Estimating the Probability of Clonal Relatedness of Pairs of Tumors in Cancer Patients

Next generation sequencing panels are being used increasingly in cancer research to study tumor evolution. A specific statistical challenge is to compare the mutational profiles in different tumors from a patient to determine the strength of evidence that the tumors are clonally related, i.e. derived from a single, founder clonal cell. The presence of identical mutations in each tumor provides evidence of clonal relatedness, although the strength of evidence from a match is related to how commonly the mutation is seen in the tumor type under investigation. This evidence must be weighed against the evidence in favor of independent tumors from non-matching mutations. In this article we frame this challenge in the context of diagnosis using a novel random effects model. In this way, by analyzing a set of tumor pairs, we can estimate the proportion of cases that are clonally related in the sample as well as the individual diagnostic probabilities for each case. The method is illustrated using data from a study to determine the clonal relationship of lobular carcinoma in situ with subsequent invasive breast cancers where each tumor in the pair was subjected to whole exome sequencing. The statistical properties of the method are evaluated using simulations, demonstrating that the key model parameters are estimated with only modest bias in small samples

The impact of loco-regional recurrences on metastatic progression in early-stage breast cancer: a multistate model

To study whether the effects of prognostic factors associated with the occurrence of distant metastases (DM) at primary diagnosis change after the incidence of loco-regional recurrences (LRR) among women treated for invasive stage I or II breast cancer. The study population consisted of 3,601 women, enrolled in EORTC trials 10801, 10854, or 10902 treated for early-stage breast cancer. Data were analysed in a multivariate, multistate model by using multivariate Cox regression models, including a state-dependent covariate. The presence of a LRR in itself is a significant prognostic risk factor (HR: 3.64; 95%-CI: 2.02-6.5) for the occurrence of DM. Main prognostic risk factors for a DM are young age at diagnosis (</=40: HR: 1.79; 95%-CI: 1.28-2.51), larger tumour size (HR: 1.58; 95%-CI: 1.35-1.84) and node positivity (HR: 2.00; 95%-CI: 1.74-2.30). Adjuvant chemotherapy is protective for a DM (HR: 0.66; 95%-CI: 0.55-0.80). After the occurrence of a LRR the latter protective effect has disappeared (P = 0.009). The presence of LRR in itself is a significant risk factor for DM. For patients who are at risk of developing LRR, effective local control should be the main target of therapy

High rates of breast conservation for large ductal and lobular invasive carcinomas combining multimodality strategies

The literature reports low rates of breast conservation after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for operable breast cancers not amenable to initial breast-conserving surgery. This study aims to compare the outcome of lobular vs ductal carcinomas after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Between 1989 and 1999, 750 patients with clinical stage II/IIIA ductal (672) or lobular (78) invasive breast carcinomas were treated at the Institut Curie with primary anthracycline-based polychemotherapy followed by either breast conservation (surgery and/or radiotherapy) or mastectomy. Median follow-up was 10 years. Clinical response to primary chemotherapy was significantly worse for lobular than for ductal carcinomas (47 vs 60%; P=0.04), but only histological grade remained predictive in multivariate analysis. Breast conservation was high for both ductal and lobular carcinomas (65 and 54%; P=0.07), due, in part, to the use of radiotherapy, either exclusive or preoperative, for respectively 26 and 40% of patients. The lobular type had no adverse effect, neither on locoregional control nor on overall survival, even in the group of patients treated with breast conservation

Are ipsilateral breast tumour invasive recurrences in young (⩽40 years) women more aggressive than their primary tumours?

The characteristics of ipsilateral breast tumour recurrences (IBTRs) relative to those of their primary tumours (PTs) remain scarcely studied. Of 70 young (⩽40 years) premenopausal women with IBTRs, we studied a series of 63 with paired histological data. Median follow-up since IBTR was 10 years. Rates of histological types, grades or hormonal receptors were not significantly different in PTs and in IBTRs. The concordance between IBTRs and their PTs was good for histological types. IBTRs with conserved histological types tended to occur more locally, but not significantly sooner than others. These IBTRs had good concordance for hormone receptors. In discordant cases there were as many losses as appearances of the receptors. The concordance was weak for grades, with equivalent numbers of IBTRs graded lower as higher than their PTs. The 10-year overall survival rate was 70%. Neither the conservation of histological type, location, nor of the two combined were associated with deaths. Early (<2 years) IBTRs, tended to be associated with poorer survival (HR=2.24 (0.92–5.41); P=0.08). IBTRs did not display features of higher aggressiveness than PTs. Neither clinical nor histological definition of a true recurrence could be established other than the conservation of the histological type

Atypical ductal hyperplasia is a multipotent precursor of breast carcinoma

The current model for breast cancer progression proposes independent “low‐grade (LG) like” and “high‐grade (HG) like” pathways but lacks a known precursor to HG cancer. We applied low coverage whole genome sequencing to atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) with and without carcinoma to shed light on breast cancer progression. 14/20 isolated ADH cases harboured at least one copy number alteration (CNA), but had fewer aberrations than LG or HG ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). ADH carried more HG‐like CNA than LG DCIS (eg. 8q gain). Correspondingly, 64% (7/11) of ADH cases with synchronous HG carcinoma were clonally related, similar to LG carcinoma (67%, 6/9). This study represents a significant shift in our understanding of breast cancer progression, with ADH as a common precursor lesion to the independent “low‐grade like” and “high‐grade like” pathways. These data suggest that ADH can be a precursor of HG breast cancer and that LG and HG carcinomas can evolve from a similar ancestor lesion. We propose that although LG DCIS may be committed to a LG molecular pathway, ADH may remain multipotent, progressing to either LG or HG carcinoma. This multipotent nature suggests that some ADH could be more clinically significant than LG DCIS, requiring biomarkers for personalising management