Empirical ground-motion models for point- and extended-source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe and the Middle East

This article presents the latest generation of ground-motion models for the prediction of elastic response (pseudo-) spectral accelerations, as well as peak ground acceleration and velocity, derived using pan-European databases. The models present a number of novelties with respect to previous generations of models (Ambraseys et al. in Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 25:371–400, 1996, Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53, 2005; Bommer et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 1:171–203, 2003; Akkar and Bommer in Seismol Res Lett 81:195–206, 2010), namely: inclusion of a nonlinear site amplification function that is a function of V S30 and reference peak ground acceleration on rock; extension of the magnitude range of applicability of the model down to M w 4; extension of the distance range of applicability out to 200 km; extension to shorter and longer periods (down to 0.01 s and up to 4 s); and consistent models for both point-source (epicentral, R epi, and hypocentral distance, R hyp) and finite-fault (distance to the surface projection of the rupture, R JB) distance metrics. In addition, data from more than 1.5 times as many earthquakes, compared to previous pan-European models, have been used, leading to regressions based on approximately twice as many records in total. The metadata of these records have been carefully compiled and reappraised in recent European projects. These improvements lead to more robust ground-motion prediction equations than have previously been published for shallow (focal depths less than 30 km) crustal earthquakes in Europe and the Middle East. We conclude with suggestions for the application of the equations to seismic hazard assessments in Europe and the Middle East within a logic-tree framework to capture epistemic uncertainty

Sex Differences on Elementary Cognitive Tasks Despite No Differences on the Wonderlic Personnel Test

Whether males and females differ in general mental ability (GMA) remains an open question. Complicating the issue is that standardized IQ tests are constructed to minimize sex differences. We propose a potential solution whereby GMA is measured via performance on elementary cognitive tasks (ECTs). ECTs assess basic information-processing ability, yet correlate moderately highly with GMA. Toward this end, we had male (n = 218) and female (n = 226) undergraduates complete the Wonderlic Personnel Test (WPT), and two ECTs: inspection time (IT) and reaction time (RT). The sex difference on the WPT was non-significant (d = .17), but small differences favoring males existed for IT (d = .34), RT (d = .26), the standard deviation of RT (d = .30), and an ECT factor score (d = .38). Unlike standardized IQ tests, ECTs may be a viable research tool to help clarify and illuminate the nature of sex differences on GMA

Imbibition in mesoporous silica: rheological concepts and experiments on water and a liquid crystal

We present, along with some fundamental concepts regarding imbibition of liquids in porous hosts, an experimental, gravimetric study on the capillarity-driven invasion dynamics of water and of the rod-like liquid crystal octyloxycyanobiphenyl (8OCB) in networks of pores a few nanometers across in monolithic silica glass (Vycor). We observe, in agreement with theoretical predictions, square root of time invasion dynamics and a sticky velocity boundary condition for both liquids investigated. Temperature-dependent spontaneous imbibition experiments on 8OCB reveal the existence of a paranematic phase due to the molecular alignment induced by the pore walls even at temperatures well beyond the clearing point. The ever present velocity gradient in the pores is likely to further enhance this ordering phenomenon and prevent any layering in molecular stacks, eventually resulting in a suppression of the smectic phase in favor of the nematic phase.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figure

Autonomous decision-making against induced seismicity in deep fluid injections

The rise in the frequency of anthropogenic earthquakes due to deep fluid injections is posing serious economic, societal, and legal challenges to geo-energy and waste-disposal projects. We propose an actuarial approach to mitigate this risk, first by defining an autonomous decision-making process based on an adaptive traffic light system (ATLS) to stop risky injections, and second by quantifying a "cost of public safety" based on the probability of an injection-well being abandoned. The ATLS underlying statistical model is first confirmed to be representative of injection-induced seismicity, with examples taken from past reservoir stimulation experiments (mostly from Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS). Then the decision strategy is formalized: Being integrable, the model yields a closed-form ATLS solution that maps a risk-based safety standard or norm to an earthquake magnitude not to exceed during stimulation. Finally, the EGS levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is reformulated in terms of null expectation, with the cost of abandoned injection-well implemented. We find that the price increase to mitigate the increased seismic risk in populated areas can counterbalance the heat credit. However this "public safety cost" disappears if buildings are based on earthquake-resistant designs or if a more relaxed risk safety standard or norm is chosen.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, conference (International Symposium on Energy Geotechnics, 26-28 September 2018, Lausanne, Switzerland

