A study on the possible merits of using symptomatic cases to trace the development of the COVID-19 pandemic

In a recent work we introduced a novel method to compute the effective reproduction number $R_t$ and we applied it to describe the development of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. The study is based on the number of daily positive swabs as reported by the Italian Dipartimento di Protezione Civile. Recently, the Italian Istituto Superiore di Sanit\`a made available the data relative of the symptomatic cases, where the reporting date is the date of beginning of symptoms instead of the date of the reporting of the positive swab. In this paper we will discuss merits and drawbacks of this data, quantitatively comparing the quality of the pandemic indicators computed with the two samples

A simplified estimate of the Effective Reproduction Number RtR_t using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data

A simplified method to compute $R_t$, the Effective Reproduction Number, is presented. The method relates the value of $R_t$ to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition $R_t = 1$ corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution.Comment: Submitted to: The European Physical Journal Plus. Revised version according to reviewer's comment

A statistical analysis of death rates in Italy for the years 2015-2020 and a comparison with the casualties reported for the COVID-19 pandemic

We analyze the data about casualties in Italy in the period 01/01/2015 to 30/09/2020 released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). The data exhibit a clear sinusoidal behavior, whose fit allows for a robust subtraction of the baseline trend of casualties in Italy, with a surplus of mortality in correspondence to the flu epidemics in winter and to the hottest periods in summer. While these peaks are symmetric in shape, the peak in coincidence with the COVID-19 pandemics is asymmetric and more pronounced. We fit the former with a Gaussian function and the latter with a Gompertz function, in order to quantify number of casualties, the duration and the position of all causes of excess deaths. The overall quality of the fit to the data turns out to be very good. We discuss the trend of casualties in Italy by different classes of ages and for the different genders. We finally compare the data-subtracted casualties as reported by ISTAT with those reported by the Italian Department for Civil Protection (DPC) relative to the deaths directly attributed to COVID-19, and we discuss the differences.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figure

Does Cytokine-Release Syndrome Induced by CAR T-Cell Treatment Have an Impact on the Pharmacokinetics of Meropenem and Piperacillin/Tazobactam in Patients with Hematological Malignancies? Findings from an Observational Case-Control Study

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy is a promising approach for some relapse/refractory hematological B-cell malignancies; however, in most patients, cytokine release syndrome (CRS) may occur. CRS is associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) that may affect the pharmacokinetics of some beta-lactams. The aim of this study was to assess whether the pharmacokinetics of meropenem and piperacillin may be affected by CAR T-cell treatment. The study included CAR T-cell treated patients (cases) and oncohematological patients (controls), who were administered 24-h continuous infusion (CI) meropenem or piperacillin/tazobactam, optimized by therapeutic drug monitoring, over a 2-year period. Patient data were retrospectively retrieved and matched on a 1:2 ratio. Beta-lactam clearance (CL) was calculated as CL = daily dose/infusion rate. A total of 38 cases (of whom 14 and 24 were treated with meropenem and piperacillin/tazobactam, respectively) was matched with 76 controls. CRS occurred in 85.7% (12/14) and 95.8% (23/24) of patients treated with meropenem and piperacillin/tazobactam, respectively. CRS-induced AKI was observed in only 1 patient. CL did not differ between cases and controls for both meropenem (11.1 vs. 11.7 L/h, p = 0.835) and piperacillin (14.0 vs. 10.4 L/h, p = 0.074). Our findings suggest that 24-h CI meropenem and piperacillin dosages should not be reduced a priori in CAR T-cell patients experiencing CRS

Intrabone transplant provides full stemness of cord blood stem cells with fast hematopoietic recovery and low GVHD rate: results from a prospective study

Umbilical Cord Blood (UCB) represents a valid option for patients with hematopoietic malignancies lacking an HLA matched donor. To overcome the limitation of the low stem cell dose of UCB, the intrabone (IB) route has been proposed. We report the results of a prospective study on a poor-prognosis cohort of 23 patients receiving intrabone single UCB transplant (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00886522). Cumulative incidence of hematological recovery at day 90 was 82 ± 9% (ANC > 0.5 × 109/L) and 70 ± 10% (platelet > 50 × 109/L) and correlated with CD34 + cells in the graft. NRM was 20 ±  9%. No severe aGVHD and only one extensive cGVHD occurred, with fast immune reconstitution. To test the hypothesis that the direct IB injection could affect the expression of stem cells regulatory pathways, CD34 + cells from BM aspirates at day + 10, + 20, + 30, processed in hypoxic conditions mimicking the BM-microenvironment (7%pO2), were studied for the expression of c-Mpl, Notch1 and CXCR4. We found that the expression of c-Mpl in CD34 + cells at day + 10 significantly correlated with hematological recovery. In conclusion, IB-UCB transplant success is associated with low incidence of GVHD and high-speed platelet recovery; intrabone route may preserve full hematopoietic stemness by direct delivery of UCB stem cells into the hypoxic HSC niche

