Revised calendar date for the Taupo eruption derived by ¹⁴C wiggle-matching using a New Zealand kauri ¹⁴C calibration data set

Taupo volcano in central North Island, New Zealand, is the most frequently active and productive rhyolite volcano on Earth. Its latest explosive activity about 1800 years ago generated the spectacular Taupo eruption, the most violent eruption known in the world in the last 5000 years. We present here a new accurate and precise eruption date of AD 232 ± 5 (1718 ± 5 cal. BP) for the Taupo event. This date was derived by wiggle-matching 25 high-precision ¹⁴C dates from decadal samples of Phyllocladus trichomanoides from the Pureora buried forest near Lake Taupo against the high-precision, first-millennium AD subfossil Agathis australis (kauri) calibration data set constructed by the Waikato Radiocarbon Laboratory. It shows that postulated dates for the eruption estimated previously from Greenland ice-core records (AD 181 ± 2) and putative historical records of unusual atmospheric phenomena in ancient Rome and China (c. AD 186) are both untenable. However, although their conclusion of a zero north–south ¹⁴C offset is erroneous, and their data exhibit a laboratory bias of about 38 years (too young), Sparks et al. (Sparks RJ, Melhuish WH, McKee JWA, Ogden J, Palmer JG and Molloy BPJ (1995) ¹⁴C calibration in the Southern Hemisphere and the date of the last Taupo eruption: Evidence from tree-ring sequences. Radiocarbon 37: 155–163) correctly utilized the Northern Hemisphere calibration curve of Stuiver and Becker (Stuiver M and Becker B (1993) High-precision decadal calibration of the radiocarbon timescale, AD 1950–6000 BC. Radiocarbon 35: 35–65) to obtain an accurate wiggle-match date for the eruption identical to ours but less precise (AD 232 ± 15). Our results demonstrate that high-agreement levels, indicated by either agreement indices or χ² data, obtained from a ¹⁴C wiggle-match do not necessarily mean that age models are accurate. We also show that laboratory bias, if suspected, can be mitigated by applying the reservoir offset function with an appropriate error value (e.g. 0 ± 40 years). Ages for eruptives such as Taupo tephra that are based upon individual ¹⁴C dates should be considered as approximate only, and confined ideally to short-lived material (e.g. seeds, leaves, small branches or the outer rings of larger trees)

An empirical resampling method for determining optimal high-pass filters used in correlation-based tree-ring crossdating

Visual crossdating of tree-ring series focusses on high-frequency variations. Automated correlation-based crossdating tools mimic this by transforming raw ring widths into indices that emphasise the high frequency signal, prior to calculating the goodness-of-fit between series. Here we present a resampling methodology to determine the relative merits of alternative simple high-pass filters and demonstrate it using two tree-ring data sets (British Isles oak, New Zealand kauri). Results indicate that: (a) high-pass filtering is a critical step; (b) the efficacy of alternative filters is variable, and; (c) efficacy appears to be species specific. These results have implications for crossdating in the two contexts investigated, and also for future software developments, especially the desirability of flexible implementations of high-pass filtering

The New Zealand Kauri (Agathis Australis) Research Project: A Radiocarbon Dating Intercomparison of Younger Dryas Wood and Implications for IntCal13

We describe here the New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) Younger Dryas (YD) research project, which aims to undertake Δ14C analysis of ~140 decadal floating wood samples spanning the time interval ~13.1–11.7 kyr cal BP. We report 14C intercomparison measurements being undertaken by the carbon dating laboratories at University of Waikato (Wk), University of California at Irvine (UCI), and University of Oxford (OxA). The Wk, UCI, and OxA laboratories show very good agreement with an interlaboratory comparison of 12 successive decadal kauri samples (average offsets from consensus values of –7 to +4 14C yr). A University of Waikato/University of Heidelberg (HD) intercomparison involving measurement of the YD-age Swiss larch tree Ollon505, shows a HD/Wk offset of ~10–20 14C yr (HD younger), and strong evidence that the positioning of the Ollon505 series is incorrect, with a recommendation that the 14C analyses be removed from the IntCal calibration database

The influence of calibration curve construction and composition on the accuracy and precision of radiocarbon wiggle-matching of tree rings, illustrated by Southern Hemisphere atmospheric data sets from ad 1500–1950

This research investigates two factors influencing the ability of tree-ring data to provide accurate 14C calibration information: the fitness and rigor of the statistical model used to combine the data into a curve; and the accuracy, precision and reproducibility of the component 14C data sets. It presents a new Bayesian spline method for calibration curve construction and tests it on extant and new Southern Hemisphere (SH) data sets (also examining their dendrochronology and pretreatment) for the post-Little Ice Age (LIA) interval AD 1500–1950. The new method of construction allows calculation of component data offsets, permitting identification of laboratory and geographic biases. Application of the new method to the 10 suitable SH 14C data sets suggests that individual offset ranges for component data sets appear to be in the region of ± 10 yr. Data sets with individual offsets larger than this need to be carefully assessed before selection for calibration purposes. We identify a potential geographical offset associated with the Southern Ocean (high latitude) Campbell Island data. We test the new methodology for wiggle-matching short tree-ring sequences and use an OxCal simulation to assess the likely precision obtainable by wiggle-matching in the post-LIA interval

Limiting distributions for explosive PAR(1) time series with strongly mixing innovation

This work deals with the limiting distribution of the least squares estimators of the coefficients a r of an explosive periodic autoregressive of order 1 (PAR(1)) time series X r = a r X r--1 +u r when the innovation {u k } is strongly mixing. More precisely {a r } is a periodic sequence of real numbers with period P \textgreater{} 0 and such that P r=1 |a r | \textgreater{} 1. The time series {u r } is periodically distributed with the same period P and satisfies the strong mixing property, so the random variables u r can be correlated

Punctuated Shutdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during Greenland Stadial 1.

The Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1; ~12.9 to 11.65 kyr cal BP) was a period of North Atlantic cooling, thought to have been initiated by North America fresh water runoff that caused a sustained reduction of North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), resulting in an antiphase temperature response between the hemispheres (the 'bipolar seesaw'). Here we exploit sub-fossil New Zealand kauri trees to report the first securely dated, decadally-resolved atmospheric radiocarbon ((14)C) record spanning GS-1. By precisely aligning Southern and Northern Hemisphere tree-ring (14)C records with marine (14)C sequences we document two relatively short periods of AMOC collapse during the stadial, at ~12,920-12,640 cal BP and 12,050-11,900 cal BP. In addition, our data show that the interhemispheric atmospheric (14)C offset was close to zero prior to GS-1, before reaching 'near-modern' values at ~12,660 cal BP, consistent with synchronous recovery of overturning in both hemispheres and increased Southern Ocean ventilation. Hence, sustained North Atlantic cooling across GS-1 was not driven by a prolonged AMOC reduction but probably due to an equatorward migration of the Polar Front, reducing the advection of southwesterly air masses to high latitudes. Our findings suggest opposing hemispheric temperature trends were driven by atmospheric teleconnections, rather than AMOC changes

Decadally resolved lateglacial radiocarbon evidence from New Zealand kauri

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2016. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Radiocarbon 58 (2016): 709-733, doi: 10.1017/RDC.2016.86.The Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition (LGIT; 15,000-11,000 cal BP) was characterized by complex spatiotemporal patterns of climate change, with numerous studies requiring accurate chronological control to decipher leads from lags in global paleoclimatic, -environmental and archaeological records. However, close scrutiny of the few available tree-ring chronologies and 14C-dated sequences composing the IntCal13 radiocarbon calibration curve, indicates significant weakness in 14C calibration across key periods of the LGIT. Here, we present a decadally-resolved atmospheric 14C record derived from New Zealand kauri spanning the Lateglacial from ~13,100 - 11,365 cal BP. Two floating kauri 14C time series, curve-matched to IntCal13, serve as a radiocarbon backbone through the Younger Dryas. The floating Northern Hemisphere (NH) 14C datasets derived from the YD-B and Central European Lateglacial Master tree-ring series are matched against the new kauri data, forming a robust NH 14C time series to ~14,200 cal BP. Our results show that IntCal13 is questionable from ~12,200 - 11,900 cal BP and the ~10,400 BP 14C plateau is approximately five decades too short. The new kauri record and re-positioned NH pine 14C series offer a refinement of the international 14C calibration curves IntCal13 and SHCal13, providing increased confidence in the correlation of global paleorecords.This work was part funded by the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology (FRST)—now Ministry for Business, Innovation & Employment (MBIE)-PROP-20224-SFK-UOA), a Royal Society of New Zealand grant, the Australian Research Council (FL100100195 and DP0664898) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/H009922/1, NE/I007660/1, NER/A/S/2001/01037 and NE/H007865/1)