Strong and moderate nonlinear El Nino regimes

It has been previously proposed that two El Nio (EN) regimes, strong and moderate, exist but the historical observational record is too short to establish this conclusively. Here, 1200 years of simulations with the GFDL CM2.1 model allowed us to demonstrate their existence in this model and, by showing that the relevant dynamics are also evident in observations, we present a stronger case for their existence in nature. In CM2.1, the robust bimodal probability distribution of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) indices during EN peaks provides evidence for the existence of the regimes, which is also supported by a cluster analysis of these same indices. The observations agree with this distribution, with the EN of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 corresponding to the strong EN regime and all the other observed EN to the moderate regime. The temporal evolution of various indices during the observed strong EN agrees very well with the events in CM2.1, providing further validation of this model as a proxy for nature. The two regimes differ strongly in the magnitude of the eastern Pacific warming but not much in the central Pacific. Observations and model agree in the existence of a finite positive threshold in the SST anomaly above which the zonal wind response to warming is strongly enhanced. Such nonlinearity in the Bjerknes feedback, which increases the growth rate of EN events if they reach sufficiently large amplitude, is very likely the essential mechanism that gives rise to the existence of the two EN regimes. Oceanic nonlinear advection does not appear essential for the onset of strong EN. The threshold nonlinearity could make the EN regimes very sensitive to stochastic forcing. Observations and model agree that the westerly wind stress anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific in late boreal summer has a substantial role determining the EN regime in the following winter and it is suggested that a stochastic component at this time was key for the development of the strong EN towards the end of 1982

Evaluating future climate change exposure of marine habitat in the South East Pacific based on metabolic constraints

IntroductionOn-going climate change is now recognized to yield physiological stresses on marine species, with potentially detrimental effects on ecosystems. Here, we evaluate the prospect of using climate velocities (CV) of the metabolic index (Φ) for assessing changes in habitat in the South East Pacific.MethodsOur approach is based on a species with mean ecophysiotype (i.e. model species) and the use of a global Earth System Model simulation (CESM-LE) under RCP 8.5 scenario. The SEP is chosen as a case study as it hosts an Oxygen Minimum Zone and seamounts systems sustaining local communities through artisanal fisheries.Results and DiscussionOur results indicate that CVΦ pattern is mainly constrained by the oxygen distribution and that its sign is affected by contrasting oxygen trends (including a re-oxygenation in the upper OMZ) and warming. We further show that CVΦ is weakly dependent on physiological traits composing Φ, which conveys to this metrics some value for inferring the projected mean displacement and potential changes in viability of metabolic habitat in a region where physiological data are scarce. Based on sensitivity experiments to physiological traits and natural variability, we propose a general method for inferring broad areas of climate change exposure regardless of species-specific Φ. We show in particular that for the model used here, the upper OMZ region can be considered a “safe” area for the species with ecophysiotype close to that of 71 species used to derive the model species. Limitations of the approach and perspectives of this work are also discussed

TPOS2020 : Tropical Pacific Observing System for 2020

This paper presents the new international TPOS2020 project: why it has been established, what are its scientific objectives, its proposed organization, governance, and what the expected outcomes are. It is aiming at informing Coriolis, Mercator Océan, and the operational oceanography communities, all concerned, and involved in generating interest and contributions to the project. Building upon its scientific activities in the Pacific and the surrounding countries, the French community is willing to take an active role in this international project. The TPOS 2020 Project is a focused, finite term project, which began in 2014 and will be completed in 2020. It will evaluate, and where necessary provide guidance, to change all elements that contribute to the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) based on a modern understanding of tropical Pacific science. Learning lessons from the great success-and finally partial collapse- of the TAO/TRITON array, the project objective is to build a renewed, integrated, internationally-coordinated and sustainable observing system in the Tropical Pacific, meeting both the needs of climate research and operational forecasting systems. The scientific objectives are: - To redesign and refine the TPOS to observe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and advance scientific understanding of its causes, - To determine the most efficient and effective observational solutions to support prediction systems for ocean, weather and climate services, - To advance understanding of tropical Pacific physical and biogeochemical variability and predictability. TPOS2020 is coordinated by a steering committee with task teams and working groups working on specific aspects of the observing system. Since much of the use and benefit of TPOS data will be achieved through model assimilation and syntheses, the operational modeling centers are considered key partners. The TPOS2020 project also opens partnerships with other global ocean observing communities: the meteorological community, and the coastal and regional ocean communities. TPOS 2020 embraces the integration of complementary sampling technologies; it will consider the different observing system components as an integrated whole, targeting robustness and sustainability, along with a developed governance and coordination

An Asymptotic Expansion for the Recharge-Discharge Model of ENSO

International audienceThe dynamics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are largely associated with the slow thermocline adjustment at interannual and basin scales. This adjustment involves, among other things, the fast propagation and reflection of equatorial waves by wind stress forcing. A simple and straightforward asymptotic expansion of the long-wave equations is proposed using the low-frequency approximation. The asymptotic expansion is performed in Fourier space, retaining only the gravest equatorial long waves and baroclinic modes with the largest scale, and considering small dissipation by friction and boundary reflections. This leads to an asymptotic model for the thermocline response to wind stress forcing, which is in essence the ocean component of the recharge-discharge model of ENSO. The asymptotic model is nonheuristic and in broad agreement with some essential results scattered in previous studies. Thermocline variability is divided into a sloping "Tilt mode" that adjusts instantly to wind stress forcing and a zonal-mean "Warm Water Volume mode" that adjusts as a time integrator to wind stress curl. The model has a plausible energy budget and its solutions are in good agreement with observations. Results suggest that the net adjustment rather than the explicit delays of equatorial waves is essential for the slow thermocline adjustment, and this is best described by the recharge-discharge model

Tropical Pacific Observing System

This paper reviews the design of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) and its governance and takes a forward look at prospective change. The initial findings of the TPOS 2020 Project embrace new strategic approaches and technologies in a user-driven design and the variable focus of the Framework for Ocean Observing. User requirements arise from climate prediction and research, climate change and the climate record, and coupled modeling and data assimilation more generally. Requirements include focus on the upper ocean and air-sea interactions, sampling of diurnal variations, finer spatial scales and emerging demands related to biogeochemistry and ecosystems. One aim is to sample a diversity of climatic regimes in addition to the equatorial zone. The status and outlook for meeting the requirements of the design are discussed. This is accomplished through integrated and complementary capabilities of networks, including satellites, moorings, profiling floats and autonomous vehicles. Emerging technologies and methods are also discussed. The outlook highlights a few new foci of the design: biogeochemistry and ecosystems, low-latitude western boundary currents and the eastern Pacific. Low latitude western boundary currents are conduits of tropical-subtropical interactions, supplying waters of mid to high latitude origin to the western equatorial Pacific and into the Indonesian Throughflow. They are an essential part of the recharge/discharge of equatorial warm water volume at interannual timescales and play crucial roles in climate variability on regional and global scales. The tropical eastern Pacific, where extreme El Niño events develop, requires tailored approaches owing to the complex of processes at work there involving coastal upwelling, and equatorial cold tongue dynamics, the oxygen minimum zone and the seasonal double Intertropical Convergence Zone. A pilot program building on existing networks is envisaged, complemented by a process study of the East Pacific ITCZ/warm pool/cold tongue/stratus coupled system. The sustainability of TPOS depends on effective and strong collaborative partnerships and governance arrangements. Revisiting regional mechanisms and engaging new partners in the context of a planned and systematic design will ensure a multi-purpose, multi-faceted integrated approach that is sustainable and responsive to changing needs

Environmental Drivers of Mesophotic Echinoderm Assemblages of the Southeastern Pacific Ocean

Mesophotic ecosystems (50–400 m depth) of the southeastern Pacific have rarely been studied because of the logistical challenges in sampling across this remote zone. This study assessed how oxygen concentrations and other environmental predictors explain variation in echinoderm assemblages at these mesophotic systems, where this group is among the predominant fauna. We compiled data on echinoderm taxa at 91 sampling stations, from historical and recent surveys (between 1950 and 2019), covering a longitudinal gradient of approximately 3,700 km along with the Nazca, Salas y Gómez, and Juan Fernández ridges. Uni- and multivariate model-based tools were applied to analyze the patterns of benthic fauna in relation to environmental factors. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between echinoderm species richness and depth, oxygen, and salinity. Changes in echinoderm community composition were significantly explained by oxygen, longitude, and chlorophyll-a. We observed notable species turnovers at ∼101 and ∼86°W, where assemblages tend to be more variable across stations. This turnover possibly reflects the effects of physical barriers to dispersion (e.g., currents) and habitat changes. Echinoderm assemblages observed around Easter and Desventuradas Islands presented a high occurrence of potentially endemic taxa and distinct species assemblages. This study is the first to assess the structure of mesophotic echinoderm assemblages of the southeastern Pacific Ocean along a large spatial scale. The information reported here could help design appropriate management tools for the vast, recently created, marine protected areas in the southeastern Pacific

On the interpretation of changes in the subtropical oxygen minimum zone volume off Chile during two La Niña events (2001 and 2007)

Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are extended oceanic regions for which dissolved oxygen concentration is extremely low. They are suspected to be expanding in response to global warming. However, currently, the mechanisms by which OMZ varies in response to climate variability are still uncertain. Here, the variability of the subtropical OMZ off central Chile of a regional coupled physical–biogeochemical regional model simulation was analyzed for the period 2000–2008, noting that its fluctuations were significant despite the relatively weak amplitude of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In particular, the interannual variability in the OMZ volume (OMZVOL, defined as the volume with dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) ≤ 45μM) was approximately 38% larger than that of the seasonal cycle, with maximum and minimum anomalies of OMZVOL taking place during two cold La Niña (LN) years (2001 and 2007). The model analyses further reveal that these anomalies resulted from a combined effect of changes in (1) the oxygen-poor waters poleward transport by the Peru–Chile undercurrent (PCUC), (2) the intensity of quasi-zonal jets influencing the transport of water to and from the OMZ, and (3) the zonal DO transport related to mesoscale eddy activity. Specifically, the interannual variability of the PCUC modulated primarily the DO contents of the OMZ core [(DO) ≤ 20μM] and secondarily the OMZVOL, while cross-shore DO transport by the zonal jets and the eddy fluxes played a major role in ventilating and shaping the offshore extent of the OMZ. When the OMZVOL was maximum (minimum), the PCUC transport was slightly increased (reduced), which was associated with a reduction (increase) in the ventilation of the OMZ through negative (positive) anomalies of zonal advection and DO eddy fluxes. Our results demonstrate that significant natural interannual variability in the subtropical OMZ off Chile originates from the interplay between oceanic equatorial teleconnection (PCUC transport) and local non-linear dynamics (the zonal jets and mesoscale eddies)

