Vaccination against Foot-and-mouth disease : do initial conditions affect its benefit?

When facing incursion of a major livestock infectious disease, the decision to implement a vaccination programme is made at the national level. To make this decision, governments must consider whether the benefits of vaccination are sufficient to outweigh potential additional costs, including further trade restrictions that may be imposed due to the implementation of vaccination. However, little consensus exists on the factors triggering its implementation on the field. This work explores the effect of several triggers in the implementation of a reactive vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease. In particular, we tested whether changes in the location of the incursion and the delay of implementation would affect the epidemiological benefit of such a policy in the context of Scotland. To reach this goal, we used a spatial, premises-based model that has been extensively used to investigate the effectiveness of mitigation procedures in Great Britain. The results show that the decision to vaccinate, or not, is not straightforward and strongly depends on the underlying local structure of the population-at-risk. With regards to disease incursion preparedness, simply identifying areas of highest population density may not capture all complexities that may influence the spread of disease as well as the benefit of implementing vaccination. However, if a decision to vaccinate is made, we show that delaying its implementation in the field may markedly reduce its benefit. This work provides guidelines to support policy makers in their decision to implement, or not, a vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of infectious livestock disease

Association of influenza epidemics with global climate variability

The reasons for the seasonality and annual changes in the impact of influenza epidemics remain poorly understood. We investigated the covariations between a major component of climate, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and indicators of the impact of influenza, as measured by morbidity, excess mortality and viral subtypes collected in France during the period 1971–2002. We show that both the circulating subtype and the magnitude of ENSO are associated with the impact of influenza epidemics. Recognition of this association could lead to better understanding of the mechanisms of emergence of influenza epidemics.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42662/1/10654_2004_Article_DO00002450.pd

Early Mechanical Alterations in Phospholamban Mutation Carriers: Identifying Subclinical Disease Before Onset of Symptoms

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore echocardiographic characteristics of phospholamban (PLN) p.Arg14del mutation carriers to investigate whether structural and/or functional abnormalities could be identified before onset of symptoms. BACKGROUND: Carriers of the genetic PLN p.Arg14del mutation may develop arrhythmogenic and/or dilated cardiomyopathy. Overt disease is preceded by a pre-symptomatic phase of variable length in which disease expression seems to be absent. METHODS: PLN p.Arg14del mutation carriers with an available echocardiogram were included. Mutation carriers were classified as pre-symptomatic if they had no history of ventricular arrhythmias (VAs), a premature ventricular complex count of <500/24 h, and a left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction of ≥45%. In addition, we included 70 control subjects with similar age and sex distribution as the pre-symptomatic mutation carriers. Comprehensive echocardiographic analysis (including deformation imaging) was performed. RESULTS: The final study population consisted of 281 PLN p.Arg14del mutation carriers, 139 of whom were classified as pre-symptomatic. In comparison to control subjects, pre-symptomatic mutation carriers had lower global longitudinal strain and higher LV mechanical dispersion (both p < 0.001). In addition, post-systolic shortening (PSS) in the LV apex was observed in 43 pre-symptomatic mutation carriers (31%) and in none of the control subjects. During a median follow-up of 3.2 years (interquartile range: 2.1 to 5.6 years) in 104 pre-symptomatic mutation carriers, nonsustained VA occurred in 13 (13%). Presence of apical PSS was the strongest echocardiographic predictor of VA (multivariable hazards ratio: 5.11; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.37 to 19.08; p = 0.015), which resulted in a negative predictive value of 96% (95% CI: 89% to 98%) and a positive predictive value of 29% (95% CI: 21% to 40%). CONCLUSIONS: Global and regional LV mechanical alterations in PLN p.Arg14del mutation carriers precede arrhythmic symptoms and overt structural disease. Pre-symptomatic mutation carriers with normal deformation patterns in the apex are at low risk of developing VA within 3 years, whereas mutation carriers with apical PSS appear to be at higher risk

