Price and Wealth Dynamics in a Speculative Market with Generic Procedurally Rational Traders

An agent-based model of a simple financial market with arbitrary number of traders having relatively general behavioral specifications is analyzed. In a pure exchange economy with two assets, riskless and risky, trading takes place in discrete time under endogenous price formation setting. Traders' demands for the risky asset are expressed as fractions of their individual wealths, so that the dynamical system in terms of wealth and return is obtained. Agents' choices, i.e. investment fractions, are described by means of the generic smooth functions of an infinite information set. The choices can be consistent with (but not limited to) the solutions of the expected utility maximization problems. A complete characterization of equilibria is given. It is shown that irrespectively of the number of agents and of their behavior, all possible equilibria belong to a one-dimensional "Equilibrium Market Line". This geometric tool helps to illustrate possibility of different phenomena, like multiple equilibria, and also can be used for comparative static analysis. The stability conditions of equilibria are derived for general model specification and allow to discuss the relative performances of different strategies and the selection principle governing market dynamics.

House Prices and Home Ownership: a Cohort Analysis

England has very volatile house prices. We use pseudo-panel data spanning multiple house-price cycles over nearly forty years, to assess the extent to which house prices affect access to homeownership by age thirty, and whether differences in ownership rates persist. We find that ownership rates at age thirty have varied substantially, with this variation significantly related to prices. Measurement error problems – attenuation bias and other biases - complicate an analysis of the persistence of these differences in ownership. We use two methods - including one that develops the ideas of Deaton (1985) - to deal with this and find robust evidence that cohorts with low ownership rates at thirty close about 80% of the ownership gap by age forty.

What is the Role of Legal Systems in Financial Intermediation? Theory and Evidence

We develop a theory and empirical test of how the legal system affects the relationship between venture capitalists and entrepreneurs. The theory uses a double moral hazard framework to show how optimal contracts and investor actions depend on the quality of the legal system. The empirical evidence is based on a sample of European venture capital deals. The main results are that with better legal protection, investors give more non-contractible support and demand more downside protection. These predictions are supported by the empirical analysis. Using a new empirical approach of comparing two sets of fixed-effect regressions, we also find that the investor’s legal system is more important than that of the company in determining investor behavior.Financial Intermediation;Law and Finance;Corporate Governance;Venture Capital

The Importance of Trust for Investment: Evidence From Venture Capital (Revision of DP 2009-43)

We examine the effect of trust on financial investment and contracting decisions in a micro-economic environment where trust is exogenous. Using hand-collected data on European venture capital, we show that the Eurobarometer measure of trust among nations significantly affects investment decisions. This holds even after controlling for investor and company fixed effects, geographic distance, information and transaction costs. The national identity of venture capital firms’ individual partners further contributes to the effect of trust. Education and work experience reduce the effect of trust but do not eliminate it. We also examine the relationship between trust and sophisticated contracts involving contingent control rights and find that, even after controlling for endogeneity, they are complements, not substitutes.Venture Capital;Social Capital;Trust;Financial Contracts;Corporate Governance.

ANGELAH: A Framework for Assisting Elders At Home

The ever growing percentage of elderly people within modern societies poses welfare systems under relevant stress. In fact, partial and progressive loss of motor, sensorial, and/or cognitive skills renders elders unable to live autonomously, eventually leading to their hospitalization. This results in both relevant emotional and economic costs. Ubiquitous computing technologies can offer interesting opportunities for in-house safety and autonomy. However, existing systems partially address in-house safety requirements and typically focus on only elder monitoring and emergency detection. The paper presents ANGELAH, a middleware-level solution integrating both ”elder monitoring and emergency detection” solutions and networking solutions. ANGELAH has two main features: i) it enables efficient integration between a variety of sensors and actuators deployed at home for emergency detection and ii) provides a solid framework for creating and managing rescue teams composed of individuals willing to promptly assist elders in case of emergency situations. A prototype of ANGELAH, designed for a case study for helping elders with vision impairments, is developed and interesting results are obtained from both computer simulations and a real-network testbed