SynthETC: A Statistical Model for Severe Winter Storm Hazard on Eastern North America

We develop, evaluate, and apply SynthETC, a statistical-stochastic model of winter extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) over eastern North America. SynthETC simulates the life cycle of ETCs from formation to termination, and it can be used to estimate the probability of extreme ETC events beyond the historical record. Two modes of climate variability are used as independent covariates: El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) Nino3.4 and the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We use SynthETC to estimate the annual occurrence rate over sites in eastern North America of intense ETC passage in different ENSO and NAO states. Positive NAO is associated with increased rates over the North Atlantic, while negative NAO is associated with decreased rates over the North Atlantic and increased rates over northern Quebec. Positive ENSO is associated with decreased rates over the North Atlantic, Ontario, and the Canadian Maritime, while negative ENSO is associated with increased rates over those regions, as well as the Great Lakes region

Letter fluency in 7-8-year-old children is related to the anterior, but not posterior, ventral occipito-temporal cortex during an auditory phonological task

Previous studies have shown that reading skill in 3- to 6-year-old children is related to the automatic activation of the posterior left ventral occipitotemporal cortex (vOT) during spoken language processing, whereas 8- to 15-year-old children and adult readers activate the anterior vOT. However, it is unknown how children who are between these two age groups automatically activate orthographic representations in vOT for spoken language. In the current study, we recruited 153 7- to 8-year-old children to fill the age gap from previous studies. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we measured children\u27s reading-related skills and brain activity during an auditory phonological task with both a small (i.e. onset) and a large (i.e. rhyme) grain size condition. We found that letter fluency, but not reading accuracy, was correlated with activation in the anterior vOT for the rhyme condition. There were no reading-related skill correlations for the posterior vOT or for activation during the onset condition in this age group. Our findings reveal that automatic activation in the anterior vOT during spoken language processing already occurs in higher skilled 7- to 8-year-old children. In addition, increases in naming automaticity is the primary determinant of the engagement of vOT during phonological awareness tasks

Evaluation of Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation in the North Atlantic Basin: An analysis of ERA-Interim, WRF, and two CMIP5 models

The representation of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) and a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is analyzed. This work considers the link between ETC precipitation and dynamical strength and tests if parameterized convection affects this link for ETCs in the North Atlantic Basin. Lagrangian cyclone tracks of ETCs in ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), the GISS and GFDL CMIP5 models, and WRF with two horizontal resolutions are utilized in a compositing analysis. The 20-km resolution WRF model generates stronger ETCs based on surface wind speed and cyclone precipitation. The GCMs and ERAI generate similar composite means and distributions for cyclone precipitation rates, but GCMs generate weaker cyclone surface winds than ERAI. The amount of cyclone precipitation generated by the convection scheme differs significantly across the datasets, with GISS generating the most, followed by ERAI and then GFDL. The models and reanalysis generate relatively more parameterized convective precipitation when the total cyclone-averaged precipitation is smaller. This is partially due to the contribution of parameterized convective precipitation occurring more often late in the ETC life cycle. For reanalysis and models, precipitation increases with both cyclone moisture and surface wind speed, and this is true if the contribution from the parameterized convection scheme is larger or not. This work shows that these different models generate similar total ETC precipitation despite large differences in the parameterized convection, and these differences do not cause unexpected behavior in ETC precipitation sensitivity to cyclone moisture or surface wind speed

Neural representations of phonology in temporal cortex scaffold longitudinal reading gains in 5- to 7-year-old children

© 2019 Elsevier Inc. The objective of this study was to investigate whether phonological processes measured through brain activation are crucial for the development of reading skill (i.e. scaffolding hypothesis) and/or whether learning to read words fine-tunes phonology in the brain (i.e. refinement hypothesis). We specifically looked at how different grain sizes in two brain regions implicated in phonological processing played a role in this bidirectional relation. According to the dual-stream model of speech processing and previous empirical studies, the posterior superior temporal gyrus (STG) appears to be a perceptual region associated with phonological representations, whereas the dorsal inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) appears to be an articulatory region that accesses phonological representations in STG during more difficult tasks. 36 children completed a reading test outside the scanner and an auditory phonological task which included both small (i.e. onset) and large (i.e. rhyme) grain size conditions inside the scanner when they were 5.5–6.5 years old (Time 1) and once again approximately 1.5 years later (Time 2). To study the scaffolding hypothesis, a regression analysis was carried out by entering brain activation in either STG or IFG for either small (onset \u3e perceptual) or large (rhyme \u3e perceptual) grain size phonological processing at T1 as the predictors and reading skill at T2 as the dependent measure, with several covariates of no interest included. To study the refinement hypothesis, the regression analysis included reading skill at T1 as the predictor and brain activation in either STG or IFG for either small or large grain size phonological processing at T2 as the dependent measures, with several covariates of no interest included. We found that only posterior STG, regardless of grain size, was predictive of reading gains. Parallel models with only behavioral accuracy were not significant. Taken together, our results suggest that the representational quality of phonology in temporal cortex is crucial for reading development. Moreover, our study provides neural evidence supporting the scaffolding hypothesis, suggesting that brain measures of phonology could be helpful in early identification of reading difficulties