Local population and regional environmental drivers of cholera in Bangladesh

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Regional environmental factors have been shown to be related to cholera. Previous work in Bangladesh found that temporal patterns of cholera are positively related to satellite-derived environmental variables including ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This paper investigates whether local socio-economic status (SES) modifies the effect of regional environmental forces. The study area is Matlab, Bangladesh, an area of approximately 200,000 people with an active health and demographic surveillance system. Study data include (1) spatially-referenced demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the population; (2) satellite-derived variables for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), and OCC; and (3) laboratory confirmed cholera case data for the entire population. Relationships between cholera, the environmental variables, and SES are measured using generalized estimating equations with a logit link function. Additionally two separate seasonal models are built because there are two annual cholera epidemics, one pre-monsoon, and one post-monsoon.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>SES has a significant impact on cholera occurrence: the higher the SES score, the lower the occurrence of cholera. There is a significant negative association between cholera incidence and SSH during the pre-monsoon period but not for the post-monsoon period. OCC is positively associated with cholera during the pre-monsoon period but not for the post-monsoon period. SST is not related to cholera incidence.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Overall, it appears cholera is influenced by regional environmental variables during the pre-monsoon period and by local-level variables (e.g., water and sanitation) during the post-monsoon period. In both pre- and post-monsoon seasons, SES significantly influences these patterns, likely because it is a proxy for poor water quality and sanitation in poorer households.</p

Letter processing and font information during reading: beyond distinctiveness, where vision meets design

Letter identification is a critical front end of the reading process. In general, conceptualizations of the identification process have emphasized arbitrary sets of distinctive features. However, a richer view of letter processing incorporates principles from the field of type design, including an emphasis on uniformities across letters within a font. The importance of uniformities is supported by a small body of research indicating that consistency of font increases letter identification efficiency. We review design concepts and the relevant literature, with the goal of stimulating further thinking about letter processing during reading

Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics

In many infectious diseases, an unknown fraction of infections produce symptoms mild enough to go unrecorded, a fact that can seriously compromise the interpretation of epidemiological records. This is true for cholera, a pandemic bacterial disease, where estimates of the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic infections have ranged from 3 to 100 (refs 1-5). In the absence of direct evidence, understanding of fundamental aspects of cholera transmission, immunology and control has been based on assumptions about this ratio and about the immunological consequences of inapparent infections. Here we show that a model incorporating high asymptomatic ratio and rapidly waning immunity, with infection both from human and environmental sources, explains 50 yr of mortality data from 26 districts of Bengal, the pathogen's endemic home. We find that the asymptomatic ratio in cholera is far higher than had been previously supposed and that the immunity derived from mild infections wanes much more rapidly than earlier analyses have indicated. We find, too, that the environmental reservoir(5,6) (free-living pathogen) is directly responsible for relatively few infections but that it may be critical to the disease's endemicity. Our results demonstrate that inapparent infections can hold the key to interpreting the patterns of disease outbreaks. New statistical methods(7), which allow rigorous maximum likelihood inference based on dynamical models incorporating multiple sources and outcomes of infection, seasonality, process noise, hidden variables and measurement error, make it possible to test more precise hypotheses and obtain unexpected results. Our experience suggests that the confrontation of time-series data with mechanistic models is likely to revise our understanding of the ecology of many infectious diseases.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62519/1/nature07084.pd

Vulnerability of the British swine industry to classical swine fever

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a notifiable, highly contagious viral disease of swine which results in severe welfare and economic consequences in affected countries. To improve preparedness, it is critical to have some understanding of how CSF would spread should it be introduced. Based on the data recorded during the 2000 epidemic of CSF in Great Britain (GB), a spatially explicit, premises-based model was developed to explore the risk of CSF spread in GB. We found that large outbreaks of CSF would be rare and generated from a limited number of areas in GB. Despite the consistently low vulnerability of the British swine industry to large CSF outbreaks, we identified concerns with respect to the role played by the non-commercial sector of the industry. The model further revealed how various epidemiological features may influence the spread of CSF in GB, highlighting the importance of between-farm biosecurity in preventing widespread dissemination of the virus. Knowledge of factors affecting the risk of spread are key components for surveillance planning and resource allocation, and this work provides a valuable stepping stone in guiding policy on CSF surveillance and control in GB