Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Primary prevention of stroke in children with sickle cell anemia in sub-Saharan Africa: rationale and design of phase III randomized clinical trial

Strokes in children with sickle cell anemia (SCA) are associated with significant morbidity and premature death. Primary stroke prevention in children with SCA involves screening for abnormal transcranial Doppler (TCD) velocity coupled with regular blood transfusion therapy for children with abnormal velocities, for at least one year. However, in Africa, where the majority of children with SCA live, regular blood transfusions are not feasible due to inadequate supply of safe blood, cost, and the reluctance of caregivers to accept transfusion therapy for their children. We describe the Primary Prevention of Stroke in Children with Sickle Cell Disease in Nigeria Trial [StrokePreventioninNigeria (SPRING) trial, NCT02560935], a three-center double-blinded randomized controlled Phase III clinical trial to 1) determine the efficacy of moderate fixed-dose (20 mg/kg/day) versus low fixed-dose (10 mg/kg/day) hydroxyurea therapy for primary stroke prevention; 2) determine the efficacy of moderate fixed-dose hydroxyurea for decreasing the incidence of all cause-hospitalization (pain, acute chest syndrome, infection, other) compared to low fixed-dose hydroxyurea. We will test the primary hypothesis that there will be a 66% relative risk reduction of strokes in children with SCA and abnormal TCD measurements, randomly allocated, for a minimum of three years to receive moderate fixed-dose versus low fixed-dose hydroxyurea (total n = 220). The results of this trial will advance the care of children with SCA in sub-Saharan Africa, while improving research capacity for future studies to prevent strokes in children with SCA.</p

Hydroxyurea for primary stroke prevention in children with sickle cell anaemia in Nigeria (SPRING): a double-blind, multicentre, randomised, phase 3 trial

Background: In high-income countries, standard care for primary stroke prevention in children with sickle cell anaemia and abnormal transcranial Doppler velocities results in a 92% relative risk reduction of strokes but mandates initial monthly blood transfusion. In Africa, where regular blood transfusion is not feasible for most children, we tested the hypothesis that initial moderate-dose compared with low-dose hydroxyurea decreases the incidence of strokes for children with abnormal transcranial Doppler velocities.Methods: SPRING is a double-blind, parallel-group, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial of children aged 5-12 years with sickle cell anaemia with abnormal transcranial Doppler velocities conducted at three teaching hospitals in Nigeria. For randomisation, we used a permuted block allocation scheme with block sizes of four, stratified by sex and site. Allocation was concealed from all but the pharmacists and statisticians. Participants were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to low-dose (10 mg/kg per day) or moderate-dose (20 mg/kg per day) oral hydroxyurea taken once daily with monthly clinical evaluation and laboratory monitoring. The primary outcome was initial stroke or transient ischaemic attack, centrally adjudicated. The secondary outcome was all-cause hospitalisation. We used the intention-to-treat population for data analysis. The trial was stopped early for futility after a planned minimum follow-up of 3·0 years to follow-up for participants. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02560935.FINDINGS: Between Aug 2, 2016, and June 14, 2018, 220 participants (median age 7·2 years [IQR 5·5-8·9]; 114 [52%] female) were randomly allocated and followed for a median of 2·4 years (IQR 2·0-2·8). All participants were Nigerian and were from the following ethnic groups: 179 (82%) people were Hausa, 25 (11%) were Fulani, and 16 (7%) identified as another ethnicity. In the low-dose hydroxyurea group, three (3%) of 109 participants had strokes, with an incidence rate of 1·19 per 100 person-years and in the moderate-dose hydroxyurea group five (5%) of 111 had strokes with an incidence rate of 1·92 per 100 person-years (incidence rate ratio 0·62 [95% CI 0·10-3·20], p=0·77). The incidence rate ratio of hospitalisation for any reason was 1·71 (95% CI 1·15-2·57, p=0·0071), with higher incidence rates per 100 person-years in the low-dose group versus the moderate-dose group (27·43 vs 16·08). No participant had hydroxyurea treatment stopped for myelosuppression.Interpretation: Compared with low-dose hydroxyurea therapy, participants treated with moderate-dose hydroxyurea had no difference in the stroke incidence rate. However, secondary analyses suggest that the moderate-dose group could lower incidence rates for all-cause hospitalisations. These findings provide an evidence-based guideline for the use of low-dose hydroxyurea therapy for children with sickle cell anaemia at risk of stroke.Funding: National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke

Randomized controlled trial of fixed low-vs moderate-dose hydroxyurea for primary stroke prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa: Final results of the Spring Trial

