Multivariate volatility modelling in modern finance

Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 100-101).The aim of the study is to ascertain whether the information gained from the more complicated multivariate matrix decomposition models can be used to better forecast the covariance matrix and produce a Value at Risk estimate which more appropriately describes fat-tailed financial time-series

HCI and Design Research Education

This paper describes the latest insights in HCI education inspired and informed by the creative disciplines, how education is implemented, and how it could be fed back into the artistic fields. It contains examples, contrasts different methods, and discusses and concludes the findings for HCI education in general. A course on HCI is described which is supported by a creative approach, related to art, architecture and music. Experiences are described in of HCI tools and insights such as structured design methods, interaction frameworks and interface design heuristics relevant to the arts fields

Towards a multimodal interaction space: Categorisation and applications

Based on many experiences of developing interactive systems by the authors, a framework for the description and analysis of interaction has been developed. The dimensions of this multimodal interaction space have been identified as sensory modalities, modes and levels of interaction. To illustrate and validate this framework, development of multimodal interaction styles is carried out and interactions in the real world are studied, going from theory to practice and back again. The paper describes the framework and two recent projects, one in the field of interactive architecture and another in the field of multimodal HCI research. Both projects use multiple modalities for interaction, particularly movement based interaction styles. © Springer-Verlag London Limited 2007

REHAP Balance Tiles: A modular system supporting balance rehabilitation

© 2015 ICST. This paper describes the design, development, implementation and user evaluation of an interactive modular tile system, aimed to support balance rehabilitation of patients recovering from a stroke. The REHAP Balance Tiles system is an innovative tool, which has been developed in close collaboration with therapists and patients in stroke units of health rehabilitation institutes in Sydney, Australia and Eindhoven, the Netherlands. The system was designed to allow therapists to tailor exercises for each patient by changing the physical configuration of tiles. We report a user evaluation in a rehabilitation clinic, which lasted five weeks. Results indicate that the tiles can fulfill their envisioned purpose. They are received well by therapists, meeting requirements for ease of use, motivational feedback, modularity and flexibility

Trainflow

Interactive Video Installatio

Shared reading of children's interactive picture books

We report on a study of children and parents shared reading of interactive printed books. We investigated the differences between books with interactive features and books with expressive typography in order to evaluate which features within a book encouraged interaction between the reading participants and the book. 11 parent and child groups took part in the study that involved three observed reading sessions. From our observations we offer suggestions for the development of books and eBooks to encourage shared reading practices

Causal Consistency of Structural Equation Models

Complex systems can be modelled at various levels of detail. Ideally, causal models of the same system should be consistent with one another in the sense that they agree in their predictions of the effects of interventions. We formalise this notion of consistency in the case of Structural Equation Models (SEMs) by introducing exact transformations between SEMs. This provides a general language to consider, for instance, the different levels of description in the following three scenarios: (a) models with large numbers of variables versus models in which the `irrelevant' or unobservable variables have been marginalised out; (b) micro-level models versus macro-level models in which the macro-variables are aggregate features of the micro-variables; (c) dynamical time series models versus models of their stationary behaviour. Our analysis stresses the importance of well specified interventions in the causal modelling process and sheds light on the interpretation of cyclic SEMs.Comment: equal contribution between Rubenstein and Weichwald; accepted manuscrip

Above-ground biomass and productivity in a rain forest of eastern South America

Abstract: The dynamics of tropical forest woody plants was studied at the Nouragues Field Station, central French Guiana. Stem density, basal area, above-ground biomass and above-ground net primary productivity, including the contribution of litterfall, were estimated from two large permanent census plots of 12 and 10 ha, established on contrasting soil types, and censused twice, first in 1992¿1994, then again in 2000¿2002. Mean stem density was 512 stems ha¿1 and basal area, 30m2 ha¿1. Stem mortality rate ranged between 1.51% and 2.06% y¿1. In both plots, stem density decreased over the study period. Using a correlation between wood density and wood hardness directly measured by a Pilodyn wood tester,we found that the mean wood densitywas 0.63 g cm¿3, 12% smaller than the mean of wood density estimated from the literature values for the species occurring in our plot. Above-ground biomass ranged from 356 to 398Mgha¿1 (oven-dry mass), and it increased over the census period. Leaf biomass was 6.47Mg ha¿1. Our total estimate of aboveground net primary productivity was 8.81 MgC ha¿1 y¿1 (in carbon units), not accounting for loss to herbivory, branchfalls, or biogenic volatile organic compounds, whichmay altogether account for an additional 1MgC ha¿1 y¿1. Coarse wood productivity (stem growth plus recruitment) contributed to 4.16 MgC ha¿1 y¿1. Litterfall contributed to 4.65MgC ha¿1 y¿1 with 3.16 MgC ha¿1 y¿1 due to leaves, 1.10 MgC ha¿1 y¿1 to twigs, and 0.39MgC ha¿1 y¿1 to fruits and flowers. The increase in above-ground biomass for both trees and lianas is consistentwith the hypothesis of a shift in the functioning of Amazonian rain forests driven by environmental changes, although alternative hypotheses such as a recovery from past disturbances cannot be ruled out at our site, as suggested by the observed decrease in stem density. Key Words: above-ground biomass, carbon, French Guiana, net primary productivity, tropical fores