Comparing hurricane and extratropical storm surge for the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast Coast of the United States for 1979–2013

This letter examines the magnitude, spatial footprint, and paths of hurricanes and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) that caused strong surge along the east coast of the US between 1979 and 2013. Lagrangian cyclone track information, for hurricanes and ETCs, is used to associate surge events with individual storms. First, hurricane influence is examined using ranked surged events per site. The fraction of hurricanes among storms associated with surge decreases from 20%–60% for the top 10 events to 10%–30% for the top 50 events, and a clear latitudinal gradient of hurricane influence emerges for larger sets of events. Secondly, surges on larger spatial domains are examined by focusing on storms that cause exceedance of the probabilistic 1-year surge return level at multiple stations. Results show that if the strongest events in terms of surge amplitude and spatial extent are considered, then hurricanes are most likely to create the hazards. However, when slightly less strong events that still impact multiple areas during the storm life cycle are considered, the relative importance of hurricanes shrinks as that of ETCs grows. Furthermore we find distinct paths for ETCs causing multisite surge at individual segments of the US east coast

Reading skill related to left ventral occipitotemporal cortex during a phonological awareness task in 5–6-year old children

The left ventral occipitotemporal cortex (vOT) is important in visual word recognition. Studies have shown that the left vOT is generally observed to be involved in spoken language processing in skilled readers, suggesting automatic access to corresponding orthographic information. However, little is known about where and how the left vOT is involved in the spoken language processing of young children with emerging reading ability. In order to answer this question, we examined the relation of reading ability in 5–6-year-old kindergarteners to the activation of vOT during an auditory phonological awareness task. Two experimental conditions: onset word pairs that shared the first phoneme and rhyme word pairs that shared the final biphone/triphone, were compared to allow a measurement of vOT\u27s activation to small (i.e., onsets) and large grain sizes (i.e., rhymes). We found that higher reading ability was associated with better accuracy of the onset, but not the rhyme, condition. In addition, higher reading ability was only associated with greater sensitivity in the posterior left vOT for the contrast of the onset versus rhyme condition. These results suggest that acquisition of reading results in greater specialization of the posterior vOT to smaller rather than larger grain sizes in young children

The paths of extratropical cyclones associated with wintertime high wind events in the Northeast United States

This study analyzes the association between wintertime high wind events (HWEs) in the northeast United States and extratropical cyclones. Sustained wind maxima in the Daily Summary Data from the National Climatic Data Center's Integrated Surface Database are analyzed for 1979-2012. For each station, a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is fit to the upper tail of the daily maximum wind speed data, and probabilistic return levels at 1, 3 and 5-years are derived. Wind events meeting the return level criteria are termed HWEs. The HWEs occurring on the same day are grouped into simultaneous wind exceedance dates, termed multi-station events. In a separate analysis, extratropical cyclones are tracked using the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. The multi-station events are associated with the extratropical cyclone tracks based on cyclone proximity on the day of the event. The multi-station wind events are found to be most often associated with cyclones travelling from southwest to northeast, originating west of the Appalachian Mountains. To quantify the relative frequency of the strong wind associated cyclones, the full set of northeastern cyclone tracks are separated based on their path, using a crosshairs algorithm designed for this region. The tracks separate into an evenly distributed set of four pathways approaching the northeast US: from the due west, from the southwest, nor'easters, and storms starting off coast, north of the Carolinas. Using the frequency of the tracks in each of the pathways, it is shown that the storms associated with multi-station wind events are most likely to approach the northeast US from the southwest