Introduction: In children with sickle cell anemia (SCA) without transcranial Doppler (TCD) screening, the incidence rates of ischemic strokes is approximately the same among children living in low- and high- low-resource settings (Pediatr Neurol. 2019;95:73-78.) with a prevalence of ~ 11%. However, in high-income settings, the standard use of TCD ultrasonography, coupled initially with monthly blood transfusion therapy has dropped the stroke prevalence to &lt; 1%. In a low-income setting, such as Nigeria, where 50% of children in the world with SCA are born (150,000 per year), initial monthly blood transfusion therapy is not practical for most children.In the Stroke Prevention in Nigeria (SPIN) Feasibility Trial (NCT01801423), fixed moderate-dose hydroxyurea was associated with a decreased rate of strokes in children with SCA and abnormal time-averaged mean of the maximum velocity (TAMMV) TCD measurements (≥200cm/sec) when compared to no treatment in the STOP Trial, 0.76 and 10.7 strokes per 100 person-years, repsectively (Am J Hematol. 2020). Based on the success of the SPIN trial, plus the challenges of real-world implementation of a government-supported primary stroke prevention programs for estimated 40,0000 children with SCA in three states in Nigeria, we tested the hypothesis that fixed-moderate dose (~20 mg/kg/day) hydroxyurea therapy for primary stroke prevention results in a 66% relative risk reduction (9 to 3 events per 100 person-years) when compared to fixed low-dose hydroxyurea (~10 mg/kg/day) therapy in a randomized controlled trial (The SPRING Trial; NCT02560935).Methods: In this partial-blind controlled phase III trial, we randomly assigned children between 5 and 12 years of age with SCA and a TCD time-averaged mean of the maximum velocity (TAMMV) ≥ 200 cm/sec measured independently twice or TAMMV ≥220 cm/sec once at study screening to receive fixed low-dose or fixed moderate-dose hydroxyurea. The primary endpoint was a clinical stroke or a transient ischemic attack (TIA). Myelosuppression was assessed with monthly complete blood counts (CBCs). Adherence to hydroxyurea was primarily based on an increase in MCV from baseline and monthly pill count return as a percent of dispensed pills. Hemoglobin F levels were measured at baseline, annually and upon trial exit. To evaluate the safety of hydroxyurea in the trial, children attending the same SCA clinics with TCD (TAMMV) &lt;200 cm/sec at study screening were prospectively followed with biweekly phone calls and annual research visits.Results: A total of 220 children (mean age: 7.5 years, 51.8% female) were randomly assigned to fixed low- (10 mg/kg/day) or moderate- (20 mg/kg/day) dose hydroxyurea, and were followed for a median of 2.4 years (IQR 2.0-2.8). NINDS Clinical Trials leaders stopped the trial early because of futility for the primary outcome. In the fixed low- and moderate-dose hydroxyurea groups, the incidence rates of strokes per 100 person-years were 1.19 and 1.92 respectively, with an incidence rate ratio of 1.60 (95% CI: 0.31-10.34), p = 0.768. The incidence rate ratio of mortality when comparing the children treated with low- and moderate- fixed-dose hydroxyurea to the non-elevated TCD group (no hydroxyurea therapy, n= 211) was 1.97 (95% CI: 0.64-6.02) and 0.47 (95% CI: 0.05-2.38), p = 0.265 and 0.545, respectively. Returned pills during the trial was 5.4% and 4.8% in the fixed low- and moderate-dose groups, respectively, p= 0.144. MCV from baseline to endpoint increased 1.5fl and 7.2 fl in the fixed low- and moderate-dose groups, respectively, p&lt;0.001. Upon exit from the trial 29.4% and 66.7% of the fixed- low and moderate -dose groups, respectively, had either hemoglobin level ≥ 9.0 g/dl, or a fetal hemoglobin level ≥ 20%.Conclusions: For primary stroke prevention in children with SCA, fixed low-dose, when compared to fixed moderate-dose hydroxyurea therapy, demonstrated no difference in the incidence rate of strokes. Both fixed low- and moderate -dose hydroxyurea doses are superior to no treatment for primary stroke prevention with abnormal TCD values. In partnership with Katsina, Kano, and Kaduna health department's leaders in Nigeria, 9 distinct SCA and primary stroke prevention clinics have been established, with the provision of free fixed low-dose hydroxyurea therapy (Bond Chemical, Nigeria; $0.15 per 500 mg) for abnormal TCD values, and biannual CBCs as standard care ,for over 40,000 children with SCA

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic