Public Transport Route Optimisation Methodology in South Africa

During the last few decades public transport demand patterns in South African metropolitan areas have changed considerably due to market forces such as urban decentralisation and informal settlement on the urban fringes. Public transport services did not respond to these changing demand patterns in an optimal way and great potential exists to optimise the route network of bus and minibus taxi services. In view of changing demand patterns and the need for metropolitan authorities to develop an integrated multi-modal public transport plan in terms of the new National Land Transport Bill, three authorities applied a public transport route optimisation model to assist in the optimisation of bus and taxi route networks. The DHV Route Optimisation model, developed in the Netherlands, was transferred to South Africa for these studies. The model determines the most optimal set of road based routes, subject to resource constraints, by minimising the total travel time and number of transfers between routes. The paper defines the need for route optimisation in South Africa, describes the DHV model and adjustments made to suit South African conditions, and presents the main results of the route optimisation studies conducted in the Greater Pretoria, Khayalami and Port Elizabeth metropolitan areas. Finally, recommendations are made regarding the route optimisation methodology to be adopted in South Africa in view of lessons learned from the three applications.Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies. Faculty of Economics and Business. The University of Sydne

The Ctf18 RFC-like complex positions yeast telomeres but does not specify their replication time

Peer reviewedPreprin

Anomaly and a QCD-like phase diagram with massive bosonic baryons

We study a strongly coupled $Z_2$ lattice gauge theory with two flavors of quarks, invariant under an exact $\mathrm{SU}(2)\times \mathrm{SU}(2) \times \mathrm{U}_A(1) \times \mathrm{U}_B(1)$ symmetry which is the same as QCD with two flavors of quarks without an anomaly. The model also contains a coupling that can be used to break the $\mathrm{U}_A(1)$ symmetry and thus mimic the QCD anomaly. At low temperatures $T$ and small baryon chemical potential $\mu_B$ the model contains massless pions and massive bosonic baryons similar to QCD with an even number of colors. In this work we study the $T-\mu_B$ phase diagram of the model and show that it contains three phases : (1) A chirally broken phase at low $T$ and $\mu_B$, (2) a chirally symmetric baryon superfluid phase at low $T$ and high $\mu_B$, and (3) a symmetric phase at high $T$. We find that the nature of the finite temperature chiral phase transition and in particular the location of the tricritical point that seperates the first order line from the second order line is affected significantly by the anomaly.Comment: 22 pages, 16 figures, 5 tables, references adde

Low Serum Glutathione Peroxidase Activity Is Associated with Increased Cardiovascular Mortality in Individuals with Low HDLc’s

Background Since oxidized LDL is thought to initiate atherosclerosis and the serum glutathione peroxidase (GPx3) reduces oxidized lipids, we investigated whether high GPx3 activity reduces cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Methods We determined GPx3 in stored samples from the Minnesota Heart Survey of 130 participants who after 5 to 12 years of follow-up had died of CVD and 240 controls. Participants were 26 to 85 years old and predominantly white. In a nested case-control, study we performed logistic regressions to calculate odds ratios (OR) adjusted for age, sex, baseline year, body mass index, smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity, total and HDL cholesterols, systolic blood pressure, serum glucose and gamma glutamyltransferase (GTT) activity. The referent was the quartile with the highest GPx3 activity (quartile 4). Results OR’s for CVD mortality for increasing quartiles of GPx3 were 2.37, 2.14, 1.83 and 1.00 (P for trend 0.02). This inverse correlation was confined to those with HDLc’s below the median (P for interaction, 0.006). The OR’s for increasing quartiles of GPx3 in this group were 6.08, 5.00, 3.64 and 1.00 (P for trend, 0.002). Conclusions Individuals with both low HDLc and GPx3 activity are at markedly increased risk for death from CVD

Design of Experiments for Screening

The aim of this paper is to review methods of designing screening experiments, ranging from designs originally developed for physical experiments to those especially tailored to experiments on numerical models. The strengths and weaknesses of the various designs for screening variables in numerical models are discussed. First, classes of factorial designs for experiments to estimate main effects and interactions through a linear statistical model are described, specifically regular and nonregular fractional factorial designs, supersaturated designs and systematic fractional replicate designs. Generic issues of aliasing, bias and cancellation of factorial effects are discussed. Second, group screening experiments are considered including factorial group screening and sequential bifurcation. Third, random sampling plans are discussed including Latin hypercube sampling and sampling plans to estimate elementary effects. Fourth, a variety of modelling methods commonly employed with screening designs are briefly described. Finally, a novel study demonstrates six screening methods on two frequently-used exemplars, and their performances are compared