Climatically-Active Gases in the Eastern Boundary Upwelling and Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) Systems

International audienceThe EBUS (Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems) and OMZs (Oxygen Minimum Zone) contribute very significantly to the gas exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, notably with respect to the greenhouse gases (hereafter GHG). From in-situ ocean measurements, the uncertainty of the net global ocean-atmosphere CO2 fluxes is between 20 and 30%, and could be much higher in the EBUS-OMZ. Off Peru, very few in-situ data are available presently, which justifies alternative approaches for assessing these fluxes. GHG air-sea fluxes determination can be inferred from inverse modeling applied to Vertical Column Densities (VCDs) from GOSAT, using state of the art modeling, at low spatial resolution. For accurately linking sources of GHGs to EBUS and OMZs, the resolution of the source regions needs to be increased. This task develops on new non-linear and multiscale processing methods for complex signals to infer a higher spatial resolution mapping of the fluxes and the associated sinks and sources between the atmosphere and the ocean. The use of coupled satellite data (e.g. SST and/or Ocean colour) that carry turbulence information associated to ocean dynamics is taken into account at unprecedented detail level to incorporate turbulence effects in the evaluation of the air-sea fluxes. We will present a framework as described above for determining sources and sinks of GHG from satellite remote sensing with the Peru OMZ as a test bed

In search for the sources of plastic marine litter that contaminates the Easter Island Ecoregion

Subtropical gyres are the oceanic regions where plastic litter accumulates over long timescales, exposing surrounding oceanic islands to plastic contamination, with potentially severe consequences on marine life. Islands’ exposure to such contaminants, littered over long distances in marine or terrestrial habitats, is due to the ocean currents that can transport plastic over long ranges. Here, this issue is addressed for the Easter Island ecoregion (EIE). High-resolution ocean circulation models are used with a Lagrangian particle-tracking tool to identify the connectivity patterns of the EIE with industrial fishing areas and coastline regions of the Pacific basin. Connectivity patterns for “virtual” particles either floating (such as buoyant macroplastics) or neutrally-buoyant (smaller microplastics) are investigated. We find that the South American shoreline between 20°S and 40°S, and the fishing zone within international waters off Peru (20°S, 80°W) are associated with the highest probability for debris to reach the EIE, with transit times under 2 years. These regions coincide with the most-densely populated coastal region of Chile and the most-intensely fished region in the South Pacific. The findings offer potential for mitigating plastic contamination reaching the EIE through better upstream waste management. Results also highlight the need for international action plans on this important issue

Tropical Pacific observing system

This paper reviews the design of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) and its governance and takes a forward look at prospective change. The initial findings of the TPOS 2020 Project embrace new strategic approaches and technologies in a user-driven design and the variable focus of the Framework for Ocean Observing. User requirements arise from climate prediction and research, climate change and the climate record, and coupled modeling and data assimilation more generally. Requirements include focus on the upper ocean and air-sea interactions, sampling of diurnal variations, finer spatial scales and emerging demands related to biogeochemistry and ecosystems. One aim is to sample a diversity of climatic regimes in addition to the equatorial zone. The status and outlook for meeting the requirements of the design are discussed. This is accomplished through integrated and complementary capabilities of networks, including satellites, moorings, profiling floats and autonomous vehicles. Emerging technologies and methods are also discussed. The outlook highlights a few new foci of the design: biogeochemistry and ecosystems, low-latitude western boundary currents and the eastern Pacific. Low latitude western boundary currents are conduits of tropical-subtropical interactions, supplying waters of mid to high latitude origin to the western equatorial Pacific and into the Indonesian Throughflow. They are an essential part of the recharge/discharge of equatorial warm water volume at interannual timescales and play crucial roles in climate variability on regional and global scales. The tropical eastern Pacific, where extreme El Niño events develop, requires tailored approaches owing to the complex of processes at work there involving coastal upwelling, and equatorial cold tongue dynamics, the oxygen minimum zone and the seasonal double Intertropical Convergence Zone. A pilot program building on existing networks is envisaged, complemented by a process study of the East Pacific ITCZ/warm pool/cold tongue/stratus coupled system. The sustainability of TPOS depends on effective and strong collaborative partnerships and governance arrangements. Revisiting regional mechanisms and engaging new partners in the context of a planned and systematic design will ensure a multi-purpose, multi-faceted integrated approach that is sustainable and responsive to changing needs