A multicriteria analysis of stated preferences among freight transport alternatives

Stated preferences data can be of different types: choice data, rankings or ratings. In all cases, these data can be used in different ways as inputs of econometric discrete choice models. This allows to estimate the weights of the different attributes characterizing an alternative. For freight transport, an alternative's attributes would be, for example, reliability, safety, frequency, etc., besides time and cost. Depending on the data sample, number of alternatives and number of attributes, it is possible to proceed to an analysis of individual data or of aggregated data. In case one is interested to analyze individual behaviors in depth, the option exists to rely on some kind of multicriteria analysis for deriving individual utility functions (actually, decision functions) rather than on a classic discrete choice model. Such a procedure also can be useful for deriving individual utilities as input in a hybrid model combining individual utilities with group data. Such a multicriteria approach is envisaged in the context of a stated preference experiment that is currently applied to freight shippers in Belgium. The data in this case are rankings of alternatives, and there is multicritera method that is particularly well adapted for such data: the UTA models developed by Jacquet-Lagrèze and Siskos. It is based on the specification of an additive utility made of non-linear partial utility functions that are piecewise linear. This allows the convenient set-up of a linear goal programming problem which estimates all the functions and their weights. The paper intends to present the ranking experiment, and to use some of the preliminary interviews to illustrate this UTA methodology. Also, it will be shown how it can be used to derive equivalent money values for each attributes on the basis of the cost attribute, and how to distinguish valuations in terms of willingness to pay and willingness to accept a compensation.

Prediction of distortion during cooling of steel rolled rings using thermal-mechanical-metallurgical finite element model

peer reviewedThis work takes place in the framework of a CRAFT European project gathering three universities, three companies who produce rings through the ring rolling process and a manufacturer of temperature and dimension measurement devices. The final goal of the project is to develop and set up a system, integrated in the industrial process, capable of predicting the geometrical characteristics of final pieces just after the ring rolling stage and to allow the rolling process to avoid dimensional defects through online adaption. In fact, ring rolling production does not imply only the rolling process, but also the cooling and quench stages of steel rings. During all these phases, the dimensions of the pieces change dramatically. In particular, due to the lack of symmetry in the cooling conditions, ring distortions include contraction and rotation of the ring section. The modeling of the cooling phase requires taking into account a large number of phenomena resulting from the coupling of thermal, mechanical and metallurgical effects. A numerical model has been implemented in the non-linear finite element code LAGAMINE, developed by the University of Liège. Such a model can help to better understand the evolution of the geometry during the cooling phase and also the effects of each physical and microstructural parameter implemented in the model on the ring final shape. Effectively, several parameters can affect the ring distortions and the model should take them into account; in particular, the mechanical and thermal behavior of each phase present in the material (metastable austenite, ferrite, pearlite, bainite and martensite). Phase transformation modeling implies the integration of a wide data base of material properties (thermo-physical and mechanical properties of the phases, TTT and CCT diagrams, enthalpy and strain of phase transformation, strain of transformation plasticity…) but only a few of these data are available in literature. Some of them have been found for the reference material (42CrMo4 steel), but additional laboratory experiments have been performed at the Universities of Padua and Liège in order to characterize thermal, mechanical and plastic behaviour of phases. Finally, this paper presents the model validation on an industrial case (measurements of temperature and dimensions of rings have been provided by the manufacturer). Then, some applications are presented, demonstrating the importance of some factors such as some material properties, the shape of the rings, the type of cooling (and the cooling rate) or the symmetry of the cooling scheme on final ring distortion

Comparison of residual stresses on long rolled profiles measured by X-ray diffraction,ring core and the sectioning methods and simulated by FE method

Sheet piles are produced by hot rolling, a cooling step and, if required, by a straightening operation. Numerical simulations indicate that the stress field is almost homogeneous through the thickness, justifying the comparison of X-ray diffraction, ring core and the sectioning methods applied after the cooling step and after the straightening process. The equipment, the steps of the experimental procedures and the results are detailed, showing the limits, the specificities and the advantages of each method. Moreover, the amplitude and the distribution of the stresses along the width of the sections present good agreement with results of numerical simulations

EORTC (30885) randomised phase III study with recombinant interferon alpha and recombinant interferon alpha and gamma in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma. The EORTC Genitourinary Group.

In the treatment of renal cell carcinoma both complete (CRs) and partial remissions (PRs) have been obtained using recombinant (r) interferon alpha (IFN-alpha), with response rates ranging from 0 to 31% (mean 16%). rIFN-gamma is a potent immunostimulating agent, but the clinical experience of its use is limited and results are conflicting. In a phase II study with the combination of rIFN-alpha 2c (Boehringer Ingelheim) and rIFN-gamma (Genentech, supplied by Boehringer Ingelheim) in 31 eligible patients, a response rate of 25% was recorded. Based on this observation a randomised phase III study was initiated to investigate the possible advantage of the addition rIFN-gamma to rIFN-alpha 2c treatment. Treatment consisted of rIFN-alpha 2c 30 micrograms m-2 = 10 x 10(6) IU m-2 s.c. twice weekly in arm A and the same dose of rIFN-alpha combined with rIFN-gamma 100 micrograms m-2 = 2 x 10(6) IU m-2 in arm B. Eligibility criteria included documented progression of disease; patients with bone lesions only and overt central nervous system metastases were excluded. Between November 1988 and September 1990, 102 patients were entered into the study. An interim analysis showed a response in 7/53 (13%) patients (two CRs and five PRs) in the rIFN-alpha 2c monotherapy arm and in 2/45 (4%) (one CR and one PR) patients in the combination arm. This difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.17). The probability of missing an eventual 10% advantage for the combination is 0.001. The numbers are insufficient to rule out a negative effect of the addition of rIFN-gamma. The dose intensity of IFN-alpha 2c for the two treatment arms was the same. The addition of rIFN-gamma does not improve the response rate of rIFN-alpha 2c monotherapy. A possible detrimental effect cannot be excluded

Effect of FEM choices in the modelling of incremental forming of aluminium sheets

peer reviewedThis paper investigates the process of single point incremental forming of an aluminium cone with a 50-degree wall angle. Finite element (FE) models are established to simulate the process. Different FE packages have been used. Various aspects associated with the numerical choices as well as the material and process parameters have been studied. The final geometry and the reaction forces are presented as the results of the simulations. Comparison between the simulation results and the experimental data is also made

Forming limit predictions for single-point incremental sheet metal forming

peer reviewedA characteristic of incremental sheet metal forming is that much higher deformations can be achieved than conventional forming limits. In this paper it is investigated to which extent the highly non-monotonic strain paths during such a process may be responsible for this high formability. A Marciniak-Kuczynski (MK) model is used to predict the onset of necking of a sheet subjected to the strain paths obtained by finite-element simulations. The predicted forming limits are considerably higher than for monotonic loading, but still lower than the experimental ones. This discrepancy is attributed to the strain gradient over the sheet thickness, which is not taken into account in the currently used MK model

Development of a 2.5D Representative Volume Element model of AlSi10Mg material produced by additive manufacturing

peer reviewe