Internet-based treatment for adults with depressive symptoms: the protocol of a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Depression is a highly prevalent condition, affecting more than 15% of the adult population at least once in their lives. Guided self-help is effective in the treatment of depression. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of two Internet-based guided self-help treatments with adults reporting elevated depressive symptoms. Other research questions concern the identification of potential mediators and the search for subgroups who respond differently to the interventions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study is a randomized controlled trial with three conditions: two treatment conditions and one waiting list control group. The two treatment conditions are Internet-based cognitive behavior therapy and Internet-based problem-solving therapy. They consist of 8 and 5 weekly lessons respectively. Both interventions are combined with support by e-mail. Participants in the waiting list control group receive the intervention three months later.</p> <p>The study population consists of adults from the general population. They are recruited through advertisements in local and national newspapers and through banners on the Internet. Subjects with symptoms of depression (≥ 16 on the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale) are included. Other inclusion criteria are having sufficient knowledge of the Dutch language, access to the Internet and an e-mail address.</p> <p>Primary outcome is depressive symptoms. Secondary outcomes are anxiety, quality of life, dysfunctional cognitions, worrying, problem solving skills, mastery, absence at work and use of healthcare. We will examine the following variables as potential mediators: dysfunctional cognitions, problem solving skills, worrying, anxiety and mastery. Potential moderating variables are: socio-demographic characteristics and symptom severity. Data are collected at baseline and at 5 weeks, 8 weeks, 12 weeks and 9 months after baseline. Analyses will be conducted on the intention-to-treat sample.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study evaluates two Internet-based treatments for depression, namely cognitive behavioral therapy and problem-solving therapy. The effectiveness of Internet-based problem-solving therapy suggest that this may be a worthwhile alternative to other more intensive treatment options. Strengths and limitations of this study are discussed.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16823487</p

CITES, wild plants, and opportunities for crime

The illegal trade in endangered plants damages both the environment and local communities by threatening and destroying numerous species and important natural resources. There is very little research which systematically addresses this issue by identifying specific opportunities for crime. This article presents the results of an interdisciplinary study which brings together criminological and conservation science expertise to identify criminal opportunities in the illegal wild plant trade and suggest strategies in order to prevent and mitigate the problem. Methodologically, the study adapts a crime proofing of legislation approach to the UN Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora and is based on documentary and interview data. Situational crime prevention is used as a framework to provide points for effective intervention

Implementation of Internet-based preventive interventions for depression and anxiety: role of support? The design of a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Internet-based self-help is an effective preventive intervention for highly prevalent disorders, such as depression and anxiety. It is not clear, however, whether it is necessary to offer these interventions with professional support or if they work without any guidance. In case support is necessary, it is not clear which level of support is needed. This study examines whether an internet-based self-help intervention with a coach is more effective than the same intervention without a coach in terms of clinical outcomes, drop-out and economic costs. Moreover, we will investigate which level of support by a coach is more effective compared to other levels of support.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this randomized controlled trial, a total of 500 subjects (18 year and older) from the general population with mild to moderate depression and/or anxiety will be assigned to one of five conditions: (1) web-based problem solving through the internet (self-examination therapy) without a coach; (2) the same as 1, but with the possibility to ask help from a coach on the initiative of the respondent (on demand, by email); (3) the same as 1, but with weekly scheduled contacts initiated by a coach (once per week, by email); (4) weekly scheduled contacts initiated by a coach, but no web-based intervention; (5) information only (through the internet). The interventions will consist of five weekly lessons. Primary outcome measures are symptoms of depression and anxiety. Secondary outcome measures are drop-out from the intervention, quality of life, and economic costs. Other secondary outcome measures that may predict outcome are also studied, e.g. client satisfaction and problem-solving skills. Measures are taken at baseline (pre-test), directly after the intervention (post-test, five weeks after baseline), 3 months later, and 12 months later. Analysis will be conducted on the intention-to-treat sample.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study aims to provide more insight into the clinical effectiveness, differences in drop-out rate and costs between interventions with and without support, and in particular different levels of support. This is important to know in relation to the dissemination of internet-based self-help interventions.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Nederlands Trial Register (NTR): TC1355</p