Spatial and temporal variations of malaria epidemic risk in Ethiopia: factors involved and implications.

The aim of this study was to describe spatial and temporal variations in malaria epidemic risk in Ethiopia and to examine factors involved in relation to their implications for early warning and interpretation of geographical risk models. Forty-eight epidemic episodes were identified in various areas between September 1986 and August 1993 and factors that might have led to the events investigated using health facility records and weather data. The study showed that epidemics in specific years were associated with specific geographical areas. A major epidemic in 1988 affected the highlands whereas epidemics in 1991 and 1992 affected highland-fringe areas on the escarpments of the Rift Valley and in southern and north-western parts of the country. Malaria epidemics were significantly more often preceded by a month of abnormally high minimum temperature in the preceding 3 months than based on random chance, whereas frequency of abnormally low minimum temperature prior to epidemics was significantly lower than expected. Abnormal increases of maximum temperature and rainfall had no positive association with the epidemics. A period of low incidence during previous transmission seasons might have aggravated the events, possibly due to low level of immunity in affected populations. Epidemic risk is a dynamic phenomenon with changing geographic pattern based on temporal variations in determinant factors including weather and other eco-epidemiological characteristics of areas at risk. Epidemic early warning systems should take account of non-uniform effects of these factors by space and time and thus temporal dimensions need to be considered in spatial models of epidemic risks

LYMFASIM, a simulation model for predicting the impact of lymphatic filariasis control: quantification for African villages.

LYMFASIM is a simulation model for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control. We quantified its parameters to simulate Wuchereria bancrofti transmission by Anopheles mosquitoes in African villages, using a wide variety of reported data. The developed model captures the general epidemiological patterns, but also the differences between communities. It was calibrated to represent the relationship between mosquito biting rate and the prevalence of microfilariae (mf) in the human population, the age-pattern in mf prevalence, and the relation between mf prevalence and geometric mean mf intensity. Explorative simulations suggest that the impact of mass treatment depends strongly on the mosquito biting rate and on the assumed coverage, compliance and efficacy. Our sensitivity analysis showed that some biological parameters strongly influence the predicted equilibrium pre-treatment mf prevalence (e.g. the lifespan of adult worms and mf). Other parameters primarily affect the post-treatment trends (e.g. severity of density dependence in the mosquito uptake of infection from the human blood, between-person variability in exposure to mosquito bites). The longitudinal data, which are being collected for evaluation of ongoing elimination programmes, can help to further validate the model. The model can help to assess when ongoing elimination activities in African populations can be stopped and to design surveillance schemes. It can be a valuable tool for decision making in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis

Forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in epidemic-prone areas of Ethiopia: a simple seasonal adjustment method performs best.

The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of different methods of forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in areas with unstable transmission. We tested five methods using incidence data reported from health facilities in 20 areas in central and north-western Ethiopia. The accuracy of each method was determined by calculating errors resulting from the difference between observed incidence and corresponding forecasts obtained for prediction intervals of up to 12 months. Simple seasonal adjustment methods outperformed a statistically more advanced autoregressive integrated moving average method. In particular, a seasonal adjustment method that uses mean deviation of the last three observations from expected seasonal values consistently produced the best forecasts. Using 3 years' observation to generate forecasts with this method gave lower errors than shorter or longer periods. Incidence during the rainy months of June-August was the most predictable with this method. Forecasts for the normally dry months, particularly December-February, were less accurate. The study shows the limitations of forecasting incidence from historical morbidity patterns alone, and indicates the need for improved epidemic early warning by incorporating external predictors such as meteorological factors

Differences in perinatal morbidity and mortality on the neighbourhood level in Dutch municipalities: A population based cohort study

Background: In a national perinatal health programme, we observed striking heterogeneity in the explanation of the most prominen

Geographical, ethnic and socio-economic differences in utilization of obstetric care in the netherlands

