21 research outputs found
A simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Belt
In the Netherlands there has been nationwide vaccination against the measles since 1976. However, in small clustered communities of orthodox Protestants there is widespread refusal of the vaccine. After 1976, three large outbreaks with about 3000 reported cases of the measles have occurred among these orthodox Protestants. The outbreaks appear to occur about every twelve years. We show how a simple Kermack-McKendrick-like model can quantitatively account for the periodic outbreaks. Approximate analytic formulae to connect the period, size, and outbreak duration are derived. With an enhanced model we take the latency period in account. We also expand the model to follow how different age groups are affected. Like other researchers using other methods, we conclude that large scale underreporting of the disease must occur
AbundĂąncia de Stomoxys calcitrans (Diptera: Muscidae) em diferentes subprodutos canavieiros
Supplementary Material for: The Mortality and Myocardial Effects of Antidepressants Are Moderated by Preexisting Cardiovascular Disease: A Meta-Analysis
<p><b><i>Background:</i></b> Antidepressants (ADs) are commonly
prescribed medications, but their long-term health effects are debated.
ADs disrupt multiple adaptive processes regulated by evolutionarily
ancient biochemicals, potentially increasing mortality. However, many
ADs also have anticlotting properties that can be efficacious in
treating cardiovascular disease. We conducted a meta-analysis assessing
the effects of ADs on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events in
general-population and cardiovascular-patient samples. <b><i>Methods:</i></b>
Two reviewers independently assessed articles from PubMed, EMBASE, and
Google Scholar for AD-related mortality controlling for depression and
other comorbidities. From these articles, we extracted information about
cardiovascular events, cardiovascular risk status, and AD class. We
conducted mixed-effect meta-analyses testing sample type and AD class as
moderators of all-cause mortality and new cardiovascular events. <b><i>Results:</i></b>
Seventeen studies met our search criteria. Sample type consistently
moderated health risks. In general-population samples, AD use increased
the risks of mortality (HR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.14-1.55) and new
cardiovascular events (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.08-1.21). In cardiovascular
patients, AD use did not significantly affect risks. AD class also
moderated mortality, but the serotonin reuptake inhibitors were not
significantly different from tricyclic ADs (TCAs) (HR = 1.10, 95% CI:
0.93-1.31, <i>p</i> = 0.27). Only âother ADsâ were differentiable from
TCAs (HR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.08-1.69). Mortality risk estimates increased
when we analyzed the subset of studies controlling for premedication
depression, suggesting the absence of confounding by indication. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> The results support the hypothesis that ADs are harmful in the general population but less harmful in cardiovascular patients.</p