371 research outputs found

    A Numerical Relativity Waveform Surrogate Model for Generically Precessing Binary Black Hole Mergers

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    A generic, non-eccentric binary black hole (BBH) system emits gravitational waves (GWs) that are completely described by 7 intrinsic parameters: the black hole spin vectors and the ratio of their masses. Simulating a BBH coalescence by solving Einstein's equations numerically is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of computing resources for a single set of parameter values. Since theoretical predictions of the GWs are often needed for many different source parameters, a fast and accurate model is essential. We present the first surrogate model for GWs from the coalescence of BBHs including all 77 dimensions of the intrinsic non-eccentric parameter space. The surrogate model, which we call NRSur7dq2, is built from the results of 744744 numerical relativity simulations. NRSur7dq2 covers spin magnitudes up to 0.80.8 and mass ratios up to 22, includes all 4\ell \leq 4 modes, begins about 2020 orbits before merger, and can be evaluated in  50ms\sim~50\,\mathrm{ms}. We find the largest NRSur7dq2 errors to be comparable to the largest errors in the numerical relativity simulations, and more than an order of magnitude smaller than the errors of other waveform models. Our model, and more broadly the methods developed here, will enable studies that would otherwise require millions of numerical relativity waveforms, such as parameter inference and tests of general relativity with GW observations.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures; Added report numbe

    The Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Statistically Corrected Operative Risk Evaluation (AAA SCORE) for predicting mortality after open and endovascular interventions

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    BackgroundAccurate adjustment of surgical outcome data for risk is vital in an era of surgeon-level reporting. Current risk prediction models for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair are suboptimal. We aimed to develop a reliable risk model for in-hospital mortality after intervention for AAA, using rigorous contemporary statistical techniques to handle missing data.MethodsUsing data collected during a 15-month period in the United Kingdom National Vascular Database, we applied multiple imputation methodology together with stepwise model selection to generate preoperative and perioperative models of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair, using two thirds of the available data. Model performance was then assessed on the remaining third of the data by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and compared with existing risk prediction models. Model calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis.ResultsA total of 8088 AAA repair operations were recorded in the National Vascular Database during the study period, of which 5870 (72.6%) were elective procedures. Both preoperative and perioperative models showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .89 and .92, respectively. This was significantly better than any of the existing models (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for best comparator model, .84 and .88; P < .001 and P = .001, respectively). Discrimination remained excellent when only elective procedures were considered. There was no evidence of miscalibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis.ConclusionsWe have developed accurate models to assess risk of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair. These models were carefully developed with rigorous statistical methodology and significantly outperform existing methods for both elective cases and overall AAA mortality. These models will be invaluable for both preoperative patient counseling and accurate risk adjustment of published outcome data

    Doxycycline inhibits elastin degradation and reduces metalloproteinase activity in a model of aneurysmal disease

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    AbstractPurpose: Abdominal aortic aneurysms are characterized by degradation of the extracellular matrix, with a reduction in the elastin concentration of the arterial media. These changes are mediated by increased levels of endogenous metalloproteinases (MMPs) within the aorta, which provide a potential therapeutic target for pharmacologic agents aimed at reducing the growth rate of small aneurysms. In this study, the ability of doxycycline—an MMP inhibitor—to reduce matrix degradation was assessed in a previously described model of aneurysmal disease that used a brief pulse of elastase to induce MMP production and elastin degradation in arterial organ cultures. Methods: Porcine aortic segments (n = 8) were preincubated in exogenous pancreatic elastase for 24 hours before culture in standard conditions for 13 days with both 1 and 10 mg/L doxycycline. Control segments were cultured both without doxycycline and without elastase. At the termination of culture, MMPs were extracted from the tissue and quantified by a combination of substrate gel enzymography and immunoblotting. The volume fractions of elastin and collagen were determined by stereologic analysis of sections stained with Miller's elastin and van Gieson's stain. Results: Stereologic analysis demonstrated a significant preservation of elastin in aorta treated with doxycycline 10 mg/L (p < 0.001) and demonstrated that this preservation was accompanied by a significant reduction in MMP-9 activity (p < 0.02). Immunoblotting for tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases (TIMP-1 and TIMP-2) showed no decreased production in the doxycycline-treated groups. Conclusions: Therapeutic ranges of doxycycline significantly inhibited elastin degradation and MMP-9 production within aortic organ cultures. These data suggest that doxycycline may have a potential application in reducing the growth rates of small abdominal aortic aneurysms. (J Vasc Surg 1998;27:354-61.
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