A Hedged Monte Carlo Approach to Real Option Pricing

In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to incorporating subjective views from management or market experts and to stochastic investment costs. It is based on the Hedged Monte Carlo strategy proposed by Potters et al (2001) where options are priced simultaneously with the determination of the corresponding hedging. The approach is particularly well-suited to the evaluation of commodity related projects whereby the availability of pricing formulae is very rare, the scenario simulations are usually available only in the historical measure, and the cash flows can be highly nonlinear functions of the prices.Comment: 25 pages, 14 figure

Assessment of strategies for switching patients from olanzapine to risperidone: A randomized, open-label, rater-blinded study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In clinical practice, physicians often need to change the antipsychotic medications they give to patients because of an inadequate response or the presence of unacceptable or unsafe side effects. However, there is a lack of consensus in the field as to the optimal switching strategy for antipsychotics, especially with regards to the speed at which the dose of the previous antipsychotic should be reduced. This paper assesses the short-term results of strategies for the discontinuation of olanzapine when initiating risperidone.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a 6-week, randomized, open-label, rater-blinded study, patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, on a stable drug dose for more than 30 days at entry, who were intolerant of or exhibiting a suboptimal symptom response to more than 30 days of olanzapine treatment, were randomly assigned to the following switch strategies (common risperidone initiation scheme; varying olanzapine discontinuation): (i) abrupt strategy, where olanzapine was discontinued at risperidone initiation; (ii) gradual 1 strategy, where olanzapine was given at 50% entry dose for 1 week after risperidone initiation and then discontinued; or (iii) gradual 2 strategy, where olanzapine was given at 100% entry dose for 1 week, then at 50% in the second week, and then discontinued.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The study enrolled 123 patients on stable doses of olanzapine. Their mean age was 40.3 years and mean (± standard deviation (SD)) baseline Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) total score of 75.6 ± 11.5. All-cause treatment discontinuation was lowest (12%) in the group with the slowest olanzapine dose reduction (gradual 2) and occurred at half the discontinuation rate in the other two groups (25% in abrupt and 28% in gradual 1). The relative risk of early discontinuation was 0.77 (confidence interval 0.61–0.99) for the slowest dose reduction compared with the other two strategies. After the medication was changed, improvements at endpoint were seen in PANSS total score (-7.3; <it>p </it>< 0.0001) and in PANSS positive (-3.0; <it>p </it>< 0.0001), negative (-0.9; <it>p </it>= 0.171) and anxiety/depression (-1.4; <it>p </it>= 0.0005) subscale scores. Severity of movement disorders and weight changes were minimal.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When switching patients from olanzapine to risperidone, a gradual reduction in the dose of olanzapine over 2 weeks was associated with higher rates of retention compared with abrupt or less gradual discontinuation. Switching via any strategy was associated with significant improvements in positive and anxiety symptoms and was generally well tolerated.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00378183</p

Cisplatin-induced emesis: systematic review and meta-analysis of the ferret model and the effects of 5-HT3 receptor antagonists

PURPOSE: The ferret cisplatin emesis model has been used for ~30 years and enabled identification of clinically used anti-emetics. We provide an objective assessment of this model including efficacy of 5-HT(3) receptor antagonists to assess its translational validity. METHODS: A systematic review identified available evidence and was used to perform meta-analyses. RESULTS: Of 182 potentially relevant publications, 115 reported cisplatin-induced emesis in ferrets and 68 were included in the analysis. The majority (n = 53) used a 10 mg kg(−1) dose to induce acute emesis, which peaked after 2 h. More recent studies (n = 11) also used 5 mg kg(−1), which induced a biphasic response peaking at 12 h and 48 h. Overall, 5-HT(3) receptor antagonists reduced cisplatin (5 mg kg(−1)) emesis by 68% (45–91%) during the acute phase (day 1) and by 67% (48–86%) and 53% (38–68%, all P < 0.001), during the delayed phase (days 2, 3). In an analysis focused on the acute phase, the efficacy of ondansetron was dependent on the dosage and observation period but not on the dose of cisplatin. CONCLUSION: Our analysis enabled novel findings to be extracted from the literature including factors which may impact on the applicability of preclinical results to humans. It reveals that the efficacy of ondansetron is similar against low and high doses of cisplatin. Additionally, we showed that 5-HT(3) receptor antagonists have a similar efficacy during acute and delayed emesis, which provides a novel insight into the pharmacology of delayed emesis in the ferret

Publication Bias in Antipsychotic Trials: An Analysis of Efficacy Comparing the Published Literature to the US Food and Drug Administration Database

A comparison of data held by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) against data from journal reports of clinical trials enables estimation of the extent of publication bias for antipsychotics

Identification of neural networks that contribute to motion sickness through principal components analysis of fos labeling induced by galvanic vestibular stimulation