Background All women in the Netherlands should have equal access to obstetric care. However, utilization of care is shaped by demand and supply factors. Demand is increased in high risk groups (non-Western women, low socio-economic status (SES)), and supply is influenced by availability of hospital facilities (hospital density). To explore the dynamics of obstetric care utilization we investigated the joint association of hospital density and individual characteristics with prototype obstetric interventions. Methods A logistic multi-level model was fitted on retrospective data from the Netherlands Perinatal Registry (years 2000-2008, 1.532.441 singleton pregnancies). In this analysis, the first level comprised individual maternal characteristics, the second of neighbourhood SES and hospital density. The four outcome variables were: referral during pregnancy, elective caesarean section (term and post-term breech pregnancies), induction of labour (term and post-term pregnancies), and birth setting in assumed low-risk pregnancies. Results Higher hospital density is not associated with more obstetric interventions. Adjusted for maternal characteristics and hospital density, living in low SES neighbourhoods, and non- Western ethnicity were generally associated with a lower probability of interventions. For example, non-Western women had considerably lower odds for induction of labour in all geographical areas, with strongest effects in the more rural areas (non-Western women: OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.77-0.80, p<0.001). Conclusion Our results suggest inequalities in obstetric care utilization in the Netherlands, and more specifically a relative underservice to the deprived, independent of level of supply

The Association of Neighborhood Social Capital and Ethnic (Minority) Density with Pregnancy Outcomes in the Netherlands

Background: Perinatal morbidity rates are relatively high in the Netherlands, and significant inequalities in perinatal morbidity and mortality can be found across neighborhoods. In socioeconomically deprived areas, ‘Western’ women are particularly at risk for adverse birth outcomes. Almost all studies to date have explained the disparities in terms of individual determinants of birth outcomes. This study examines the influence of neighborhood contextual characteristics on birth weight (adjusted for gestational age) and preterm birth. We focused on the influence of neighborhood social capital – measured as informal socializing and social connections between neighbors – as well as ethnic (minority) density. Methods: Data on birth weight and prematurity were obtained from the Perinatal Registration Netherlands 2000–2008 dataset, containing 97% of all pregnancies. Neighborhood-level measurements were obtained from three different sources, comprising both survey and registration data. We included 3.422 neighborhoods and 1.527.565 pregnancies for the birth weight analysis and 1.549.285 pregnancies for the premature birth analysis. Linear and logistic multilevel regression was performed to assess the associations of individual and neighborhood level variables with birth weight and preterm birth. Results: We found modest but significant neighborhood effects on birth weight and preterm births. The effect of ethnic (minority) density was stronger than that of neighborhood social capital. Moreover, ethnic (minority) density was associated with higher birth weight for infants of non-Western ethnic minority women compared to Western women (15 grams; 95% CI: 12,4/17,5) as well as reduced risk for prematurity (OR 0.97; CI 0,95/0,99). Conclusions: Our results indicate that neighborhood contexts are associated with birth weight and preterm birth in the Netherlands. Moreover, ethnic (minority) density seems to be a protective factor for non-Western ethnic minority women, but not for Western women. This helps explain the increased risk of Western women in deprived neighborhoods for adverse birth outcomes found in previous studies

Differences in quality-of-life dimensions of Adult Strabismus Quality of Life and Amblyopia & Strabismus Questionnaires

