UK State Pension Reform in a Public Choice Framework

Social security systems for old age have been explicitly studied in a public choice framework for over 30 years. They illustrate extremely well the problems of allocating economic resources through a system of voting. Pension systems also currently provide some of the most significant threats to the long-term budget positions of developed countries, a point that was made in the Nobel Laureate lecture of Professor James Buchanan. In this paper, we look at the costs and benefits that will be faced by different groups of voters as a result of state pension reform in the UK. It is shown that state pension systems will be very difficult to reform in ways that reduce government provision. However, an exception to this general rule is that reform by raising retirement ages may well be politically feasible. These results are in accordance, not just with theoretical work, but with other empirical work and practical observations

Transcriptional control of behaviour: engrailed knockout changes cockroach escape trajectories

The cerci of the cockroach are covered with identified sensory hairs that detect air movements. The sensory neurons that innervate these hairs synapse with giant interneurons in the terminal ganglion that in turn synapse with interneurons and leg motor neurons in thoracic ganglia. This neural circuit mediates the animal's escape behavior. The transcription factor Engrailed (En) is expressed only in the medially born sensory neurons, which suggested that it could work as a positional determinant of sensory neuron identity. Previously, we used double-stranded RNA interference to abolish En expression and found that the axonal arborization and synaptic outputs of an identified En-positive sensory neuron changed so that it came to resemble a nearby En-negative cell, which was itself unaffected. We thus demonstrated directly that En controls synaptic choice, as well as axon projections. Is escape behavior affected as a result of this miswiring? We showed recently that adult cockroaches keep each escape unpredictable by running along one of a set of preferred escape trajectories (ETs) at fixed angles from the direction of the threatening stimulus. The probability of selecting a particular ET is influenced by wind direction. In this present study, we show that early instar juvenile cockroaches also use those same ETs. En knock-out significantly perturbs the animals' perception of posterior wind, altering the choice of ETs to one more appropriate for anterior wind. This is the first time that it has been shown that knock-out of a transcription factor controlling synaptic connectivity can alter the perception of a directional stimulus

Comparative Monte Carlo Efficiency by Monte Carlo Analysis

We propose a modified power method for computing the subdominant eigenvalue $\lambda_2$ of a matrix or continuous operator. Here we focus on defining simple Monte Carlo methods for its application. The methods presented use random walkers of mixed signs to represent the subdominant eigenfuction. Accordingly, the methods must cancel these signs properly in order to sample this eigenfunction faithfully. We present a simple procedure to solve this sign problem and then test our Monte Carlo methods by computing the $\lambda_2$ of various Markov chain transition matrices. We first computed ${\lambda_2}$ for several one and two dimensional Ising models, which have a discrete phase space, and compared the relative efficiencies of the Metropolis and heat-bath algorithms as a function of temperature and applied magnetic field. Next, we computed $\lambda_2$ for a model of an interacting gas trapped by a harmonic potential, which has a mutidimensional continuous phase space, and studied the efficiency of the Metropolis algorithm as a function of temperature and the maximum allowable step size $\Delta$. Based on the $\lambda_2$ criterion, we found for the Ising models that small lattices appear to give an adequate picture of comparative efficiency and that the heat-bath algorithm is more efficient than the Metropolis algorithm only at low temperatures where both algorithms are inefficient. For the harmonic trap problem, we found that the traditional rule-of-thumb of adjusting $\Delta$ so the Metropolis acceptance rate is around 50% range is often sub-optimal. In general, as a function of temperature or $\Delta$, $\lambda_2$ for this model displayed trends defining optimal efficiency that the acceptance ratio does not. The cases studied also suggested that Monte Carlo simulations for a continuum model are likely more efficient than those for a discretized version of the model.Comment: 23 pages, 8 figure

The population biology and epidemiology of schistosome and geohelminth infections among schoolchildren in Tanzania

A study of helminth infections was undertaken among 3244 schoolchildren from 28 schools in Morogoro Rural District, Tanzania. Schistosoma haematobium was the most common infection, followed by hookworms, Ascaris lumbricoides, S. mansoni, and Trichuris trichiura. Infection prevalence of each species varied among schools and age groups, but not between sexes. There was no relationship between the prevalences of different infections among schools, except for a strong negative correlation between the prevalence of hookworm and S. mansoni infections. Within each age group, there was little excess overlap in the distribution of each infection; thus the number of multiple infections was low whereas the number of individuals harbouring at least one infection was relatively high. More children than expected carried infections of A. lumbricoides and S. mansoni, and the clustering effect increased with age. Only 2 schools had high overall infection prevalences of both geohelminths and schistosomes. Logistic regression analysis of morbidity and parasitological data indicated that individuals with multiple species infections were not at increased risk of morbidity (on a multiplicative scale) compared to individuals with single species infections. This was attributed in part to the low egg counts observed for each parasite species. The results implied little interaction between schistosome and geohelminth infections in the region, both in parasitological terms and in the context of their combined effects on health. Implications for the feasibility and benefits of combined control of geohelminths and schistosomes are discusse