Application of Single-Station Sigma and Site-Response Characterization in a Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis for a New Nuclear Site

Aleatory variability in ground-motion prediction, represented by the standard deviation (sigma) of a ground-motion prediction equation, exerts a very strong influence on the results of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). This is especially so at the low annual exceedance frequencies considered for nuclear facilities; in these cases, even small reductions in sigma can have a marked effect on the hazard estimates. Proper separation and quantification of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty can lead to defensible reductions in sigma. One such approach is the single-station sigma concept, which removes that part of sigma corresponding to repeatable site-specific effects. However, the site-to-site component must then be constrained by site-specific measurements or else modeled as epistemic uncertainty and incorporated into the modeling of site effects. The practical application of the single-station sigma concept, including the characterization of the dynamic properties of the site and the incorporation of site-response effects into the hazard calculations, is illustrated for a PSHA conducted at a rock site under consideration for the potential construction of a nuclear power plant.Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineerin

Crystal structure and substrate specificity of the thermophilic serine:pyruvate aminotransferase from Sulfolobus solfataricus.

Journal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tThe three-dimensional structure of the Sulfolobus solfataricus serine:pyruvate aminotransferase has been determined to 1.8 Å resolution. The structure of the protein is a homodimer that adopts the type I fold of pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP)-dependent aminotransferases. The structure revealed the PLP cofactor covalently bound in the active site to the active-site lysine in the internal aldimine form. The structure of the S. solfataricus enzyme was also determined with an amino form of the cofactor pyridoxamine 5'-phosphate bound in the active site and in complex with gabaculine, an aminotransferase inhibitor. These structures showed the changes in the enzyme active site during the course of the catalytic reaction. A comparison of the structure of the S. solfataricus enzyme with that of the closely related alanine:glyoxylate aminotransferase has identified structural features that are proposed to be responsible for the differences in substrate specificity between the two enzymes. These results have been complemented by biochemical studies of the substrate specificity and thermostability of the S. solfataricus enzyme.University of ExeterBBSRCEPSRCWellcome Trus

Interpreting intraplate tectonics for seismic hazard : a UK historical perspective

It is notoriously difficult to construct seismic source models for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in intraplate areas on the basis of geological information, and many practitioners have given up the task in favour of purely seismicity-based models. This risks losing potentially valuable information in regions where the earthquake catalogue is short compared to the seismic cycle. It is interesting to survey how attitudes to this issue have evolved over the past 30 years. This paper takes the UK as an example, and traces the evolution of seismic source models through generations of hazard studies. It is found that in the UK, while the earliest studies did not consider regional tectonics in any way, there has been a gradual evolution towards more tectonically based models. Experience in other countries, of course, may differ

Imbibition in mesoporous silica: rheological concepts and experiments on water and a liquid crystal

We present, along with some fundamental concepts regarding imbibition of liquids in porous hosts, an experimental, gravimetric study on the capillarity-driven invasion dynamics of water and of the rod-like liquid crystal octyloxycyanobiphenyl (8OCB) in networks of pores a few nanometers across in monolithic silica glass (Vycor). We observe, in agreement with theoretical predictions, square root of time invasion dynamics and a sticky velocity boundary condition for both liquids investigated. Temperature-dependent spontaneous imbibition experiments on 8OCB reveal the existence of a paranematic phase due to the molecular alignment induced by the pore walls even at temperatures well beyond the clearing point. The ever present velocity gradient in the pores is likely to further enhance this ordering phenomenon and prevent any layering in molecular stacks, eventually resulting in a suppression of the smectic phase in favor of the nematic phase.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figure

The Meta-Evaluation Problem in Explainable AI: Identifying Reliable Estimators with MetaQuantus

Explainable AI (XAI) is a rapidly evolving field that aims to improve transparency and trustworthiness of AI systems to humans. One of the unsolved challenges in XAI is estimating the performance of these explanation methods for neural networks, which has resulted in numerous competing metrics with little to no indication of which one is to be preferred. In this paper, to identify the most reliable evaluation method in a given explainability context, we propose MetaQuantus -- a simple yet powerful framework that meta-evaluates two complementary performance characteristics of an evaluation method: its resilience to noise and reactivity to randomness. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through a series of experiments, targeting various open questions in XAI, such as the selection of explanation methods and optimisation of hyperparameters of a given metric. We release our work under an open-source license to serve as a development tool for XAI researchers and Machine Learning (ML) practitioners to verify and benchmark newly constructed metrics (i.e., ``estimators'' of explanation quality). With this work, we provide clear and theoretically-grounded guidance for building reliable evaluation methods, thus facilitating standardisation and reproducibility in the field of XAI.Comment: 30 pages, 12 figures, 3 table

Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Developing a model for the prediction of ground motions due to earthquakes in the Groningen gas field

Major efforts are being undertaken to quantify seismic hazard and risk due to production-induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field as the basis for rational decision-making about mitigation measures. An essential element is a model to estimate surface ground motions expected at any location for each earthquake originating within the gas reservoir. Taking advantage of the excellent geological and geophysical characterisation of the field and a growing database of ground-motion recordings, models have been developed for predicting response spectral accelerations, peak ground velocity and ground-motion durations for a wide range of magnitudes. The models reflect the unique source and travel path characteristics of the Groningen earthquakes, and account for the inevitable uncertainty in extrapolating from the small observed magnitudes to potential larger events. The predictions of ground-motion amplitudes include the effects of nonlinear site response of the relatively soft near-surface deposits throughou t the field