Diagnosing Warm Frontal Cloud Formation in a GCM: A Novel Approach Using Conditional Subsetting

This study analyzes characteristics of clouds and vertical motion across extratropical cyclone warm fronts in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model. The validity of the modeled clouds is assessed using a combination of satellite observations from CloudSat, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. The analysis focuses on developing cyclones, to test the model's ability to generate their initial structure. To begin, the extratropical cyclones and their warm fronts are objectively identified and cyclone-local fields are mapped into a vertical transect centered on the surface warm front. To further isolate specific physics, the cyclones are separated using conditional subsetting based on additional cyclone-local variables, and the differences between the subset means are analyzed. Conditional subsets are created based on 1) the transect clouds and 2) vertical motion; 3) the strength of the temperature gradient along the warm front, as well as the storm-local 4) wind speed and 5) precipitable water (PW). The analysis shows that the model does not generate enough frontal cloud, especially at low altitude. The subsetting results reveal that, compared to the observations, the model exhibits a decoupling between cloud formation at high and low altitudes across warm fronts and a weak sensitivity to moisture. These issues are caused in part by the parameterized convection and assumptions in the stratiform cloud scheme that are valid in the subtropics. On the other hand, the model generates proper covariability of low-altitude vertical motion and cloud at the warm front and a joint dependence of cloudiness on wind and PW

Spatial patterns and intensity of the surface storm tracks in CMIP5 models

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 4965-4981, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0228.1.To improve the understanding of storm tracks and western boundary current (WBC) interactions, surface storm tracks in 12 CMIP5 models are examined against ERA-Interim. All models capture an equatorward displacement toward the WBCs in the locations of the surface storm tracks’ maxima relative to those at 850 hPa. An estimated storm-track metric is developed to analyze the location of the surface storm track. It shows that the equatorward shift is influenced by both the lower-tropospheric instability and the baroclinicity. Basin-scale spatial correlations between models and ERA-Interim for the storm tracks, near-surface stability, SST gradient, and baroclinicity are calculated to test the ability of the GCMs’ match reanalysis. An intermodel comparison of the spatial correlations suggests that differences (relative to ERA-Interim) in the position of the storm track aloft have the strongest influence on differences in the surface storm-track position. However, in the North Atlantic, biases in the surface storm track north of the Gulf Stream are related to biases in the SST. An analysis of the strength of the storm tracks shows that most models generate a weaker storm track at the surface than 850 hPa, consistent with observations, although some outliers are found. A linear relationship exists among the models between storm-track amplitudes at 500 and 850 hPa, but not between 850 hPa and the surface. In total, the work reveals a dual role in forcing the surface storm track from aloft and from the ocean surface in CMIP5 models, with the atmosphere having the larger relative influence.JFB was partially supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections program (Grant NA15OAR4310094). Y-OK was supported by NSF Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Science Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program (AGS-1355339), NASA Physical Oceanography Program (NNX13AM59G), and DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (DE-SC0014433). RJS was supported by DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research (DE-SC0006743) and NSF Directorate for Geosciences Division of Ocean Sciences (1419584),2017-10-0

Multiple Satellite Observations of Cloud Cover in Extratropical Cyclones

Using cloud observations from NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer, and CloudSat-CALIPSO, composites of cloud fraction in southern and northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones are obtained for cold and warm seasons between 2006 and 2010, to assess differences between these three data sets, and between summer and winter cyclones. In both hemispheres and seasons, over the open ocean, the cyclone-centered cloud fraction composites agree within 5% across the three data sets, but behind the cold fronts, or over sea ice and land, the differences are much larger. To supplement the data set comparison and learn more about the cyclones, we also examine the differences in cloud fraction between cold and warm season for each data set. The difference in cloud fraction between cold and warm season southern hemisphere cyclones is small for all three data sets, but of the same order of magnitude as the differences between the data sets. The cold-warm season contrast in northern hemisphere cyclone cloud fractions is similar for all three data sets: in the warm sector, the cold season cloud fractions are lower close to the low, but larger on the equator edge than their warm season counterparts. This seasonal contrast in cloud fraction within the cyclones warm sector seems to be related to the seasonal differences in moisture flux within the cyclones. Our analysis suggests that the three different data sets can all be used confidently when studying the warm sector and warm frontal zone of extratropical cyclones but caution should be exerted when studying clouds in the cold sector