Push it to the limit: Local Group constraints on high-redshift stellar mass functions for Mstar > 10^5 Msun

We constrain the evolution of the galaxy stellar mass function from 2 < z < 5 for galaxies with stellar masses as low as 10^5 Msun by combining star formation histories of Milky Way satellite galaxies derived from deep Hubble Space Telescope observations with merger trees from the ELVIS suite of N-body simulations. This approach extends our understanding more than two orders of magnitude lower in stellar mass than is currently possible by direct imaging. We find the faint end slopes of the mass functions to be alpha= -1.42(+0.07/-0.05) at z = 2 and alpha = -1.57^(+0.06/-0.06) at z = 5, and show the slope only weakly evolves from z = 5 to z = 0. Our findings are in stark contrast to a number of direct detection studies that suggest slopes as steep as alpha = -1.9 at these epochs. Such a steep slope would result in an order of magnitude too many luminous Milky Way satellites in a mass regime that is observationally complete (Mstar > 2*10^5 Msun at z = 0). The most recent studies from ZFOURGE and CANDELS also suggest flatter faint end slopes that are consistent with our results, but with a lower degree of precision. This work illustrates the strong connections between low and high-z observations when viewed through the lens of LCDM numerical simulations

Near-Field Limits on the Role of Faint Galaxies in Cosmic Reionization

Reionizing the Universe with galaxies appears to require significant star formation in low-mass halos at early times, while local dwarf galaxy counts tell us that star formation has been minimal in small halos around us today. Using simple models and the ELVIS simulation suite, we show that reionization scenarios requiring appreciable star formation in halos with $M_{\rm vir} \approx 10^{8}\,M_{\odot}$ at $z=8$ are in serious tension with galaxy counts in the Local Group. This tension originates from the seemingly inescapable conclusion that 30 - 60 halos with $M_{\rm vir} > 10^{8}\,M_{\odot}$ at $z=8$ will survive to be distinct bound satellites of the Milky Way at $z = 0$. Reionization models requiring star formation in such halos will produce dozens of bound galaxies in the Milky Way's virial volume today (and 100 - 200 throughout the Local Group), each with $\gtrsim 10^{5}\,M_{\odot}$ of old stars ($\gtrsim 13$ Gyr). This exceeds the stellar mass function of classical Milky Way satellites today, even without allowing for the (significant) post-reionization star formation observed in these galaxies. One possible implication of these findings is that star formation became sharply inefficient in halos smaller than $\sim 10^9 \,M_{\odot}$ at early times, implying that the high-$z$ luminosity function must break at magnitudes brighter than is often assumed (at ${\rm M_{UV}} \approx -14$). Our results suggest that JWST (and possibly even HST with the Frontier Fields) may realistically detect the faintest galaxies that drive reionization. It remains to be seen how these results can be reconciled with the most sophisticated simulations of early galaxy formation at present, which predict substantial star formation in $M_{\rm vir} \sim 10^8 \, M_{\odot}$ halos during the epoch of reionization.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures; minor updates. Published in MNRAS Letter

Through a Smoother Lens: An expected absence of LCDM substructure detections from hydrodynamic and dark matter only simulations

A fundamental prediction of the cold dark matter cosmology is the existence of a large number of dark subhalos around galaxies, most of which should be entirely devoid of stars. Confirming the existence of dark substructures stands among the most important empirical challenges in modern cosmology: if they are found and quantified with the mass spectrum expected, then this would close the door on a vast array of competing theories. But in order for observational programs of this kind to reach fruition, we need robust predictions. Here we explore substructure predictions for lensing using galaxy lens-like hosts at z=0.2 from the Illustris simulations both in full hydrodynamics and dark matter only. We quantify substructures more massive than ~ 10^9 M_sun, comparable to current lensing detections derived from HST, Keck, and ALMA. The addition of full hydrodynamics reduces the overall subhalo mass function by about a factor of two. Even for the dark matter only runs, most (~ 85%) lines of sight through projected cylinders of size close to an Einstein radius contain no substructures larger than 10^9 M_sun. The fraction of empty sight lines rises to ~ 95% in full physics simulations. This suggests we will likely need hundreds of strong lensing systems suitable for substructure studies, as well as predictions that include the effects of baryon physics on substructure, to properly constrain cosmological models. Fortunately, the field is poised to fulfill these requirements.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figure

On the stark difference in satellite distributions around the Milky Way and Andromeda

