MPEC 2020-A99: 2020 AV2

[no abstract

`Oumuamua as a messenger from the Local Association

7 pages, one table, two figures, accepted for publication by ApJL. © 2018. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.With a hyperbolic trajectory around the Sun, 'Oumuamua is the first confirmed interstellar object. However, its origin is poorly known. By simulating the orbits of 0.23 million local stars, we find 109 encounters with periastron less than 5 pc. 'Oumuamua's low peculiar velocity is suggestive of its origin from a young stellar association with similar velocity. In particular, we find that 'Oumuamua would have had slow encounters with at least five young stars belonging to the Local Association, thus suggesting these as plausible sites for formation and ejection. In addition to an extremely elongated shape, the available observational data for 'Oumuamua indicates a red color, suggestive of a potentially organic-rich and activity-free surface. These characteristics seem consistent with formation through energetic collisions between planets and debris objects in the middle part of a young stellar system. We estimate an abundance of at least 6.0 × 10 -3 au -3 for such interstellar objects with mean diameter larger than 100 m and find that it is likely that most of them will be ejected into the Galactic halo. Our Bayesian analysis of the available light curves indicates a rotation period of 6.96 +1.45 -0.39, which is consistent with the estimation by Meech et al. and shorter than those in other literature. The codes and results are available on GitHub (https://github.com/phillippro/Oumuamua).Peer reviewe

Evaluation of a commercial E(rns)-capture ELISA for detection of BVDV in routine diagnostic cattle serum samples

BACKGROUND: Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is an important pathogen in cattle. The ability of the virus to cross the placenta during early pregnancy can result in the birth of persistently infected (PI) calves. These calves shed the virus during their entire lifespan and are the key transmitters of infection. Consequently, identification (and subsequent removal) of PI animals is necessary to rapidly clear infected herds from the virus. The objective of this study was to evaluate the suitability of a commercial E(rns)-capture ELISA, in comparison to the indirect immunoperoxidase test (IPX), for routine diagnostic detection of BVDV within a control programme. In addition, the effect of passive immunity and heat-inactivation of the samples on the performance of the ELISA was studied. METHODS: In the process of virus clearance within the Swedish BVDV control programme, all calves born in infected herds are tested for virus and antibodies. From such samples, sent in for routine diagnostics to SVA, we selected 220 sera collected from 32 beef herds and 29 dairy herds. All sera were tested for BVDV antigen using the E(rns )ELISA, and the results were compared to the results from the IPX used within the routine diagnostics. RESULTS: All 130 samples categorized as virus negative by IPX were tested negative in the ELISA, and all 90 samples categorized as virus positive were tested positive, i.e. the relative sensitivity and specificity of the ELISA was 100% in relation to IPX, and the agreement between the tests was perfect. CONCLUSION: We can conclude that the E(rns )ELISA is a valid alternative that has several advantages compared to IPX. Our results clearly demonstrate that it performs well under Swedish conditions, and that its performance is comparable with the IPX test. It is highly sensitive and specific, can be used for testing of heat-inactivated samples, precolostral testing, and probably to detect PI animals at an earlier age than the IPX

A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20% to 30% of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2{\deg}C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2{\deg}C target after a particular development threshold is reached. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2{\deg}C.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

A Bayesian General Linear Modeling Approach to Cortical Surface fMRI Data Analysis

Cortical surface functional magnetic resonance imaging (cs-fMRI) has recently grown in popularity versus traditional volumetric fMRI. In addition to offering better whole-brain visualization, dimension reduction, removal of extraneous tissue types, and improved alignment of cortical areas across subjects, it is also more compatible with common assumptions of Bayesian spatial models. However, as no spatial Bayesian model has been proposed for cs-fMRI data, most analyses continue to employ the classical general linear model (GLM), a “massive univariate” approach. Here, we propose a spatial Bayesian GLM for cs-fMRI, which employs a class of sophisticated spatial processes to model latent activation fields. We make several advances compared with existing spatial Bayesian models for volumetric fMRI. First, we use integrated nested Laplacian approximations, a highly accurate and efficient Bayesian computation technique, rather than variational Bayes. To identify regions of activation, we utilize an excursions set method based on the joint posterior distribution of the latent fields, rather than the marginal distribution at each location. Finally, we propose the first multi-subject spatial Bayesian modeling approach, which addresses a major gap in the existing literature. The methods are very computationally advantageous and are validated through simulation studies and two task fMRI studies from the Human Connectome Project. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement

Palomar discovery and initial characterization of naked-eye long period comet C/2022 E3 (ZTF)

Long-period comets are planetesimal remnants constraining the environment and volatiles of the protoplanetary disc. We report the discovery of hyperbolic long-period comet C/2022 E3 (ZTF), which has a perihelion $\sim$1.11 au, an eccentricity $\gtrsim$1 and an inclination $\sim$109$^{\circ}$, from images taken with the Palomar 48-inch telescope during morning twilight on 2022 Mar 2. Additionally, we report the characterization of C/2022 E3 (ZTF) from observations taken with the Palomar 200-inch, the Palomar 60-inch, and the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility in early 2023 February to 2023 March when the comet passed within $\sim$0.28 au of the Earth and reached a visible magnitude of $\sim$5. We measure g-r = 0.70$\pm$0.01, r-i = 0.20$\pm$0.01, i-z = 0.06$\pm$0.01, z-J = 0.90$\pm$0.01, J-H = 0.38$\pm$0.01 and H-K = 0.15$\pm$0.01 colours for the comet from observations. We measure the A(0$^\circ$)f$\rho$ (0.8~$\mu$m) in a 6500~km radius from the nucleus of 1483$\pm$40~cm, and CN, C$_3$, and C$_2$ production of 5.43$\pm0.11\times$10$^{25}$~mol/s, 2.01$\pm0.04\times$10$^{24}$, and 3.08$\pm0.5\times$10$^{25}$~mol/s, similar to other long period comets. We additionally observe the appearance of jet-like structures at a scale of $\sim$4,000 km in wide-field g-band images, which may be caused by the presence of CN gas in the near-nucleus coma.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS:L, 9 pages, 6 figures, 2 table

An interdisciplinary system dynamics model for post-disaster housing recovery

Many previous disasters have demonstrated the need for extensive personal, public, and governmental expenditures for housing recovery highlighting the importance of studying housing recovery. Yet, much research is still needed to fully understand the multi-faceted and complex nature of housing recovery. The goal of this paper is to present a holistic model to further the understanding of the dynamic processes and interdependencies of housing recovery. The impetus for this work is that inequalities in housing recovery could be addressed more effectively if we better understood interconnected factors and dynamic processes that slow down recovery for some. Currently, there is a lack of understanding about such factors and processes. Literature from engineering and social sciences was reviewed to develop an integrated system dynamics model for post-disaster housing recovery. While it is beyond current capabilities to quantify such complexities, the presented model takes a major stride toward articulating the complex phenomenon that is housing recovery