Simulations for the development of a ground motion model for induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field, the Netherlands

We present simulations performed for the development of a ground motion model for induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field. The largest recorded event, with M3.5, occurred in 2012 and, more recently, a M3.4 event in 2018 led to recorded ground accelerations exceeding 0.1 g. As part of an extensive hazard and risk study, it has been necessary to predict ground motions for scenario earthquakes up to M7. In order to achieve this, while accounting for the unique local geology, a range of simulations have been performed using both stochastic and full-waveform finite-difference simulations. Due to frequency limitations and lack of empirical calibration of the latter approach, input simulations for the ground motion model used in the hazard and risk analyses have been performed with a finite-fault stochastic method. However, in parallel, extensive studies using the finite-difference simulations have guided inputs and modelling considerations for these simulations. Three approaches are used: (1) the finite-fault stochastic method, (2) elastic point- and (3) finite-source 3D finite-difference simulations. We present a summary of the methods and their synthesis, including both amplitudes and durations within the context of the hazard and risk model. A unique form of wave-propagation with strong lateral focusing and defocusing is evident in both peak amplitudes and durations. The results clearly demonstrate the need for a locally derived ground motion model and the potential for reduction in aleatory variability in moving toward a path-specific fully non-ergodic model

Synthesis of accelerograms compatible with the Chinese GB 50011-2001 design spectrum via harmonic wavelets: artificial and historic records

A versatile approach is employed to generate artificial accelerograms which satisfy the compatibility criteria prescribed by the Chinese aseismic code provisions GB 50011-2001. In particular, a frequency dependent peak factor derived by means of appropriate Monte Carlo analyses is introduced to relate the GB 50011-2001 design spectrum to a parametrically defined evolutionary power spectrum (EPS). Special attention is given to the definition of the frequency content of the EPS in order to accommodate the mathematical form of the aforementioned design spectrum. Further, a one-to-one relationship is established between the parameter controlling the time-varying intensity of the EPS and the effective strong ground motion duration. Subsequently, an efficient auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) filtering technique is utilized to generate ensembles of non-stationary artificial accelerograms whose average response spectrum is in a close agreement with the considered design spectrum. Furthermore, a harmonic wavelet based iterative scheme is adopted to modify these artificial signals so that a close matching of the signals’ response spectra with the GB 50011-2001 design spectrum is achieved on an individual basis. This is also done for field recorded accelerograms pertaining to the May, 2008 Wenchuan seismic event. In the process, zero-phase high-pass filtering is performed to accomplish proper baseline correction of the acquired spectrum compatible artificial and field accelerograms. Numerical results are given in a tabulated format to expedite their use in practice

Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Quantized Majorana conductance

Majorana zero-modes hold great promise for topological quantum computing. Tunnelling spectroscopy in electrical transport is the primary tool to identify the presence of Majorana zero-modes, for instance as a zero-bias peak (ZBP) in differential-conductance. The Majorana ZBP-height is predicted to be quantized at the universal conductance value of 2e2/h at zero temperature. Interestingly, this quantization is a direct consequence of the famous Majorana symmetry, 'particle equals antiparticle'. The Majorana symmetry protects the quantization against disorder, interactions, and variations in the tunnel coupling. Previous experiments, however, have shown ZBPs much smaller than 2e2/h, with a recent observation of a peak-height close to 2e2/h. Here, we report a quantized conductance plateau at 2e2/h in the zero-bias conductance measured in InSb semiconductor nanowires covered with an Al superconducting shell. Our ZBP-height remains constant despite changing parameters such as the magnetic field and tunnel coupling, i.e. a quantized conductance plateau. We distinguish this quantized Majorana peak from possible non-Majorana origins, by investigating its robustness on electric and magnetic fields as well as its temperature dependence. The observation of a quantized conductance plateau strongly supports the existence of non-Abelian Majorana zero-modes in the system, consequently paving the way for future braiding experiments.Comment: 5 figure