Returns predictability of Malaysian bank stocks : Evidence and implications

The main objective of this study is to address the question of whether stock prices follow random walk all the time. Using the samples of four Malaysian bank stocks- Hong Leong Bank, Malayan Banking, Public Bank and Southern Bank, coupled with the Hinich and Patterson (1995) windowed-testing procedure, the results show that the series under study follow a random walk for long periods of time, only to be interspersed with brief periods of strong linear and non-linear dependency structures. Unlike previous studies, this paper provides a different perspective on the subject of random walk. In addition to that, several important implications drawn from the findings are also provided in the paper

Returns Predictability of Malaysian Bank Stocks: Evidence and Implications

The main objective of this study is to address the question of whether stock prices follow random walk all the time. Using the samples of four Malaysian bank stocks- Hong Leong Bank, Malayan Banking, Public Bank and Southern Bank, coupled with the Hinich and Patterson (1995) windowed-testing procedure, the results show that the series under study follow a random walk for long periods of time, only to be interspersed with brief periods of strong linear and non-linear dependency structures. Unlike previous studies, this paper provides a different perspective on the subject of random walk. In addition to that, several important implications drawn from the findings are also provided in the paper.

Tracking the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying SIR model

The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model offers the simplest framework to study transmission dynamics of COVID-19, however, it does not factor in its early depleting trend observed during a lockdown. We modified the SIR model to specifically simulate the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to better predict its temporal trend in Malaysia. The classical SIR model was fitted to observed total (I total), active (I) and removed (R) cases of COVID-19 before lockdown to estimate the basic reproduction number. Next, the model was modified with a partial time-varying force of infection, given by a proportionally depleting transmission coefficient, βt and a fractional term, z. The modified SIR model was then fitted to observed data over 6 weeks during the lockdown. Model fitting and projection were validated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). The transmission dynamics of COVID-19 was interrupted immediately by the lockdown. The modified SIR model projected the depleting temporal trends with lowest MAPE for I total, followed by I, I daily and R. During lockdown, the dynamics of COVID-19 depleted at a rate of 4.7% each day with a decreased capacity of 40%. For 7-day and 14-day projections, the modified SIR model accurately predicted I total, I and R. The depleting transmission dynamics for COVID-19 during lockdown can be accurately captured by time-varying SIR model. Projection generated based on observed data is useful for future planning and control of COVID-19

Sustaining effective COVID-19 control in Malaysia through large-scale vaccination

Introduction: As of 3rd June 2021, Malaysia is experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. In response, the federal government has implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under a series of Movement Control Orders and, more recently, a vaccination campaign to regain epidemic control. In this study, we assessed the potential for the vaccination campaign to control the epidemic in Malaysia and four high-burden regions of interest, under various public health response scenarios. Methods: A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental model was developed that included two sequential incubation and infectious periods, with stratification by clinical state. The model was further stratified by age and incorporated population mobility to capture NPIs and micro-distancing (behaviour changes not captured through population mobility). Emerging variants of concern (VoC) were included as an additional strain competing with the existing wild-type strain. Several scenarios that included different vaccination strategies (i.e. vaccines that reduce disease severity and/or prevent infection, vaccination coverage) and mobility restrictions were implemented. Results: The national model and the regional models all fit well to notification data but underestimated ICU occupancy and deaths in recent weeks, which may be attributable to increased severity of VoC or saturation of case detection. However, the true case detection proportion showed wide credible intervals, highlighting incomplete understanding of the true epidemic size. The scenario projections suggested that under current vaccination rates complete relaxation of all NPIs would trigger a major epidemic. The results emphasise the importance of micro-distancing, maintaining mobility restrictions during vaccination roll-out and accelerating the pace of vaccination for future control. Malaysia is particularly susceptible to a major COVID-19 resurgence resulting from its limited population immunity due to the country's historical success in maintaining control throughout much of 2020

COVID-19 collaborative modelling for policy response in the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam

Mathematical models that capture COVID-19 dynamics have supported public health responses and policy development since the beginning of the pandemic, yet there is limited discourse to describe features of an optimal modelling platform to support policy decisions or how modellers and policy makers have engaged with each other. Here, we outline how we used a modelling software platform to support public health decision making for the COVID-19 response in the Western Pacific Region (WPR) countries of the Philippines, Malaysia and Viet Nam. This perspective describes an approach to support evidence-based public health decisions and policy, which may help inform other responses to similar outbreak events. The platform we describe formed the basis for one of the inaugural World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific (WPRO) Innovation Challenge awards, and was backed by collaboration between epidemiological modellers, those providing public health advice, and policy makers

Survival analysis in acute myeloid leukemia: A retrospective cohort study and simulation study of small events per independent variable / Law Kian Boon

