Dynamic Risk Prediction of 30-Day Mortality in Patients With Advanced Lung Cancer:Comparing Five Machine Learning Approaches

International audiencePURPOSE Administering systemic anticancer treatment (SACT) to patients near death can negatively affect their health-related quality of life. Late SACT administrations should be avoided in these cases. Machine learning techniques could be used to build decision support tools leveraging registry data for clinicians to limit late SACT administration. MATERIALS AND METHODS Patients with advanced lung cancer who were treated at the Department of Oncology, Aalborg University Hospital and died between 2010 and 2019 were included (N = 2,368). Diagnoses, treatments, biochemical data, and histopathologic results were used to train predictive models of 30-day mortality using logistic regression with elastic net penalty, random forest, gradient tree boosting, multilayer perceptron, and long short-term memory network. The importance of the variables and the clinical utility of the models were evaluated. RESULTS The random forest and gradient tree boosting models outperformed other models, whereas the artificial neural network–based models underperformed. Adding summary variables had a modest effect on performance with an increase in average precision from 0.500 to 0.505 and from 0.498 to 0.509 for the gradient tree boosting and random forest models, respectively. Biochemical results alone contained most of the information with a limited degradation of the performances when fitting models with only these variables. The utility analysis showed that by applying a simple threshold to the predicted risk of 30-day mortality, 40% of late SACT administrations could have been prevented at the cost of 2% of patients stopping their treatment 90 days before death. CONCLUSION This study demonstrates the potential of a decision support tool to limit late SACT administration in patients with cancer. Further work is warranted to refine the model, build an easy-to-use prototype, and conduct a prospective validation study

Development of a Precision Medicine Workflow in Hematological Cancers, Aalborg University Hospital, Denmark

Within recent years, many precision cancer medicine initiatives have been developed. Most of these have focused on solid cancers, while the potential of precision medicine for patients with hematological malignancies, especially in the relapse situation, are less elucidated. Here, we present a demographic unbiased and observational prospective study at Aalborg University Hospital Denmark, referral site for 10% of the Danish population. We developed a hematological precision medicine workflow based on sequencing analysis of whole exome tumor DNA and RNA. All steps involved are outlined in detail, illustrating how the developed workflow can provide relevant molecular information to multidisciplinary teams. A group of 174 hematological patients with progressive disease or relapse was included in a non-interventional and population-based study, of which 92 patient samples were sequenced. Based on analysis of small nucleotide variants, copy number variants, and fusion transcripts, we found variants with potential and strong clinical relevance in 62% and 9.5% of the patients, respectively. The most frequently mutated genes in individual disease entities were in concordance with previous studies. We did not find tumor mutational burden or micro satellite instability to be informative in our hematologic patient cohort

A RT-qPCR system using a degenerate probe for specific identification and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variants of concern

Fast surveillance strategies are needed to control the spread of new emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants and gain time for evaluation of their pathogenic potential. This was essential for the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) that replaced the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) and is currently the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant circulating worldwide. RT-qPCR strategies complement whole genome sequencing, especially in resource lean countries, but mutations in the targeting primer and probe sequences of new emerging variants can lead to a failure of the existing RT-qPCRs. Here, we introduced an RT-qPCR platform for detecting the Delta- and the Omicron variant simultaneously using a degenerate probe targeting the key ΔH69/V70 mutation in the spike protein. By inclusion of the L452R mutation into the RT-qPCR platform, we could detect not only the Delta and the Omicron variants, but also the Omicron sub-lineages BA.1, BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5. The RT-qPCR platform was validated in small- and large-scale. It can easily be incorporated for continued monitoring of Omicron sub-lineages, and offers a fast adaption strategy of existing RT-qPCRs to detect new emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants using degenerate probes.</p

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for cattle stature identifies common genes that regulate body size in mammals

peer-reviewedH.D.D., A.J.C., P.J.B. and B.J.H. would like to acknowledge the Dairy Futures Cooperative Research Centre for funding. H.P. and R.F. acknowledge funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the AgroClustEr ‘Synbreed—Synergistic Plant and Animal Breeding’ (grant 0315527B). H.P., R.F., R.E. and K.-U.G. acknowledge the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Süddeutscher Rinderzüchter, the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Österreichischer Fleckviehzüchter and ZuchtData EDV Dienstleistungen for providing genotype data. A. Bagnato acknowledges the European Union (EU) Collaborative Project LowInputBreeds (grant agreement 222623) for providing Brown Swiss genotypes. Braunvieh Schweiz is acknowledged for providing Brown Swiss phenotypes. H.P. and R.F. acknowledge the German Holstein Association (DHV) and the Confederación de Asociaciones de Frisona Española (CONCAFE) for sharing genotype data. H.P. was financially supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) (grant PA 2789/1-1). D.B. and D.C.P. acknowledge funding from the Research Stimulus Fund (11/S/112) and Science Foundation Ireland (14/IA/2576). M.S. and F.S.S. acknowledge the Canadian Dairy Network (CDN) for providing the Holstein genotypes. P.S. acknowledges funding from the Genome Canada project entitled ‘Whole Genome Selection through Genome Wide Imputation in Beef Cattle’ and acknowledges WestGrid and Compute/Calcul Canada for providing computing resources. J.F.T. was supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, US Department of Agriculture, under awards 2013-68004-20364 and 2015-67015-23183. A. Bagnato, F.P., M.D. and J.W. acknowledge EU Collaborative Project Quantomics (grant 516 agreement 222664) for providing Brown Swiss and Finnish Ayrshire sequences and genotypes. A.C.B. and R.F.V. acknowledge funding from the public–private partnership ‘Breed4Food’ (code BO-22.04-011- 001-ASG-LR) and EU FP7 IRSES SEQSEL (grant 317697). A.C.B. and R.F.V. acknowledge CRV (Arnhem, the Netherlands) for providing data on Dutch and New Zealand Holstein and Jersey bulls.Stature is affected by many polymorphisms of small effect in humans1. In contrast, variation in dogs, even within breeds, has been suggested to be largely due to variants in a small number of genes2,3. Here we use data from cattle to compare the genetic architecture of stature to those in humans and dogs. We conducted a meta-analysis for stature using 58,265 cattle from 17 populations with 25.4 million imputed whole-genome sequence variants. Results showed that the genetic architecture of stature in cattle is similar to that in humans, as the lead variants in 163 significantly associated genomic regions (P < 5 × 10−8) explained at most 13.8% of the phenotypic variance. Most of these variants were noncoding, including variants that were also expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) and in ChIP–seq peaks. There was significant overlap in loci for stature with humans and dogs, suggesting that a set of common genes regulates body size in mammals

One size fits all?:Direct evidence for the heterogeneity of genetic drift throughout the genome

Effective population size (Ne) is a central parameter in population and conservation genetics. It measures the magnitude of genetic drift, rates of accumulation of inbreeding in a population, and it conditions the efficacy of selection. It is often assumed that a single Ne can account for the evolution of genomes. However, recent work provides indirect evidence for heterogeneity in Ne throughout the genome. We study this by examining genome-wide diversity in the Danish Holstein cattle breed. Using the differences in allele frequencies over a single generation, we directly estimated Ne among autosomes and smaller windows within autosomes. We found statistically significant variation in Ne at both scales. However, no correlation was found between the detected regional variability in Ne, and proxies for the intensity of linked selection (local recombination rate, gene density), or the presence of either past strong selection or current artificial selection on traits of economic value. Our findings call for further caution regarding the wide applicability of the Ne concept for understanding quantitatively processes such as genetic drift and accumulation of consanguinity in both natural and managed populations