Field validation of habitat suitability models for vulnerable marine ecosystems in the South Pacific Ocean:Implications for the use of broad-scale models in fisheries management

AbstractManagement of human activities which impact the seafloor in the deep ocean is becoming increasingly important as bottom trawling and exploration for minerals, oil, and gas continue to extend into regions where fragile ecosystems containing habitat-forming deep-sea corals and sponges may be found. Spatial management of these vulnerable marine ecosystems requires accurate knowledge of their distribution. Predictive habitat suitability modelling, using species presence data and a suite of environmental predictor variables, has emerged as a useful tool for inferring distributions outside of known areas. However, validation of model predictions is typically performed with non-independent data. In this study, we describe the results of habitat suitability models constructed for four deep-sea reef-forming coral species across a large region of the South Pacific Ocean using MaxEnt and Boosted Regression Tree modelling approaches. In order to validate model predictions we conducted a photographic survey on a set of seamounts in an un-sampled area east of New Zealand. The likelihood of habitat suitable for reef-forming corals on these seamounts was predicted to be variable, but very high in some regions, particularly where levels of aragonite saturation, dissolved oxygen, and particulate organic carbon were optimal. However, the observed frequency of coral occurrence in analyses of survey photographic data was much lower than expected, and patterns of observed versus predicted coral distribution were not highly correlated. The poor performance of these broad-scale models is attributed to lack of recorded species absences to inform the models, low precision of global bathymetry models, and lack of data on the geomorphology and substrate of the seamounts at scales appropriate to the modelled taxa. This demonstrates the need to use caution when interpreting and applying broad-scale, presence-only model results for fisheries management and conservation planning in data poor areas of the deep sea. Future improvements in the predictive performance of broad-scale models will rely on the continued advancement in modelling of environmental predictor variables, refinements in modelling approaches to deal with missing or biased inputs, and incorporation of true absence data

Correction to: Effectiveness of a new model of primary care management on knee pain and function in patients with knee osteoarthritis: Protocol for THE PARTNER STUDY

After the publication of this protocol [1], our collaborator Prima Health solutions advised us of their intent to withdraw from the study. Their primary role was to provide remotely delivered weight-loss services (via the Healthy Weight for Life program) to eligible participants in the intervention group. These services were partly provided as in-kind and partly funded through the study. We have received ethical approval from the University of Sydney to replace the Healthy Weight for Life program with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's (CSIRO) Total Wellbeing Diet. The amended weight loss advice and support paragraph of the manuscript is outlined below. All changes to the protocol were made and approved before starting the trial and were prospectively changed on our trial registration (ACT RN12617001595303). Amended weight loss advice and support paragraph: If the patient has a BMI =27 kg/m2, the patient will be offered the option of participating in the remotelydelivered weight loss program. The Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's (CSIRO) "Total Wellbeing Diet" is based on an evidence-based weight management strategy that utilises a structured, nutritionally balanced eating plan designed to be incorporated into a balanced lifestyle program [2, 3]. The program is a 12- week, low glycaemic index, high protein, healthy eating program with online support and tracking tools, meal plans and educational resources on a healthy diet. It is delivered by SP Health (http://www.sphealth.com/) on behalf of the CSIRO. After completion of the 12-week program, patients may elect to continue the basic program for an additional 12-weeks. Patients who elect to undertake the online weight-loss program will continue to be supported by the PARTNER Care Support Team throughout their time on the weight-loss program. This program will be undertaken in conjunction with the PARTNER exercise program and educational resources on healthy lifestyle change.

Addressing overtreatment of screen detected DCIS; the LORIS trial

Abstract Overdiagnosis, and thus overtreatment, are inevitable consequences of most screening programmes; identification of ways of minimising the impact of overdiagnosis demands new prospective research, in particular the need to separate clinically relevant lesions that require active treatment from those that can be safely left alone or monitored and only need treated if they change characteristics. Breast cancer screening has led to a large increase in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) diagnoses. This is a widely heterogeneous disease and most DCIS detected through screening is of high cytonuclear grade and therefore likely to be important clinically. However, the historic practice of surgical treatment for all DCIS is unlikely to be optimal for lower risk patients. A clearer understanding of how to manage DCIS is required. This article describes the background and development of ‘The low risk’ DCIS trial (LORIS), a phase III trial of surgery versus active monitoring. LORIS will determine if it is appropriate to manage women with screen detected or asymptomatic, low grade and intermediate grade DCIS with low grade features, by active monitoring rather than by surgical treatment

HDAC9 is implicated in atherosclerotic aortic calcification and affects vascular smooth muscle cell phenotype.

Aortic calcification is an important independent predictor of future cardiovascular events. We performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis to determine SNPs associated with the extent of abdominal aortic calcification (n = 9,417) or descending thoracic aortic calcification (n = 8,422). Two genetic loci, HDAC9 and RAP1GAP, were associated with abdominal aortic calcification at a genome-wide level (P < 5.0 × 10-8). No SNPs were associated with thoracic aortic calcification at the genome-wide threshold. Increased expression of HDAC9 in human aortic smooth muscle cells promoted calcification and reduced contractility, while inhibition of HDAC9 in human aortic smooth muscle cells inhibited calcification and enhanced cell contractility. In matrix Gla protein-deficient mice, a model of human vascular calcification, mice lacking HDAC9 had a 40% reduction in aortic calcification and improved survival. This translational genomic study identifies the first genetic risk locus associated with calcification of the abdominal aorta and describes a previously unknown role for HDAC9 in the development of vascular calcification

Seroprevalence of HHV-8, CMV, and EBV among the general population in Ghana, West Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8), cytomegalovirus (CMV) and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) are prevalent in Africa, but less common elsewhere and the modes of transmission are still subject to debate. Generally, they rarely cause disease in the immunocompetent host but are highly oncogenic when associated with immunosuppression. Although the high prevalence of HHV-8, CMV and EBV has been well documented in Africa, such data are sparse from Ghana.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Serum samples from 3275 HIV-seronegative healthy blood donors and 250 HIV-AIDS patients were tested for antibodies specific for HHV-8, CMV and EBV by IgG ELISA assays. Differences in seropositivity rates by gender and age were evaluated using the Chi-square test with Yates correction.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 3275 HIV-seronegative healthy blood donors tested, 2573 (78.6%) were males and 702 (21.4%) were females, with ages ranging from 18 to 65 years (median 32.6; mean 31.2; mode 30). Of the 250 HIV-AIDS patients tested, 140 (56%) were males and 110 (44%) were females, with ages ranging from 17 to 64 years (median 30.8; mean 30.3; mode 28). Among the HIV-seronegative healthy blood donors, overall seroprevalence of HHV-8, CMV and EBV was 23.7%, 77.6% and 20.0%, respectively. Among the HIV-AIDS patients, overall seroprevalence of HHV-8, CMV and EBV was 65.6%, 59.2% and 87.2%, respectively. The seroprevalence of HHV-8 (p < 0.005) and EBV (p < 0.001) was statistically significantly higher in HIV-AIDS patients compared to HIV-seronegative healthy blood donors. There was no statistically significant difference (p = 0.24) between CMV seroprevalence in HIV-AIDS patients and HIV-seronegative healthy blood donors. Age and gender were not independent determinants (p > 0.05) for all three infections among HIV-seronegative healthy blood donors and HIV-AIDS patients in Ghana.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results presented herein indicate that HHV-8, CMV and EBV infections are hyperendemic in both HIV-seronegative and HIV-seropositive Ghanaians, and suggest primarily a horizontal route of transmission of these three viral infections in Ghana.</p