Intensive chemotherapy for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is used in both induction and consolidation treatments. The combination of fludarabine, high dose cytarabine and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (FLAG) has been proven effective and safe as an induction treatment for refractory and poor risk AML, but not as a consolidation treatment especially in older AML patients. Hence, a retrospective cohort study was conducted to investigate the role of the FLAG regimen as consolidation treatment in older AML patients. Survival data of 41 eligible older patients were analyzed by using Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test and Cox model. The results showed that patients consolidated with the FLAG regimen had a longer overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) when compared to non-FLAG regimens. The primary treatment variable (FLAG) was strongly associated with the survival outcomes with statistically different OS (log-rank, p = 0.0025) and DFS (log-rank, p = 0.0026). However, the regression analysis was performed at low events per independent variable (EPV) condition. The validity of Cox coefficient estimate requires at least 10 to 20 EPV, which can be difficult to achieve in a small study. Therefore, a simulation study was performed to assess the performance of Cox coefficient estimate for the primary treatment variable at low EPV spectrum. Our results showed that 3 and 4 EPV were associated with highest level of bias and disparity in accuracy, precision and statistical properties. At 5 to 6 EPV, the performance of Cox model started to gain stability. Above 6 EPV, increasing the number of events was less likely to improve the overall performance of the Cox model. The FLAG regimen should be used as part of consolidation for AML as the regimen improved both OS and DFS among older AML patients. The EPV rule has exceeded the number of outcome events required by a variable of strong association to the survival outcomes

Catquest-9SF questionnaire: validation of Malay and Chinese-language versions using Rasch analysis

Abstract Background Catquest questionnaire was originally developed in Swedish to measure patients’ self-assessed visual function to evaluate the benefit of cataract surgery. The result of the Rasch analysis leading to the creation of the nine-item short form of Catquest, (Catquest-9SF), and it had been translated and validated in English. The aim is therefore to evaluate the translated Catquest-9SF questionnaire in Malay and Chinese (Mandarin) language version for measuring patient-reported visual function among cataract population in Malaysia. Methods The English version of Catquest-9SF questionnaire was translated and back translated into Malay and Chinese languages. The Malay and Chinese translated versions were self-administered by 236 and 202 pre-operative patients drawn from a cataract surgery waiting list, respectively. The translated Catquest-9SF data and its four response options were assessed for fit to the Rasch model. Results The Catquest-9SF performed well in the Malay and Chinese translated versions fulfilling all criteria for valid measurement, as demonstrated by Rasch analysis. Both versions of questionnaire had ordered response thresholds, with a good person separation (Malay 2.84; and Chinese 2.59) and patient separation reliability (Malay 0.89; Chinese 0.87). Targeting was 0.30 and −0.11 logits in Malay and Chinese versions respectively, indicating that the item difficulty was well suited to the visual abilities of the patients. All items fit a single overall construct (Malay infit range 0.85–1.26, outfit range 0.73–1.13; Chinese infit range 0.80–1.51, outfit range 0.71–1.36), unidimensional by principal components analysis, and was free of Differential Item Functioning (DIF). Conclusions These results support the good overall functioning of the Catquest-9SF in patients with cataract. The translated questionnaire to Malay and Chinese-language versions are reliable and valid in measuring visual disability outcomes in the Malaysian cataract population

The epidemiology and clinical characteristics of myeloproliferative neoplasms in Malaysia

Abstract Background The evolution of molecular studies in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) has enlightened us the understanding of this complex disease consisting of polycythaemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET) and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). The epidemiology is well described in the western world but not in Asian countries like Malaysia. Materials and methods This retrospective national registry of MPN was conducted from year 2009 to 2015 in Malaysia. Results A total of 1010 patients were registered over a period of 5 years. The mean age was 54 years with male predominance. The ethnic distribution revealed that Chinese had a relatively high weighted incidence proportion (43.2%), followed by Indian (23.8%), Malay (15.8%) and other ethnic groups (17.2%). The types of MPN reported were 40.4% of ET (n = 408), 38.1% of PV (n = 385), 9.2% of PMF (n = 93), 3.1% of hypereosinophilic syndrome (HES) (n = 31) and 7.9% of unclassifiable MPN (MPN-U) (n = 80). Splenomegaly was only palpable clinically in 32.2% of patients. The positive JAK2 V617F mutation was present in 644 patients with 46.6% in PV, 36.0% in ET, 9.0% in PMF, and 7.4% in MPN-U, and had significantly lower haemoglobin (p < 0.001), haematocrit (p < 0.001) and white blood cells (WBC) (p < 0.001) than those with negative mutation. Significant differences in platelet and WBC count were detected in ethnic groups and MPN sub-types. There were more arterial thrombosis events seen in those with JAK2 V617F mutation as compared to venous thrombosis events (23.1% vs 4.4%). The bleeding rate was only 6.6%. Among the risk factors, previous thrombosis, old age (≥ 60 years) and hypertension were significantly correlated to positive JAK2 V617F mutation. The arterial thrombosis event is associated with higher presenting HB, HCT and PLT while the bleeding event is associated with lower presenting HB, HCT but higher PLT. The presence of JAK2 V617F mutation is associated with higher risk of arterial thrombosis. Conclusion Chinese ethnicity is associated with higher rates of MPN. The history of thrombosis, age ≥ 60 years and hypertension are risk factors that can be correlated to JAK2 V617F mutation. This study is instrumental for policy makers to ensure preventive strategies can be implemented in future