We compare spherically-averaged radial number counts of bright (> 10^5 Lsun) dwarf satellite galaxies within 400 kpc of the Milky Way (MW) and M31 and find that the MW satellites are much more centrally concentrated. Remarkably, the two satellite systems are almost identical within the central 100 kpc, while M31 satellites outnumber MW satellites by about a factor of four at deprojected distances spanning 100 - 400 kpc. We compare the observed distributions to those predicted for LCDM suhbalos using a suite of 44 high-resolution ~10^12 halo zoom simulations, 22 of which are in pairs like the MW and M31. We find that the radial distribution of satellites around M31 is fairly typical of those predicted for subhalos, while the Milky Way's distribution is more centrally concentrated that any of our simulated LCDM halos. One possible explanation is that our census is bright (> 10^5 Lsun) MW dwarf galaxies is significantly incomplete beyond ~ 100 kpc of the Sun. If there were ~8 - 20 more bright dwarfs orbiting undetected at 100 - 400 kpc, then the Milky Way's radial distribution would fall within the range expected from subhalo distributions and alos look very much like the known M31 system. We use our simulations to demonstrate that there is enough area left unexplored by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and its extensions that the discovery of ~10 new bright dwarfs is not implausible given the expected range of angular anisotropy of subhalos in the sky.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, submitted to MNRA

Organized Chaos: Scatter in the relation between stellar mass and halo mass in small galaxies

We use Local Group galaxy counts together with the ELVIS N-body simulations to explore the relationship between the scatter and slope in the stellar mass vs. halo mass relation at low masses, $M_\star \simeq 10^5 - 10^8 M_\odot$. Assuming models with log-normal scatter about a median relation of the form $M_\star \propto M_\mathrm{halo}^\alpha$, the preferred log-slope steepens from $\alpha \simeq 1.8$ in the limit of zero scatter to $\alpha \simeq 2.6$ in the case of $2$ dex of scatter in $M_\star$ at fixed halo mass. We provide fitting functions for the best-fit relations as a function of scatter, including cases where the relation becomes increasingly stochastic with decreasing mass. We show that if the scatter at fixed halo mass is large enough ($\gtrsim 1$ dex) and if the median relation is steep enough ($\alpha \gtrsim 2$), then the "too-big-to-fail" problem seen in the Local Group can be self-consistently eliminated in about $\sim 5-10\%$ of realizations. This scenario requires that the most massive subhalos host unobservable ultra-faint dwarfs fairly often; we discuss potentially observable signatures of these systems. Finally, we compare our derived constraints to recent high-resolution simulations of dwarf galaxy formation in the literature. Though simulation-to-simulation scatter in $M_\star$ at fixed $M_\mathrm{halo}$ is large among separate authors ($\sim 2$ dex), individual codes produce relations with much less scatter and usually give relations that would over-produce local galaxy counts.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication into MNRA

The Local Group: The Ultimate Deep Field

Near-field cosmology -- using detailed observations of the Local Group and its environs to study wide-ranging questions in galaxy formation and dark matter physics -- has become a mature and rich field over the past decade. There are lingering concerns, however, that the relatively small size of the present-day Local Group ($\sim 2$ Mpc diameter) imposes insurmountable sample-variance uncertainties, limiting its broader utility. We consider the region spanned by the Local Group's progenitors at earlier times and show that it reaches $3' \approx 7$ co-moving Mpc in linear size (a volume of $\approx 350\,{\rm Mpc}^3$) at $z=7$. This size at early cosmic epochs is large enough to be representative in terms of the matter density and counts of dark matter halos with $M_{\rm vir}(z=7) \lesssim 2\times 10^{9}\,M_{\odot}$. The Local Group's stellar fossil record traces the cosmic evolution of galaxies with $10^{3} \lesssim M_{\star}(z=0) / M_{\odot} \lesssim 10^{9}$ (reaching $M_{1500} > -9$ at $z\sim7$) over a region that is comparable to or larger than the Hubble Ultra-Deep Field (HUDF) for the entire history of the Universe. It is highly complementary to the HUDF, as it probes much fainter galaxies but does not contain the intrinsically rarer, brighter sources that are detectable in the HUDF. Archaeological studies in the Local Group also provide the ability to trace the evolution of individual galaxies across time as opposed to evaluating statistical connections between temporally distinct populations. In the JWST era, resolved stellar populations will probe regions larger than the HUDF and any deep JWST fields, further enhancing the value of near-field cosmology.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures; MNRAS Letters, in pres