Motion sickness is a complex condition that includes both overt signs (e.g., vomiting) and more covert symptoms (e.g., anxiety and foreboding). The neural pathways that mediate these signs and symptoms are yet to identified. This study mapped the distribution of c-fos protein (Fos)-like immunoreactivity elicited during a galvanic vestibular stimulation paradigm that is known to induce motion sickness in felines. A principal components analysis was used to identify networks of neurons activated during this stimulus paradigm from functional correlations between Fos labeling in different nuclei. This analysis identified five principal components (neural networks) that accounted for greater than 95% of the variance in Fos labeling. Two of the components were correlated with the severity of motion sickness symptoms, and likely participated in generating the overt signs of the condition. One of these networks included neurons in locus coeruleus, medial, inferior and lateral vestibular nuclei, lateral nucleus tractus solitarius, medial parabrachial nucleus and periaqueductal gray. The second included neurons in the superior vestibular nucleus, precerebellar nuclei, periaqueductal gray, and parabrachial nuclei, with weaker associations of raphe nuclei. Three additional components (networks) were also identified that were not correlated with the severity of motion sickness symptoms. These networks likely mediated the covert aspects of motion sickness, such as affective components. The identification of five statistically independent component networks associated with the development of motion sickness provides an opportunity to consider, in network activation dimensions, the complex progression of signs and symptoms that are precipitated in provocative environments. Similar methodology can be used to parse the neural networks that mediate other complex responses to environmental stimuli. © 2014 Balaban et al

Why Can't Rodents Vomit? A Comparative Behavioral, Anatomical, and Physiological Study

The vomiting (emetic) reflex is documented in numerous mammalian species, including primates and carnivores, yet laboratory rats and mice appear to lack this response. It is unclear whether these rodents do not vomit because of anatomical constraints (e.g., a relatively long abdominal esophagus) or lack of key neural circuits. Moreover, it is unknown whether laboratory rodents are representative of Rodentia with regards to this reflex. Here we conducted behavioral testing of members of all three major groups of Rodentia; mouse-related (rat, mouse, vole, beaver), Ctenohystrica (guinea pig, nutria), and squirrel-related (mountain beaver) species. Prototypical emetic agents, apomorphine (sc), veratrine (sc), and copper sulfate (ig), failed to produce either retching or vomiting in these species (although other behavioral effects, e.g., locomotion, were noted). These rodents also had anatomical constraints, which could limit the efficiency of vomiting should it be attempted, including reduced muscularity of the diaphragm and stomach geometry that is not well structured for moving contents towards the esophagus compared to species that can vomit (cat, ferret, and musk shrew). Lastly, an in situ brainstem preparation was used to make sensitive measures of mouth, esophagus, and shoulder muscular movements, and phrenic nerve activity-key features of emetic episodes. Laboratory mice and rats failed to display any of the common coordinated actions of these indices after typical emetic stimulation (resiniferatoxin and vagal afferent stimulation) compared to musk shrews. Overall the results suggest that the inability to vomit is a general property of Rodentia and that an absent brainstem neurological component is the most likely cause. The implications of these findings for the utility of rodents as models in the area of emesis research are discussed. © 2013 Horn et al

Cyanobacterial lipopolysaccharides and human health – a review

Cyanobacterial lipopolysaccharide/s (LPS) are frequently cited in the cyanobacteria literature as toxins responsible for a variety of heath effects in humans, from skin rashes to gastrointestinal, respiratory and allergic reactions. The attribution of toxic properties to cyanobacterial LPS dates from the 1970s, when it was thought that lipid A, the toxic moiety of LPS, was structurally and functionally conserved across all Gram-negative bacteria. However, more recent research has shown that this is not the case, and lipid A structures are now known to be very different, expressing properties ranging from LPS agonists, through weak endotoxicity to LPS antagonists. Although cyanobacterial LPS is widely cited as a putative toxin, most of the small number of formal research reports describe cyanobacterial LPS as weakly toxic compared to LPS from the Enterobacteriaceae. We systematically reviewed the literature on cyanobacterial LPS, and also examined the much lager body of literature relating to heterotrophic bacterial LPS and the atypical lipid A structures of some photosynthetic bacteria. While the literature on the biological activity of heterotrophic bacterial LPS is overwhelmingly large and therefore difficult to review for the purposes of exclusion, we were unable to find a convincing body of evidence to suggest that heterotrophic bacterial LPS, in the absence of other virulence factors, is responsible for acute gastrointestinal, dermatological or allergic reactions via natural exposure routes in humans. There is a danger that initial speculation about cyanobacterial LPS may evolve into orthodoxy without basis in research findings. No cyanobacterial lipid A structures have been described and published to date, so a recommendation is made that cyanobacteriologists should not continue to attribute such a diverse range of clinical symptoms to cyanobacterial LPS without research confirmation

European clinical guidelines for Tourette syndrome and other tic disorders. Part II: pharmacological treatment

To develop a European guideline on pharmacologic treatment of Tourette syndrome (TS) the available literature was thoroughly screened and extensively discussed by a working group of the European Society for the Study of Tourette syndrome (ESSTS). Although there are many more studies on pharmacotherapy of TS than on behavioral treatment options, only a limited number of studies meets rigorous quality criteria. Therefore, we have devised a two-stage approach. First, we present the highest level of evidence by reporting the findings of existing Cochrane reviews in this field. Subsequently, we provide the first comprehensive overview of all reports on pharmacological treatment options for TS through a MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE search for all studies that document the effect of pharmacological treatment of TS and other tic disorders between 1970 and November 2010. We present a summary of the current consensus on pharmacological treatment options for TS in Europe to guide the clinician in daily practice. This summary is, however, rather a status quo of a clinically helpful but merely low evidence guideline, mainly driven by expert experience and opinion, since rigorous experimental studies are scarce