Purpose: The Adult Strabismus Quality of Life Questionnaire (AS-20) and the Amblyopia & Strabismus Questionnaire (A&SQ) both measure health-related quality of life in strabismus patients. We evaluated to what extent these instruments cover similar domains by identifying the underlying quality-of-life factors of the combined questionnaires. Methods: Participants were adults from a historic cohort with available orthoptic childhood data documenting strabismus and/or amblyopia. They had previously completed the A&SQ and were now asked to complete the AS-20. Factor analysis was performed on the correlation-matrix of the combined AS-20 and A&SQ data to identify common underlying factors. The identified factors were correlated with the clinical variables of angle of strabismus, degree of binocular vision, and visual acuity of the worse eye. Results: One hundred ten patients completed both questionnaires (mean age, 44 years; range, 38–51 years). Six factors were found that together explained 78% of the total variance. The factor structure was dominated by the first four factors. One factor contained psychosocial and social-contact items, and another factor depth-perception items from both questionnaires. A third factor contained seven items—only from the AS-20—on eye strain, stress, and difficulties with reading and with concentrating. A fourth factor contained seven items—only from the A&SQ—on fear of losing the better eye and visual disorientation, specific for amblyopia. Current visual acuity of the worse eye correlated with depth-perception items and vision-related items, whereas current binocular vision correlated with psychosocial and social-contact items, in 93 patients. Conclusions: Factor analysis suggests that the AS-20 and A&SQ measure a similar psychosocial quality-of-life domain. However, functional problems like avoidance of reading, difficulty in concentrating, eye stress, reading problems, inability to enjoy hobbies, and need for frequent breaks when reading are represented only in the AS-20. During the development of the A&SQ, asthenopia items were considered insufficiently specific for strabismus and were excluded a priori. The patients who generated the items for the AS-20 had, in majority, adulthood-onset strabismus and diplopia and were, hence, more likely to develop such complaints than our adult patients with childhood-onset strabismus and/or amblyopia

Prostate cancer-specific anxiety in Dutch patients on active surveillance: validation of the memorial anxiety scale for prostate cancer

Purpose: Men with prostate cancer (PC) may show specific disease-related anxiety. We evaluated the psychometric properties of the Dutch adaptation of the Memorial Anxiety Scale for Prostate Cancer (MAX-PC). Methods: The MAX-PC was translated using standardized forward-backward procedures. Patients (N = 150) on active surveillance, a strategy of initially withholding active therapy, for recently diagnosed early PC were mailed a questionnaire. Internal consistency was estimated using Cronbach's alpha. The scale structure was analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Construct validity was evaluated by Pearson's correlations between MAX-PC scores and scores on decisional conflict (DCS), generic anxiety (STAI), depression (CES-D), and general mental health (SF-12 MCS). Results: Data from 129 respondents were used (response rate 86%). Cronbach's alpha for the total score and the three subscales were 0.77, 0.91, 0.64, and 0.85, respectively. CFA largely confirmed the three-factor structure as used in the original publication (model fit: χ2 149, P = 0.051). The patterns of directions and sizes of the correlations (r = 0.36-0.66) between MAX-PC scale scores and the other variables were in accordance with a priori hypotheses, except for the prostate-specific antigen anxiety subscale. The relatively poor performance of this scale in the original version was replicated. Conclusions: The structure and validity of the MAX-PC to quantify PC-specific anxiety were largely confirmed in Dutch patients

Effects of an intervention aimed at reducing the intake of sugar-sweetened beverages in primary school children: A controlled trial

Abstract Background Since sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) may contribute to the development of overweight in children, effective interventions to reduce their consumption are needed. Here we evaluated the effect of a combined school- and community-based intervention aimed at reducing children’s SSB consumption by promoting the intake of water. Favourable intervention effects on children’s SSB consumption were hypothesized. Methods In 2011-2012, a controlled trial was conducted among four primary schools, comprising 1288 children aged 6-12 years who lived in multi-ethnic, socially deprived neighbourhoods in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Intervention schools adopted the ‘water campaign’, an intervention developed using social marketing. Control schools continued with their regular health promotion programme. Primary outcome was children’s SSB consumption, measured using parent and child questionnaires and through observations at school, both at baseline and after one year of intervention. Results Significant positive intervention effects were found for average SSB consumption (B -0.19 litres, 95% CI -0.28;-0.10; parent report), average SSB servings (B -0.54 servings, 95% CI -0.82;-0.26; parent report) and bringing SSB to school (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.36;0.72; observation report). Conclusions This study supports the effectiveness of the water campaign intervention in reducing children’s SSB consumption. Further studies are needed to replicate our findings. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials: NTR3400 webcit