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR = 2.48, 95% CI = 2.43 to 2.53). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality after hip/pelvic fracture in Parkinson disease varies according to demographic factors. Mortality after hip/pelvic fracture is substantially increased among those with Parkinson disease. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence

Severity of parkinsonism associated with environmental manganese exposure

BACKGROUND: Exposure to occupational manganese (Mn) is associated with neurotoxic brain injury, manifesting primarily as parkinsonism. The association between environmental Mn exposure and parkinsonism is unclear. To characterize the association between environmental Mn exposure and parkinsonism, we performed population-based sampling of residents older than 40 in Meyerton, South Africa (N = 621) in residential settlements adjacent to a large Mn smelter and in a comparable non-exposed settlement in Ethembalethu, South Africa (N = 95) in 2016-2020. METHODS: A movement disorders specialist examined all participants using the Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale motor subsection part 3 (UPDRS3). Participants also completed an accelerometry-based kinematic test and a grooved pegboard test. We compared performance on the UPDRS3, grooved pegboard, and the accelerometry-based kinematic test between the settlements using linear regression, adjusting for covariates. We also measured airborne PM RESULTS: Mean PM CONCLUSIONS: Environmental airborne Mn exposures at levels substantially lower than current occupational exposure thresholds in the United States may be associated with clinical parkinsonism