Pre-transplant CD69+ extracellular vesicles are negatively correlated with active ATLG serum levels and associate with the onset of GVHD in allogeneic HSCT patients

Graft versus host disease (GVHD) is a major complication of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Rabbit anti-T lymphocyte globulin (ATLG) in addition to calcineurin inhibitors and antimetabolites is a suitable strategy to prevent GVHD in several transplant settings. Randomized studies already demonstrated its efficacy in terms of GVHD prevention, although the effect on relapse remains the major concern for a wider use. Tailoring of ATLG dose on host characteristics is expected to minimize its side effects (immunological reconstitution, relapse, and infections). Here, day -6 to day +15 pharmacokinetics of active ATLG serum level was first assayed in an explorative cohort of 23 patients by testing the ability of the polyclonal serum to bind antigens on human leukocytes. Significantly lower levels of serum active ATLG were found in the patients who developed GVHD (ATLG_AUC(CD45): 241.52 +/- 152.16 vs. 766.63 +/- 283.52 (mu g*day)/ml, p = 1.46e(-5)). Consistent results were obtained when the ATLG binding capacity was assessed on CD3+ and CD3+/CD4+ T lymphocytes (ATLG_AUC(CD3): 335.83 +/- 208.15 vs. 903.54 +/- 378.78 (mu g*day)/ml, p = 1.92e(-4); ATLG_AUC(CD4): 317.75 +/- 170.70 vs. 910.54 +/- 353.35 (mu g*day)/ml, p = 3.78e(-5). Concomitantly, at pre-infusion time points, increased concentrations of CD69+ extracellular vesicles (EVs) were found in patients who developed GVHD (mean fold 9.01 +/- 1.33; p = 2.12e(-5)). Consistent results were obtained in a validation cohort of 12 additional ATLG-treated HSCT patients. Serum CD69+ EVs were mainly represented in the nano (i.e. 100 nm in diameter) EV compartment and expressed the leukocyte marker CD45, the EV markers CD9 and CD63, and CD103, a marker of tissue-resident memory T cells. The latter are expected to set up a host pro-inflammatory cell compartment that can survive in the recipient for years after conditioning regimen and contribute to GVHD pathogenesis. In summary, high levels of CD69+ EVs are significantly correlated with an increased risk of GVHD, and they may be proposed as a tool to tailor ATLG dose for personalized GVHD prevention

Case report: Senescence as mechanism of resistance to Pembrolizumab in a Lymphoma patient who failed CD19-Targeted CAR-T cell therapy

BackgroundT cells engineered to target CD19 antigen on neoplastic B cells represent the most striking example of CAR-T cell therapy. The success rate of this therapy is affected by several limitations: target antigen loss, and/or acquisition of a senescent/exhausted phenotype by CAR and non-CAR T cells. Case presentationWe report on a patient affected by refractory Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma who was resistant to CAR T-cell therapy and to two cycles post CAR-T of pembrolizumab (PBZ) due to the evolution into a B-cell Hodgkin-like lymphoma. Owing to the CD30 expression and the Hodgkin-like phenotype, the patient was ultimately treated with Brentuximab-Vedotin and finally underwent remission. Upon PBZ treatment, 100% of circulating CAR-T+ cells showed a persistent CD8(+) senescent/exhausted phenotype, while an increase in the percentage of senescent cells was found in the non-CAR CD8(+) T cells compartment. ConclusionsPBZ is not able to reinvigorate exhausted CAR(+) T cells and to confer durable clinical response. We hypothesize that the phenomenon is due to the senescent phenotype of CAR(+) T cells, which did not allow PBZ-induced reactivation and proliferative rescue. The phenomenon, together with the loss of CAR-T target CD19 and the shift of non-CAR CD8(+) T cells towards a senescent phenotype likely contributed to set up an immune landscape with poor antitumor capacity

Long-Term Outcome After Adoptive Immunotherapy With Natural Killer Cells: Alloreactive NK Cell Dose Still Matters

Recently, many reports were published supporting the clinical use of adoptivelytransferred natural killer (NK) cells as a therapeutic tool against cancer, including acutemyeloid leukemia (AML). Our group demonstrated promising clinical response usingadoptive immunotherapy with donor-derived alloreactive KIR-ligand-mismatched NK cellsin AML patients. Moreover, the antileukemic effect was correlated with the dose of infusedalloreactive NK cells (“functional NK cell dose”). Herein, we update the results of ourprevious study on a cohort of adult AML patients (median age at enrollment 64) infirstmorphological complete remission (CR), not eligible for allogeneic stem celltransplantation. After an extended median follow-up of 55.5 months, 8/16 evaluablepatients (50%) are still off-therapy and alive disease-free. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) are related with the dose of infused alloreactive NK cells (≥2×105/kg